553
wtxs31 pgtw 070300
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone 03s (three) warning nr 001//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 03s (three) warning nr 001
01 active tropical cyclone in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
070000z --- near 8.5s 81.9e
movement past six hours - 270 degrees at 08 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 8.5s 81.9e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
071200z --- 8.9s 79.8e
Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
050 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
045 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 250 deg/ 13 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
080000z --- 9.7s 77.2e
Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
060 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 260 deg/ 13 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
081200z --- 10.2s 74.7e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 260 deg/ 11 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
090000z --- 10.5s 72.4e
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
085 nm southeast quadrant
080 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 270 deg/ 11 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
100000z --- 10.6s 67.9e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant
090 nm southeast quadrant
090 nm southwest quadrant
085 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 270 deg/ 11 kts
---
long range outlook:
note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity
near 20 kt each day.
---
96 hrs, valid at:
110000z --- 10.5s 63.6e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 120 hr posit: 265 deg/ 09 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
120000z --- 10.9s 60.1e
Max sustained winds -
065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
---
remarks:
070300z position near 8.6s 81.4e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 03s (three), located approximately 570 nm east
of Diego Garcia, has tracked westward at 08 knots over the past six
hours. Recent animated infrared satellite imagery and a 062050z trmm
image show improved convective banding wrapping into a low level
circulation center. A 062330z pgtw Dvorak value of 2.5 and improving
structure evident in the aforementioned trmm image indicate that
maximum sustained wind speeds have increased to the 35 knot warning
intensity threshold. Tc 03s is tracking westward along the northern
periphery of a mid-level subtropical steering ridge to the east-
southeast. An approaching midlatitude trough is expected to weaken
the steering ridge, inducing a poleward stairstep in the storm track
through about tau 36. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge will build
in the wake of the midlatitude trough and tc 03s will resume a
westward track. Tc 03s is located equatorward of an upper-level
ridge axis, in an area of low to moderate easterly vertical wind
shear and goodd poleward outflow. The system will intensify over
the next 72 hours as these favorable upper level conditions persist.
Thereafter, the intensity is expected to level off as along track
ocean heat content decreases and vertical wind shear increases
slightly. The available numerical model guidance is in fair
agreement with this storm track forecast, with all models
forecasting a steady westward track. This warning supersedes and
cancels ref a, navmarfcstcen 061121z Dec 09 tropical cyclone
formation alert (wtxs21 pgtw 061130). Maximum significant wave
height at 070000z is 11 feet. Next warnings at 071500z and 080300z.//
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