Depresión Tropical 24W (TINO-oeste de Filipinas)

asi no mezclamos mirinae y el seguimiento general...

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 17N 128E NW 15 KT.

WTPN21 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 17.8S 126,3E, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVEC-
TION BUILDING OVER AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC HAS BEEN
FUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 011215Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WERE BEING
ENHANCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS) AND
WERE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE DECREASING AS THE LLCC TRACKS TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 28 CELSIUS WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY HELP
TO SPIN THE SYSTEM UP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE LLCC
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. THE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY
COLD SURGE OCCURRING OVER THE ECS WILL MADE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
QUESTIONABLE IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER IN THE SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT
IS FAVORABLE. BASED ON INCREASING LLCC ORGANIZATION, FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022200Z.//
NNNN





personalmente no creo que llegue a Tormenta Tropical antes de tocar tierra, mas tarde todo es posible...
un saludo

Tiene lanzada la alerta de formación, pero ni JTWC ni marina, ni ATCF ni PAGASA la mencionan como Depresión, al menos por el momento

 

PAGASA actualiza datos, nombrando al sistema como Depresión Tropical TINO. JTWC sigue con la alerta de formación tropical. JMA no hace mención de la perturbación





 

se mueve al SO...






WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 17.0N 123.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

de momento no esperan que se fortalezca...menos mal...

vaya temporada llevan desde Parma en Filipinas....

Por lo menos el NRL lo renombra como DT 24W... ó no?

Que lío, pisha... perdón por el off topic...

- Con 30kt, 1000mb...

Donde ta el problema? 

PAGASA va a su bola, siempre lo hizo. Es decir, en cuanto algo entra en su PAR, nombra a los sistemas según su propio criterio. En este caso, el JTWC considera que el sistema merece ser designado como Depresión, de ahí que le nombre como TD 24W

 

El señor Mozilla me ha fastidiado el post...

- En fin, actualiza el JWTC... 24W... 30kt... LLCC expuesto, sistema menos organizado... pero con vientos en niveles de alerta...