Buen pronóstico el que presenta Estofex para esta tarde-noche en la zona NE del país, aunque el mapa que habría que ver, es el previsto para mañana, cuando ese aire frío se descuelgue por esa zona, como un cuchillo caliente cortando un bloque de mantequilla. El contraste entre aguas a más de 28º C, brisas del Este y SE y ese aire frío, va a ser explosivo.
... Northern Spain towards Massif Central ...
An EML has spread towards northeast in the southwesterly flow and is well sampled by Nimmes and Barcelona soundings. Barcelona 00 UTC measurement has over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, but strongly capped and favorable low level veering. This veering is also nicely visible in Nimmes measurement, albeit CAPE was lower in this case. Generally speaking, moderate to strong instability should be present over the region, with the highest values towards the southeast (Ebro valley), but as usual, CIN will also be the highest here. Moderate to strong DLS with low level wind veering with height contributing to the enhanced SREH should be available for enhancement of storm organisation. Well organised multicells or even supercells are possible, posing threats of large hail and severe wind gusts. High LCLs will limit the excessive precipitation threat although over Massif Central, backbuilding in case of multicells might lead to higher precip accumulations, especially later into the forecast period.
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