FQZA31 FAPR 011400
SECURITE:
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 01st MARCH
2003 AT 14:00 UTC, VALID FROM 012200 to 021000 UTC WIND IN KNOTS,
SWELL IN METRES. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds.
Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5
Wave heights are also average heights which may be accompanied
by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher.
WARNING(S):
==========
1. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION
01/03/2003 AT 1200 UTC
WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
WARNING NUMBER : 017/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
BEGINNING OF VALID : SATURDAY 01/03/2003 AT 1200 UTC
PHENOMENON : INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JAPHET ) 927 HPA
POSITION : 23.6S/37.6E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT : ALMOST STATIONNARY
MENACED AREAS : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN 30NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND VERY HIGH
SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS
35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECASTED POSITION 02/03/2003 AT 0000 UTC: 23.2 SOUTH/37.2 EAST
WEAKENING.
FORECASTED POSITION 02/03/2003 AT 1200 UTC: 22.8 SOUTH/36.8 EAST
WEAKENING.
OTHER INFORMATION :
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JAPHET IS STILL STATIONNARY AND IT IS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLES CONDITIONS, WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 011200 UTC.
High 1022 hPa 30s03e High 1020 hPa 36s33e High 1022 hPa 34s67e
Low 996 hPa 45s23w Low 976 hPa 54s17e Low 968 hPa 54s48e
Low 988 hPa 47s65e
TROPICAL CYCLONE ( Japhet ) : 927hPa, 23.6s 37.6e
1. Cold Front : 35s07w 40s05e 47s15e 50s20e
2. Cold Front : 35s40e 40s57e 45s67e
AREA FORECAST
--------------
ASCENSION:
WIND : SE 10 to 15.
VIS : Good but poor in showers in the north.
ANGOLA :
WIND : SE 10 but S to SW 10 in the east.
VIS : Poor in showers in the north.
SWELL : SSW 1 to 2m.
ST HELENA:
WIND : SE to NE 10 but NW to SW 10 to 15 in the south.
VIS : Good.
TRADES :
WIND : Variable 10 in the south-west, otherwise SE 10 to 15.
VIS : Good.
TRISTAN :
WIND : SW to NW 15 to 20 but variable 10 in the south-east
at first.
VIS : Poor in showers in the south-west.
SEA STATE: 3 in the south-east, SW swell.
CAPE WEST
WIND : SE 10 in the north-east, otherwise NW to SW 15
reaching 25 in the south-west and south later.
VIS : Good but poor in showers south-west and south later.
SEA STATE: 3m in the south-west, SW swell.
CAPE EAST:
WIND : Variable 05 but SW to SE 10 to 15 in the east and
NW 10 in the west.
VIS : Poor in showers in the south-east at first.
DURBAN EAST:
WIND : NE to SE 15 to 20 but 20 to 30 in the north-west.
VIS : Poor in showers in the north-west.
SEA STATE: 4 to 5m in the extreme north-west with a long period
of 10 to 12s.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : Cyclonic 20 to 30 in the south-west but 35 to 65 within
60 NM of centre of the tropical cyclone JAPHER centred at
23.6s 37.6e. Otherwise SW to NW 15 to 25 but SE to NE
15 to 25 in the south ( see warning ).
VIS : Poor in heavy rain near the tropical cyclone.
SEA STATE: 5 to 6m in the south with a long period of 10 to 11s.
MADAGASCAR EAST:
WIND : NE to SE 10 to 15 reaching 20 in the south.
VIS : Poor in showers.
MARION FORTIES EAST ( east of 35e):
WIND : SW to NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the south.
VIS : Poor in showers.
SEA STATE: 4 to 5m in the south. SW swell.
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA
ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
DATE : 03/03/01 UTC TIME : 0500
WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE
PART 1:
STORM WARNING : NIL, BUT GALE FORCE 8 OVER CRO AND KER.
PART 2:
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 03/03/01 AT 0000 UTC :
HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 34S/60E, MOVING EASTWARD 05/10KT.
COLD FRONT AXIS : 27S/70E, 35S/80E, 40S/88E, MOVING
EASTSOUTHEASTWARD 20/30KT.
COLD FRONT AXIS : 37S/40E, 43S/57E, 50S/52E, 53S/40E, WITH
ASSOCIATED LOW 976 HPA NEAR 51S/42E MOVING EASTWARD 30/35KT.
COLD FRONT AXIS : 40S/70E, 45S/76E, 47S/70E, WITH A LOW 1004 HPA
NEAR 45S/72E, MOVING EASTWARD 25/30KT.
PART 3:
FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 03/03/01 AT 0600 UTC TO 03/03/02 AT
0600 UTC :
WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) : FRONTAL RAINS OVER FAR SOUTHERN.
WIND : NORTHWESTERLY 4/6, INCREASING 6/7 OVER SOUTHERN.
SEA : MODERATE, BECOMING ROUGH OVER SOUTHERN. MODERATE WEST SWELL
OVER SOUTHRN .
VIS : POOR IN RAIN.
AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) : SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN.
WIND : ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 WITH NORTHWESTERLY 4/6 OVER SOUTHERN
AREA.
SEA : MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH.
VIS : MODERATE IN SHOWERS.
CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) : SHOWERS AND FRONTAL RAIN.
WIND : WESTERLY 6 TO 8 FROM NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.MODERATE TO HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL;
VIS : POOR IN RAINS.
KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) : SHOWERS AND FRONTAL RAINS.
WIND : WESTERLY 6/7 , LOCALLY 8.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL.
VIS : POOR IN RAINS.
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