Vuelve nuestro pronosticador favorito, el Sr avila, con la misma canción, Zeta mantiene su fuerza, incluso se refuerza algo, la prediccion insiste en que ha de debilitarse.., pero en la discusión dice como el modelo GFDL lo convierte en huracan en un par de dias ... veremos..
Parte nº 11 => 50 mph y 1000 mb
000
WTNT35 KNHC 020235
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN JAN 01 2006
...ZETA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...FORECAST INSISTS ON WEAKENING...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1145
MILES...1845 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
...260 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...24.7 N... 38.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
pero lo mejor esta en la discusion
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WTNT45 KNHC 020235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006
THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST
OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH
ALIVE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND AMSU DATA
SUGGEST THAT ZETA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN IN THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ACCORDING
TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES ZETA BY 48 HOURS...THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL 200 MB TEMPERATURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CYCLONE.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL
INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND
DRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST
WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.ZETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS AROUND THE
WESTERN CIRCULATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY
WESTWARD BY THE TRADE WINDS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 24.7N 38.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.6N 39.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 41.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
16°4°
Almendricos
10°-1°
Madrid
17° 5°
Sevilla
