Quien le ha visto y quien lo ve ahora. BRUCE convertido en un despojo de lo que fue, de momento con 45 kts y extratropicalizándose rápidamente, con cizalladura de cerca de 30 kt y el LLCC destrozado..
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BRUCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1333 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED AND
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A 232311Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS SHALLOWED AND STARTED TO THIN ALONG THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS COMMENCED
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TAU 12 DUE TO COLD SSTS AND INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
COLD-CORE LOW. TC BRUCE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24.