LONG -TERM FORECAST OF SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITY
The detection of cyclicity inside the seismic and volcanic activity and their correlation link with the solar activity and other cosmic processes is of great importance for understanding of interaction of different cosmic and geodynamical factors and creation of single conceptual system of cosmo-earthy interaction.
Thus, the research of the mechanisms of cyclic volcanism and seismicity gives an opportunity to solve a practical problem - the realization of long-term forecast of the activity of volcanoes and earthquakes. That is the reason of why it's so interesting and important for us the realization of such a long-term forecast on the basis of the results of a large-scale and laborious work devoted to the study of spacious mechanisms of modern manifestation of volcanism and seismicity.
Pic.2. shows forecast graphs for the period until 2018, for solar activity, as well as for seismic and volcanic activities of compression rims of the Earth.
As it seen from the picture, we haven't the curve of Wolf numbers in the capacity of the index of solar activity, but the graph of changes of solar constant, because exactly this characteristic has the energetic expression.
As it seen from the picture, we haven't the curve of Wolf numbers in the capacity of the index of solar activity, but the graph of changes of solar constant, because exactly this characteristic has the energetic expression.
It should be noted that the solar constant has a high correlation with Wolf numbers, that is logical.
Pic.2. Forecast graphs of solar activity, seismic and volcanic activity
of compression rims of the Earth.
E.N.Khalilov 2010
1- graph of real numbers of earthquakes of compression rims of the Earth with M≥5;
2-circumflexing graph of seismic activity of compression rims of the Earth with M≥5;
3-forecast part of the graph of seismic activity of compression rims of the Earth;
4-lines connecting the minimal indexes of solar and seismic activities
and showing the delay of seismic activity against solar;
5-graph of volcanic activity of compression rims of the Earth;
6-forecast part of the graph of volcanic activity of compression rims of the Earth;
7-drawing up of volcanic activity graph for zones of type C;
8-drawing up of seismic activity graph for zones of type C.
Even visual comparison of graphs gives an opportunity to catch a high likeness and some delay of cycles of seismic and volcanic activities of compression rims of the Earth against solar activity. The time of delay is fluctuating from 1,5 to 2 years. The reasoning of such a mechanism of delay was given above.
Starting from 2008, forecast parts of graphs were given, that were built on the basis of usage of previous, stable for a long period of time, mechanisms.
On all the graphs show another cycle of activity, equal on the average period to 11-12 years. As graph shows, the maximum of the cycle of high solar activity falls on 2013. Thus, the maximums of the cycles of volcanic and seismic activity of compression rims of the Earth fall on 2013-2015, taking into account previously observed time shift (Pic.7).The longest period of volcanic and seismicity activity (4 years), in comparison with solar activity, can be explained by sufficient inertness of geodynamical processes on one hand, and by influence of a whole range of other factors as well as endogenous and cosmic, excepting solar activity on the other hand.
In Pic.3. is shown the graph which characterize the movement of the geomagnetic pole. As it is seen in the graph, to the end of 90s the velocity of drift of the geomagnetic pole was increased five times in comparison with 1980. This fact may testify the considerable changes in the energetic processes of the core of Earth, which forms the geomagnetic field of our planet. Undoubtedly, this fact may testify the beginning of the next cycle of the sharp activation of the endogenous activity of the Earth.
According to V.E.Khain and E.N.Khalilov (2009), enhancement of processes in “nuclear reactor” in the center of the Earth favored the fivefold acceleration of drift of magnetic poles of the Earth, beginning from 1990-s. Activation of “nuclear reactor” has brought to acceleration of convective streams both in outer core and in the mantle. As it is known, the convective streams are the main driving force of movement of lithospheric plates. So, according to the opinions of authors, the chain of interconnected physical-chemical processes from the Earth to the lithosphere accounts for increasing of seismic and volcanic activity, beginning from 2010 with the maximum in 2013-2015
Pic.6. The schedule of forecasting of essential increase of seismic and volcanic activity.
E.N.Khalilov, 2010
Is - the Index of seismic activity;
Iv - the Index of volcanic activity;
1 - The maximal seismic activity;
2 - High seismic activity;
3 - The moderate seismic activity
New long-term forecast from GNFE about increase of seismic and volcanic activity from 2010
http://www.seismonet.org/page.html?id_node=130&id_file=97saludos