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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090834
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009
THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN T3.5 OR 55 KT...WHICH IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LINDA
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT QUITE
EXPANSIVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER.
DESPITE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE PREDICTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS
BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH BRING THE
CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
THEREAFTER...LINDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AS IT
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A MORE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW LINDA TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS
TURNING LINDA WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5 KEEPS LINDA ON A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND BAMS
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
IT SEEMS THAT NINES MUST BE WILD THIS MORNING...AS THIS HAPPENS TO
BE THE 9TH ADVISORY ON LINDA AT 0900 UTC ON 9/9/09.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.8N 128.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.5N 128.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.2N 132.1W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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