Huracán FRANK Categoría 1 (09E // G. de TEHUANTEPEC - Costa Oeste México)

FRANK se fortalece ...


...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD...CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 95.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Así es, sube a 45 kts.



Eso sí, por otro lado Dvorak otorga 51 kts.

Mucho cuidado no vayamos a tener sorpresas en las próximas 18/24 horas....

Modelos dinámicos :

GFDL 12Z : 92 KT en 114 horas

HWRF 12Z : 63 KT en 108 horas

FRANK se vuelve a fortalecer .

EP, 09, 2010082218,   , BEST,   0, 138N,  957W,  50, 1001, TS,

Esto tiene 50-55 knots fijo....



 

Se me coló Kike (otra vez)

Esto tiene 50-55 knots fijo....



¡Jodó que sí los tiene......... ! Carburador puesto a tope y veremos con lo que nos encontramos mañana porque "FRANKi" tiene ganas de dar el cante.
Saludos.

Pues otorgan finalmente 50 kts.

EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
...A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER
OF FRANK.

DESPITE SHOWING THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS BY 12 HOURS...THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS HAVE TRENDED SHARPLY UPWARD IN THE
FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING AND AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2100Z 13.9N  96.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  97.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.3N  98.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.8N 100.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.4N 101.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 104.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W    70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Igual, Aviso nº 7,  con esos 50 nudos:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0900Z 14.3N  97.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.5N  98.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 101.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.4N 102.8W    70 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W    70 KT

Loop.



A ver como evoluciona Frank, por que circula muy paralelo a la línea de costa....a ver si no influye mucho en su desarrollo y podemos tener el 3º huracán de la temporada en el EPAC tras casi 2 meses de sequía...

 

Pierde fuelle...

EP, 09, 2010082318,   , BEST,   0, 148N,  989W,  45, 1000, TS


- Ya lo decía el NHC en su último aviso (nº 8 ):

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 25 KT.


- LLCC parcialmente a la vista:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/232042.shtml


THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO
ERODE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
AT 1800 UTC...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

...

Si si....pero el pronostico no lo modifican...

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...THAT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE...ANY SUSTAINED
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.9N 99.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.2N 100.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 101.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 105.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART