Alerta de tormentas y fenómenos severos

ESTOFEX para mañana. .




 

http://www.estofex.org/

Se ha formado una potente línea de turbonada en las proximidades de Baleares, aunque no va a afectar al archipiélago. Menorca sí que parece que se va a comer un sistema mucho más modesto en forma de tren convectivo o semiestacionario.

No es para España sino para Alemania, Dinamarca y Holanda, pero el Estofex ha metido un nivel 3 al mar del Norte....

Quizá es el primer 3 que veo en ESTOFEX:

Por extraño que parezca rayos y truenos en Lleida esta mañana. Se dirige hacia el Pirineo. Va a pegar un nevadon. El Estofex en babia.
 Y curiosamente no salen en el radar. Los he estado contando con la cuenta de la vieja y pasaban 10 segundos máximo desde el centro de Lleida.  Eso son 3000 metros desde el centro de Lleida. Y tanto Aemet como Meteo.cat no marcan ninguno a menos de 25 o 40 km. Todos salen en la provincia de Tarragona. ¿Alguien sabría decir porqué?

Compañero, los hemos tenido en zonas maritimas de España, en concreto Mar Cantabrico (Enero de 2009) y Sur de Baleares (Noviembre de 2012). Tambien tengo en el estudio otro registrado en Italia,en plena Isla de Sicilia (octubre de 2012).

Lo que tiene este de especial es que toca tierra en el continente por Alemania, nosolo en una isla,  había visto ninguno hasta ahora.

Si te interesa en cuanto tenga un rato te los paso.

Un saludo desde Guillena.

No es para España sino para Alemania, Dinamarca y Holanda, pero el Estofex ha metido un nivel 3 al mar del Norte....

Quizá es el primer 3 que veo en ESTOFEX:

Excelente iniciativa. Yo estoy a menudo en zonas de muchísimo viento.

Saludos.

Buenas.
Por fin Estofex ha decidido ponerse algo "las pilas" y actualiza los datos, algo que no hacía desde Octubre del año pasado. Aún así, creo que la situación tiende a complicarse algo más de lo que pronostican, en la cuenca Suroccidental mediterránea y Norte de Africa.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

The west Mediterranean is affected by a cut-off low today. An embedded short-wave trough will move west and affects the Iberian Peninsula. Some offshore thunderstorms have developed during the night hours and will continue in the morning, before they weaken in the wake of the short-wave trough. Over Iberia, daytime heating and the approach of the short-wave trough will result in steep lapse rates. Although low-level moisture is weak, current thinking is that a few high-based storms can form in the noon and afternoon. With weak vertical wind shear, organized storms are not expected. Given the dry boundary-layer, strong wind gusts due to dry microbursts are not ruled out. The threat is too marginal for a level 1, however. Storms will decay in the evening hours.

Esta tarde tenemos condiciones favorables para el desarrollo de tormentas puntualmente  fuertes y organizadas, especialmente en meseta Norte, S. Ibérico Norte, y sur de la Cantábrica. Tendremos CAPEs localmente por encima de 1000 j/kg acompañados de cizlladura de hasta 15m/s (30kt), preferentemente de giro horario.
La humedad acompañará bastante además...

Buena caza. 

Otro buen dia kazatormentas
Buenas condiciones en amplias zonas de la peninsula, interior...
Ojo a la posibilidad de alguna supercelula. Veo muy buenas condiciones en la zona de Teruel
Mañana como veis el asunto?¿ Tenia pensado quizas dar una vuelta!

Extofex sábado 12 abril.

ESTOFEX Domingo 20 de Abril.

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 20 Apr 2014 06:00 to Mon 21 Apr 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 20 Apr 2014 01:24
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for southwestern Iberian Peninsula mainly for marginal large hail/tornado threat.

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure areas at the surface is found over Spain and develops over the English Channel and France. A trough extends eastward over the Alps to Ukraine. Blocking high pressure is present over Scandinavia and Russia. A strong easterly flow develops north of the French low and the trough.
There are three important shortwave troughs around the main mid level low. The most dynamics are associated with the trough over the southern UK where an occluded front will linger for a while. The other two affect southern Iberian Peninsula and central Europe, Poland in particular.

DISCUSSION

...southwestern Iberian Peninsula...

Relatively strong moisture transport from the Atlantic to the peninsula and low level temperature advection with steep lapse rates above allows the presence of a few hundred J/kg CAPE over a large area. The baroclinic setup generates moderate vertical wind shear, especially to the east, with 15-25 m/s deep layer shear and 100-200 m²/s² 0-3 km SREH. This can lead to organized multicell and supercell storms which pose a slight threat of large hail (the environment is not very energetic and also the cloud base (LCL) is very low). In the very south of Spain the 0-1 km shear vector magnitude will reach over 10 m/s, which in combination with aforementioned supercell chances and low LCL will increase the threat of an isolated tornado.

Hoy un muy buen dia de caza, en el NE



A level 2 was issued for north-eastern Spain and southern France mainly for large hail.

North-eastern Spain, southern France

An intense digging trough will cross the Iberian Peninsula until Friday, 6 UTC. Ahead of the trough, a strong south-westerly jet will spread east and affects eastern Spain and France in the afternoon and evening hours. Diurnal heating will lead to steep lapse rates especially at low levels, and adequate low-level moisture is expected to overlap with these lapse rates, resulting in CAPE around 400 J/kg.

Initiation may be quite early across northern Spain due to the approaching trough and spreads east in the noon and afternoon hours. DCVA and WAA will assist in numerous storms that may merge into larger clusters. Given favourable vertical wind shear and 150 m²/s² 0-3 km SRH, rapid storm organization is expected, and supercells or multicells capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast. Tornadoes are not excluded due to slightly increasing low-level vertical wind shear in the evening hours. Additionally, excessive rain is not ruled out, with the greatest chance in the evening hours when storms start to cluster. Low-level stabilization and advection of drier air from the west will lead to a rapid decay of the activity during the night.