Como me gustan los boletines de MauritiusMauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 30 2011
At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa)
located at 13.8S 77.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots
with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.Dvorak Intensity:
Storm Force Winds
40 NM radius from the center
Gale Force Winds
50 NM from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southern semi-circle
Near Gale Force Winds
90 NM from the center extending up to 230 NM in the southern semi-circle
Forecast and Intensity
12 HRS: 14.6S 76.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.5S 75.3E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)48 HRS: 17.9S 74.2E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 20.2S 72.9E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
again and shows temporarily an eye
on METEOSAT 7 infrared imagery from 1500z to 1630z. Instantaneous Dvorak analysis has consequently fluctuated within the last 6 hours and mentioned intensity for this fix is an average over this period. Wind extension has been recalibrated thanks to 1645z ASCAT swath. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models are globally in good agreement to forecast a southwestward track within the next 72 hours under the combined steering influence of a mid level ridge existing east of the system and polar trough transiting in the south. Multi-ensembled numerical weather prediction models (EPS, GEFS and PEARP) plumes show low dispersion and converge also to this scenario. There is some discrepencies about chronology between deterministic numerical weather prediction models. ECMWF one is faster than ARPEGE, GFS and the American consensus ones.
Beyond 72 hours, system is expected to rapidly weaken over marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S and strengthening westerly wind shear. Multi-ensemble suggest then more dispersion between the members.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services
on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..