Ciclón Tropical KOMEN (02-B SW Chittagong - Bangladesh - Indico Norte)

El IMD ya llevaba varias jornadas vigilando a este sistema, porque podría dar algo de sí, a pesar de su interacción con tierra firme. Se cumplieron sus presagios y alcanza ya fuerza de Tormenta Tropical con 35 Kts. El JTWC y algunos modelos dinámicos le dan poco desarrollo, si acaso alcanzará los 40 kts. pero en el sitio donde está ubicado y en plena época de Monzones, las lluvias torrenciales van a hacer mucha pupa.

REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 91.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282042Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH
ADDITIONAL BANDING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.
THE SSMI IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A COMPACT LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND
SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY FIX OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, A
TUTT LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST IS ADVECTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW
(5-10 KNOT) ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE BUT INCREASES TO MODERATE
LEVELS (20-25 KNOT) FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 31 CELSIUS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 02B IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 24 PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING TO
A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL FORCE
THE CYCLONE TO TURN POLEWARD AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02B WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS. BEYOND
TAU 24, TC 02B WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF CHITTAGONG,
BANGLADESH AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.