Huracán FRANK Categoría 1 (09E // G. de TEHUANTEPEC - Costa Oeste México)

Mantiene los 45 nudos:

- Aviso nº 11: destaco el efecto de la cizalladura impidiendo su organización.

BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FRANK FROM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 15.3N 100.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 102.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 103.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 105.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 107.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 110.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    45 KT

Frank tiene un potencial increíble, pero es que con estos niveles de cizalladura de hasta 20-25 kts no se puede....



 

Amanece en el EPAC, y se denota que Frank posee un aspecto muy bueno.



Puede que suban a 50-55 kts actualmente....

- ATCF: 55 nudos. 


EP, 09, 2010082412,   , BEST,   0, 153N, 1011W,  55,  994, TS

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 241443
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FRANK HAS MADE A RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. A
24/0924Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND
THAT A 75 PERCENT EYEWALL HAD FORMED. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVECTION
IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 OR 55 KT WAS ANALYZED BY BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOTION OF 285/06. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP FRANK MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF U.S. WEST COAST AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND DECREASE THE STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES
FRANK AND ITS WIND FIELD MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANK...THE GFDL SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES NEAR 20 KT CURRENTLY ACROSS FRANK...THE
CYCLONE HAS STILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SIMILAR SHEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FRANK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES AND
WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF
FRANK IS CLOSER TO 15 KT. BY 36 HOURS...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER FRANK BY 48 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANK
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS FRANK WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO WERE DISCONTINUED
EARLIER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALTHOUGH THESE
RAINS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK...THEY STILL POSE A
SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/1500Z 15.4N 101.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.8N 102.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 104.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.2N 106.0W    65 KT
48HR VT     26/1200Z 17.9N 107.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    55 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Sagra, en vez de aumentar y poner en negrita al forecaster, mejor será que ''resumas'' la discusion....
Mas que nada para agilizar un poco el seguimiento....

FRANK HAS MADE A RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. A
24/0924Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND
THAT A 75 PERCENT EYEWALL HAD FORMED

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES AND
WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF
FRANK IS CLOSER TO 15 KT. BY 36 HOURS...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER FRANK BY 48 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANK
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS





 

Tiene muy buena pinta...



Creo que posee 60 kts, al menos eso pone en el enlace de la imagen, de todas formas creo que el NHC le va a catalogar como Huracán.

No me juego nada, pero.....

Pues no, 60 kts

FRANK IS ALSO MOVING
INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR BASED ON UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRANK TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT FORMATION
OF A HURRICANE..

BY DAY
4...FRANK SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
GRADUAL WEAKENING TO ENSUE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W    70 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.1N 108.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N 111.2W    75 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 20.2N 112.6W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    55 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Todo apunta a que alcanzará la Cat.1

 

No está excesivamente bien organizado (el NHC rebaja su intensidad a 55kt), pero los topes sun una burrada de frios. No me gustaría estar debajo..., o si 

Vuelve a 60 kts en el último parte

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 16.2N 103.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.6N 105.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.1N 106.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.7N 108.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.3N 110.3W    60 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 21.5N 113.5W    35 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH



Es un ''quiero y no puedo'' continuo...

Está a puntito de caramelo....


No me fío del Dvorak, que marca 3.4 y 53 kts, poco le falta para alcanzar los 65 kts...

Yo creo que ya es Huracan. Solo hace falta mirar el satelite

Lo que le hace falta es la mejor formacion del LLCC