Ciclón tropical JOALANE (Huracán Cat. 2. 22-S. Isla de Reunión - Indico Sur)

El segundo en discordia. Y además viendo modelos, parece que puede convertirse en un buen bicho. Pico de intensidad provisional previsto de 100 kts.

REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED EVEN AS
THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT ON THE 052208Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10
DEGREES EAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR.
CONCURRENTLY, A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH
WILL INFLUENCE THE STORM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RENDERING 22S IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY SITUATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE NER WILL EMERGE AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS
TC 22S TRANSITIONS BETWEEN TWO DRIVING FORCES, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 96, AFTER ITS EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
AFTERWARDS, THE VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, CAUSING GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, TENTATIVELY LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10
FEET.

22SJOALANE.45kts-989mb-136S-623E

JOALANE a punto de llegar a la Cat. 2 S.S. con 80 kts-963 mb en un claro proceso de RI.

JOALANE alcanza la Categoría 2 S.S. pero la exposición de su OJO a la intrusión de bandas espirales de aire seco, comienza a pasarle factura, tal como se ve en las últimas imágenes del SAT. Sin embargo el JTWC pronostica que  el sistema va a aprovechar ese aire seco, rodeándolo de nueva convección y confinándolo en su centro, para continuar profundizándose en las próximas 36 horas. Veremos.

Sistema en declive camino del Sur. Tiene las horas contadas.

Pues ha dado un nuevo repunte en las últimas horas y sube de nuevo a los 90 kts. De todas formas, sigue bajando de latitud, con lo que las condiciones actuales no harán más que empeorar.