Articulos científicos en contra del calentamiento antropogénico

Una teoria cientifica no se demuestra por votacion. Si asi fuera  el sol seguiria dando vueltas alrededor de la tierra

( a mayor experiencia mas claro tienen el apoyo a ese consenso).

Saludos, 

Y cuando se jubilan y pueden hablar libremente, se muestran escépticos. Porqué será??

Cita de: ARREBOLADA en Miércoles 11 Agosto 2010 16:48:12 pm

( a mayor experiencia mas claro tienen el apoyo a ese consenso).

Saludos, 

Y cuando se jubilan y pueden hablar libremente, se muestran escépticos. Porqué será??

Se suele decir que por cosas de la vida.


Saludos,

Creo que este "paper" de Zheng ya se citó ¿?

Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lowe reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years

Winter half-year temperature
reconstruction for the middle and lower
reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze
River, China, during the past 2000 years
Q. Ge, X. Zhang and P. Zhang
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural
Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese
Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101,
China
J. Zheng
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural
Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese
Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101,
China and Department of Resources and
Environment Sciences, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
X. Fang and Z. Man
Institute of Chinese History and Geography,
Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
W-C. Wang
Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State
University of New York, Albany, NY12202, USA
ABSTRACT
Phenological cold/warm events recorded in Chinese historical documents are used to reconstruct, at 10–30 years' resolution, winter half-year (October to April) temperatures for the past 2000 years in the central region of eastern China. Because of the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of the phenological records, the reconstruction of the regional mean temperature involves two steps:
reconstruction for individual sites within the region and calculation of the regional mean. For a single site, the reconstruction involves: identifying the difference in dates in phenological events for both historical and modern records; establishing the conversion function between the date difference and temperature change from the modern records; and converting the historical records into temperature variation. The spatial representativeness of the individual sites is studied by examining the correlation between individual sites and regional mean temperature from modern instrumental data. The correlation is then used as the basis for constructing the regional mean winter half-year temperature for the past 2000 years. From the beginning of the Christian era, climate became cooler at a rate of 0.17°C per century, and around the AD 490s temperature reached about 1°C lower than that of the present (the 1951– 80 mean). Then, abruptly, temperature entered a warm epoch from the AD 570s to 1310s with a warming trend of 0.04°C per century; the peak warming was about 0.3–0.6°C higher than present for 30-year periods, but over 0.9°C warmer on a 10-year basis. After the AD 1310s, temperature decreased rapidly at a rate of 0.10°C per century; the mean temperatures of the four cold troughs were 0.6–0.9°C lower than the present, with the coldes value 1.1°C lower. Temperature has been rising rapidly during the twentieth century, especially for the period 1981–99, and the mean temperature is now 0.5°C higher tha for 1951–80. The most interesting aspect over the past 2000 years has been the rapid transitions between cold and warm periods.

Creo que este "paper" de Zheng ya se citó ¿?

Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lowe reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years

Citar

Winter half-year temperature
reconstruction for the middle and lower
reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze
River, China, during the past 2000 years
Q. Ge, X. Zhang and P. Zhang
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural
Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese
Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101,
China
J. Zheng
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural
Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese
Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101,
China and Department of Resources and
Environment Sciences, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
X. Fang and Z. Man
Institute of Chinese History and Geography,
Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
W-C. Wang
Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State
University of New York, Albany, NY12202, USA
ABSTRACT
Phenological cold/warm events recorded in Chinese historical documents are used to reconstruct, at 10–30 years' resolution, winter half-year (October to April) temperatures for the past 2000 years in the central region of eastern China. Because of the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of the phenological records, the reconstruction of the regional mean temperature involves two steps:
reconstruction for individual sites within the region and calculation of the regional mean. For a single site, the reconstruction involves: identifying the difference in dates in phenological events for both historical and modern records; establishing the conversion function between the date difference and temperature change from the modern records; and converting the historical records into temperature variation. The spatial representativeness of the individual sites is studied by examining the correlation between individual sites and regional mean temperature from modern instrumental data. The correlation is then used as the basis for constructing the regional mean winter half-year temperature for the past 2000 years. From the beginning of the Christian era, climate became cooler at a rate of 0.17°C per century, and around the AD 490s temperature reached about 1°C lower than that of the present (the 1951– 80 mean). Then, abruptly, temperature entered a warm epoch from the AD 570s to 1310s with a warming trend of 0.04°C per century; the peak warming was about 0.3–0.6°C higher than present for 30-year periods, but over 0.9°C warmer on a 10-year basis. After the AD 1310s, temperature decreased rapidly at a rate of 0.10°C per century; the mean temperatures of the four cold troughs were 0.6–0.9°C lower than the present, with the coldes value 1.1°C lower. Temperature has been rising rapidly during the twentieth century, especially for the period 1981–99, and the mean temperature is now 0.5°C higher tha for 1951–80. The most interesting aspect over the past 2000 years has been the rapid transitions between cold and warm periods.

Lo siento, pero dudo mucho que con unos documentos chinos antiguos de 2000 años se pueda llegar a esa precisión de decimas (y centesimas) de grado.

Saludos,

los datos referidos los da como "about", "around", "over",
si te lees el documento adjunto podrás ver la metodología y los márgenes de error.

los datos referidos los da como "about", "around", "over",
si te lees el documento adjunto podrás ver la metodología y los márgenes de error.

Es interesante el articulo. Una reconstrucción a partir de datos fenológicos de varias especies vegetales y en unos meses en concreto de cada uno de esos años.
Si esos registros son ciertos, los chinos me vuelven a sorprender.

Saludos,

Cita de: ARREBOLADA en Miércoles 11 Agosto 2010 16:48:12 pm

( a mayor experiencia mas claro tienen el apoyo a ese consenso).

Saludos, 

Y cuando se jubilan y pueden hablar libremente, se muestran escépticos. Porqué será??

Para mayores detalles os recomiendo el libro de Garth Paltridge "The Climate Caper".  Paltridge era "Chief Research Scientist with the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research" y le dejaron muy claro que su presupuesto peligraba si no dejaba de lado algunas criticas bastante tibias al IPCC.  Ahi peligraba no solo su trabajo sino el de un monton de investigadores que trabajaban en su centro, asi que decidio postergar las criticas hasta despues de la jubilacion.

Parece que está siendo una realidad (y sin mirar a nadie) que según tu ideología ambiental (incluso política) acabe con una reducción o retirada total de subvenciones públicas.
Hay casos en que la retirada lo es por que ese dinero se ha usado para una investigación distinta para la que fué destinado.

Saludos,

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/08/our-jgr-paper-on-feedbacks-is-published/

Roy Spencer pone dudas a la retroalimentación positiva. Artículo revisado y publicado en  Journal of Geophysical Research

As we show in the new paper, the only clear signal of feedback we ever find in the global average satellite data is strongly negative, around 6 Watts per sq. meter per degree C. If this was the feedback operating on the long-term warming from increasing CO2, it would result in only 0.6 deg. C of warming from 2XCO2. (Since we have already experienced this level of warming, it raises the issue of whether some portion — maybe even a majority — of past warming is from natural, rather than anthropogenic, causes.)

Y ya fuera del artículo, su opinión personal (y discutible):

Unfortunately, there is no way I have found to demonstrate that this strongly negative feedback is actually occurring on the long time scales involved in anthropogenic global warming. At this point, I think that belief in the high climate sensitivity (positive feedbacks) in the current crop of climate models is a matter of faith, not unbiased science. The models are infinitely adjustable, and modelers stop adjusting when they get model behavior that reinforces their pre-conceived notions.

Cita de: Vigorro... en Martes 03 Agosto 2010 12:13:43 pm

Me pregunto si esos pobres tres cientificos obtuvieron sus conocimientos en una tombola o mediante trabajo y esfuerzo...

Hay gente que aprueba por amiguismo.

Se me olvidaba esto...

A ver si lo entiendo... ¿quieres decir que aquellos cientificos que no estan con lo oficial, en realidad no lo son?... ¿que las unicas voces que sirven son aquellas alineadas totalmente con lo oficial?... curiosa forma de pensar: aquel que diga lo mismo que lo oficial es un cientifico, aquel que lo haga en contra es un enchufado...

Muy buenas,


Quizá me expliqué mal o la respuesta que dí es tan corta que dá lugar a confusión.

Todos sabemos que hay mucho amiguismo en la Universidad (de vez en cuando lo dice algún politico) o la inversa (enemiguismo, ribalidad, mobing, etc.) y en algunos casos entran familiares (sin relacionarlo con el tema climático) que cada Gobierno que entra quiere tratar, no sé si con exito.

Discrepar, también está dentro de lo científico, si se hace razonadamente y con fundamento.

Por supuesto, por el hecho de no coincidir con lo oficial no te quita tu condición de lo que eres, un científico, UN GIMNASTA INTELECTUAL.

En España, los que tienen alguna postura exceptica, tienen igual formación y capacidad o mejor que la de otros cientificos que coinciden con lo oficial.

Saludos,