Ciclón Tropical RUSTY Cat.4 (17.S. Huracán Categoría 2 S.S - NW Australia )

Desde hace ya varios días atrás vienen los modelos globales insistiendo en la generación de un potente sistema ciclónico en pleno Timor Sea, y que en estos momentos ya se puede confirmar que se organizará, y que impactara de manera directa contra las costas del noroeste de Australia.



Mucho "ojo", pues puede hacer mucho daño.

Lanzada por parte de la marina la alerta por formación ciclónica, y primer aviso contundente de la agencia australiana.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
Issued at 23/0300Z

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1244 UTC 23/02/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 117.9E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/0000: 16.2S 117.4E: 065 [120]: 030 [055]: 992
+24: 24/1200: 16.9S 117.8E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 987
+36: 25/0000: 17.3S 118.1E: 100 [180]: 055 [100]: 976
+48: 25/1200: 17.8S 118.4E: 120 [220]: 070 [130]: 965
+60: 26/0000: 18.5S 118.5E: 140 [255]: 080 [150]: 954
+72: 26/1200: 19.3S 118.8E: 155 [290]: 090 [165]: 944
REMARKS:
The centre is difficult to locate and is based on recent CB blowup and
extrapolated motion.

The system has failed to develop in the last 6 hours with satellite imagery
showing less curvature than earlier on Saturday. Dvorak DT is difficult to
assign on the past few images. Slight development over 24 hours gives MET of 1.5
but Final T held at 2.0 due to contraints.

Despite the lack of recent development,conditions are still favourable for
intensification. Shear is low, SSTs are very high and there is not expected to
be any dry air. Consequently it is expected to intensify steadily with a period
of rapid intensification likely at some stage. Although outflow is confined to
northern quadrants at present, by Monday the system should develop an outflow
channel to the south.

The system is expected to move slowly to the southwest before turning southwards
and then southeast as a mid-level trough passing to the south erodes the ridge.
Model guidance still shows some spread but amongst models that intensify the
system there is better agreement.

Ciclón Tropical Categoría I RUSTY
Ciclón extremadamente peligroso para los intereses australianos, pues se va a formar justo en frente de las costas del noroeste australiano, y que según la ultima actualización de los modelos... acabaría penetrando como un Categoría 4 en la escala australiana, justo por la zona de Port Hedland.



17SRUSTY.45kts-989mb-174S-1179E



Las condiciones ambientales son y serán en las próximas horas extremadamente favorables  para que el sistema se vea envuelto en un proceso de rápida intensificación.







 

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:52 pm WST on Sunday 24 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie
including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 1 was estimated to be
330 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
445 kilometres west of Broome and
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected
on the coast overnight between Wallal and Whim Creek and then extending north
to Broome during Monday.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday
and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe
tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the
crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement should result in higher
than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall
is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley
on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread heavy rainfall is likely to
lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the
Fortescue is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek need to prepare
for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit,
torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People between Whim Creek and Mardie and inland parts of the central and
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 118.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 985 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Monday 25 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

Orgía convectiva que rodea  rápidamente su LLCC en las ultimas horas... rápida organización, y topes muy fríos que están marcando valores por debajo de los -80 Cº, sin duda alguna Rusty esta viéndose inmerso en un potente proceso de rápida intensificación (RI).




 

Cloud Region Temp : -83.1C 

17S      RUSTY 130224 1800  17.7S  118.2E SHEM   60   978

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 2:57 am WST on Monday 25 February 2013

.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 118.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 978 hectoPascals



Predicción de precipitaciones superiores a los 500 mm en toda la zona costera afectada.



 

Los topes que esta generando Rusty son muy pero que muy bestia... un poco más y se sale de la escala de colores.

Predicción de precipitaciones superiores a los 500 mm en toda la zona costera afectada.

Atentos a las nuevas actualizaciones de las diferentes agencias oficiales, tanto el B.O.M (Australia), como los de la NAVY (EE.UU), pues muy posiblemente  Rusty pueda alcanzar la categoría 5 en la escala australiana, y 4 para la americana.

Decretado por el Gobierno Australiano el estado de emergencia en toda la zona de Port Hedland, donde han emitido un aviso de evacuación total de todos los residentes (19.000 personas).

Las primeras bandas en espiral comienzan a afectar de forma directa a dicha zona, y donde ya se han producido las dos primeras victimas mortales.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=FL-20130223-38300-AUS



Pinta a desastre total.

B.O.M emite el aviso numero 12...

Ciclón Tropical Rusty Categoría 2
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 5:48 am WST on Monday 25 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie
including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 2 was estimated to be
315 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
420 kilometres west of Broome and
was nearly stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected
to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during Monday morning,
before extending north towards Broome on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday gales
could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday
and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe
tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the
crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in
higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy
rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western
Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy
rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment.
Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek need to prepare
for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit,
torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People between Whim Creek and Mardie and inland parts of the central and
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 118.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals



 

GFS actualiza  deja al bicho estacionario y devastando toda la costa durante unas 72 horas.