MeteoFrance se pronuncia respecto al 92S
AWIO20 FMEE 251214
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2012/02/25 AT 1200 UTC
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Transequatorial monsoon flow is established from the African coasts to 75E. Trade wind flow is
rather pronounced south of 14S and East of 70E.
Monsoon trough is pronounced along 13S/58E - 12S/65E - 11S/75E - 12S/88E.
Convective activity within the ITCZ is moderate to important within the monsoon trough
particularly within three distinct areas :
- between 50E and 60E, where convection has developed at the end of the last night, but last data
MW (TRMM of 0536Z) does not show any organisation or clear clockwise circulation. however a
low seems to develop near 12.6S/55.6E as pressions have clearly decreased on this area during the
next 24 hours ( -2hPa on Tromelin, -3.9hPa on Algalega), MSLP in this area is estimated at 1000
hPa (buoy NR 14041 at 10Z with a pression of 1001.2 hPa ).
- between 65E and 75E, where convection is strongly southeasterly sheared.
- East of 85E, where convection remains poorly organized.
Avalaible NWP models analyse the low north of Tromelin island, and deepen it progressively with a
quick westwards track towards north of Madagascar, on the northern edge of the subtropical belt
rebuilding southward. Monsoon feeding should remain favourable and trade-wind feeding should
improve. SST are favourable. Upper VWS should remain moderate, north of the upper tropospheric
ridge, and should slow the deepening of this system.
Secondly, NWP models analyse a broad clockwise circulation within the ITCZ, east of 85E, but
don't deepen it significantly. Indeed, this area should remain under strong upper VWS.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor
potential becomes fair to important for the low north Tromelin.
Poca chicha hasta que no entre en el Canal de Mozambique.