Manchas solares/Sunspots: Seguimiento del Ciclo Solar (Links en primer post)

No es por nada, pero por el hemisferio sur esta emergiendo una mancha con la polaridad invertida..... ......http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/.... a ver como numeran la mancha solar, y como la definen.....

No es por nada, pero por el hemisferio sur esta emergiendo una mancha con la polaridad invertida..... ......http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/.... a ver como numeran la mancha solar, y como la definen.....

Pues en http://www.spaceweather.com/ y en http://solarcycle24.com/ se hacen los longuis (por el momento  ) y no hacen mencion de la polaridad invertida de la mancha solar aunque la numeran como 1047.....



...... no se mojan  , no sea que tengan que revisar las previsiones de ciclo "oficiales"  .

yo lo que estoy observando es que la actividad se limita casi exclusivamente al HN, en el sur es mucho más débil,

¿tenéis a mano alguna distribución temporal hemisférica de manchas?
¿sabéis si hay predominio en uno u otro hemisferio según ciclos o semiciclos?

 

bueno, ya tengo algo:

Abstract. The longitudinal distribution of sunspot activity for 1917-1995 is studied using vector sums of sunspot areas. It is shown that the sunspot distributions behave differently during the Ascending phase and Maximum (AM) of the solar cycle on one hand and for the Declining phase and Minimum (DM) on the other depicting maxima around roughly opposite longitudes. While the maximum of the distribution for the AM period is found around the Carrington longitude of 180◦, the maximum for the DM period is at the longitude of about 0◦.

Longitudinal asymmetry in sunspot activity during the ascending and descending phase of the solar cycle

Received: 4 July 1990  
Abstract  The distribution of the sunspots for the period 1967–1987 (solar cycles 20 and 21) is presented here. We find that the ±11–20° latitude belt is most prolific for the occurrence of various spot types irrespective of magnetic-field ranges. Furthermore, longitudinally sunspots occur most prolifically at six or more places on the Sun. Spatially 7–9 zones are present in each hemisphere (north or south) of the Sun where about 50% sunspots occur and occupy only about 4% area of the Sun. During the above cycles at least 5 flare zones were regularly present in each hemisphere. The existing models cannot explain these active zones on the Sun. Thus, the present analysis emphasizes the need for a new magnetic models of the Sun.

The distribution of sunspots over the Sun

Received: 21 October 1988  
Abstract  Positions of sunspots between 1966 and 1976 as observed at Kandilli Observatory were used to determine the differential rotation of the Sun. A total of 202 sunspot groups which were E, F, G, H, and J-types were chosen, and a least-squares solution was calculated with their daily rotations. A gradient difference was found between the two hemispheres of the Sun.

Solar rotation rate from stable sunspot tracings

July 2009.

Abstract

We have used the Lempel–Ziv measure to describe the complexity in sunspot activity during the solar cycles 18–23. In particular, we examined the time series of daily sunspot numbers in the northern and southern hemispheres in each of the six cycles and calculated the Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZC) value for each time series. Our results indicate that in the even cycles, the LZC values of the sunspot numbers in the two hemispheres are very close to each other, whereas in the odd cycles they differ significantly between the two hemispheres. We also find that within each hemisphere the LZC varies from cycle to cycle. This even–odd cycle parity reflects the variations in inter-hemispheric strengths of the solar magnetic field leading to different temporal distributions of sunspots in the two hemispheres. The degree of complexity may influence the predictability of sunspot activity in the two hemispheres during the various cycles. Although the physical implication of the results is not clear, these results may stimulate new ideas into modeling the complex dynamics of the solar dynamo.

Even–odd cycle parity in complexity of hemispheric sunspot activity

Abstract

The long-term records of sunspot area available separately for Northern and Southern Hemispheres have been investigated by means of cross-recurrence technique. Phase component of the north-south asymmetry was extracted. This measure demonstrates long-period systematic variations with the sign change of hemispheric leading in 1930s and 1960s. Moreover phase north-south asynchrony anticorrelates with the so called magnetic equator, which was defined as difference of the mean sunspot latitudes between two hemispheres. Relationships of the phase north-south asynchrony, magnetic equator and butterfly diagrams are presented and discussed.

North-south asynchrony and long-term variations of sunspot latitudes

ABSTRACT. Sunspot activity is usually represented by either sunspot numbers (SN) or sunspot areas (SA). The smoothed monthly mean SA and SN in the northern and southern hemispheres from 1945 January to 2008 March are used to investigate the characteristics of long-term hemispheric sunspot activity. Although sunspot activity (SA and SN) is found to begin one month earlier in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere on the average of the considered time interval, the shift is so small that no long-term systematic phase shift is statistically acceptable as a first-order effect, as suggested by White & Trotter. Sunspot activity never peaks at the same time in the two hemispheres. Although the Schwabe cycle appears in hemispheric sunspot activity, its period length slightly varies during the considered time interval and seems to be longer in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere on the average. Sunspot activity is asymmetrically distributed in the hemispheres, but the largest hemispheric diversity usually does not appear around the maximum time of a cycle. The diversity of SA, respectively, in the northern and southern hemispheres runs on the Sun similarly and synchronously as the diversity of SN does. Sunspot activity is slightly asynchronous in the hemispheres.

THE LONG-TERM HEMISPHERIC SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

¿podrían estas variaciones  estar relacionadas con un movimiento de precesión del sol?

yo lo que estoy observando es que la actividad se limita casi exclusivamente al HN, en el sur es mucho más débil,

¿tenéis a mano alguna distribución temporal hemisférica de manchas?
¿sabéis si hay predominio en uno u otro hemisferio según ciclos o semiciclos?

 

No he encontrado el diagrama de mariposa actualizado



En el diagrama de mariposa se puede ver claramente que la mayor actividad del hemisferio sur correspondía a latitudes bajas, es decir de ciclo 23. Las pocas manchas posteriores salieron en el hemisferio norte.
Aquí estan los datos provisionales oficiales del SIDC para enero por hemisferios donde gana claramente el norte:
http://sidc.oma.be/products/ri_hemispheric/

Muy buenas.
Alguien sabe si los arranques de los otros ciclos solares tuvieron erupciones de clase M6 o cercanas, crecimiento rápido de sus manchas, con buenas inyecciones de masa coronal...

Hemos pasado de días y días sin manchas, a tener mas de 71 manchas y alguna destacable como el grupo 1045 (sus manchas crecieron muy rápido). Sera normal, pero me sorprende este bicho y cada vez más.

Saludos.

Unos cracks estos de http://solarcycle24.com/,    simplemente pasan de la mancha 1047 .....

Solar Update - Sunspot 1045 has been much quieter the past 24 hours and only one M-Class flare and a few C-Class flares have taken place. This region still retains its magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration. The chances for strong X-Class flares are starting to fade.

Sunspot 1046 which is also in the northern hemisphere has shown slight growth over the past 12 hours. Keep an eye on this region over the next 24 hours.

Sunspot 1047 in the south is a small alpha sunspot and should disappear in the next 12 hours.

.....estan rezando para que desaparezca antes que las demas para evitar comentar su polaridad y su pertenecia al ciclo 23 o al 25 

yo lo que estoy observando es que la actividad se limita casi exclusivamente al HN, en el sur es mucho más débil,

¿tenéis a mano alguna distribución temporal hemisférica de manchas?
¿sabéis si hay predominio en uno u otro hemisferio según ciclos o semiciclos?

 

Y al respecto ya comentabamos cosas hace unos años
https://foro.tiempo.com/climatologia/datos+de+los+ciclos+solares+pasado+presente+y+futuro-t78639.0.html;msg1638235#msg1638235

Pues en el observatorio de Belgica 2 grupos, 26 manchas 

http://sidc.oma.be/images/last_ORBdrawing.jpg

Y se puede consultar también enlazado desde  la página de Spacewheather.com



saludos

Cita de: _00_ en Martes 09 Febrero 2010 22:37:31 pm

yo lo que estoy observando es que la actividad se limita casi exclusivamente al HN, en el sur es mucho más débil,

¿tenéis a mano alguna distribución temporal hemisférica de manchas?
¿sabéis si hay predominio en uno u otro hemisferio según ciclos o semiciclos?

 

Y al respecto ya comentabamos cosas hace unos años
https://foro.tiempo.com/climatologia/datos+de+los+ciclos+solares+pasado+presente+y+futuro-t78639.0.html;msg1638235#msg1638235

gracias, se ve que coincidió que estuve unos meses sin interné,
le echaré un vistazo más detenidamente (y a cer si encuentro algo más sobre la precesión solar y el baricentro)

Mejor aqui  _OO_

mes enero 2010

http://solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp/solar/sunspots/number/rz2010.txt



Desde 1929


Saludos