Huracán MICHAEL Categoría 3 (13-L. Cabo Verde - Atlántico Medio)

Un tanto inusual ver un mayor por dicha zona atlántica.



Tal vez algún día 



 

Michael continúa  bastante bien estructurado, aunqeu pequeñín:

Todos los modelos lo ebilitan a partir de ya mismo y especialmente dentro de un par de días.

Michael en las ultimas 24 horas ha perdido fuerza aunque no mucha, no obstante  en  las 6 ultimas horas ha manteniene su fuerza.


Ahora mismo es huracan Categoria 2 con 85 Kt.




000
WTNT43 KNHC 080832
TCDAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. A RAGGED EYE HAS
BEEN OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS
LAST NIGHT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ONLY
A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS
THE COMPACT HURRICANE REMAINS OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND IN A LOW
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MICHAEL IN 2
TO 3 DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MICHAEL MERGING WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST
OF LESLIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR MICHAEL TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY DAY 4.

THE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH RECENTLY...BUT A LONGER TERM
MOTION IS 330/4. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MICHAEL REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING SURROUNDED BY A
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST...A RIDGE TO IS SOUTHEAST...AND A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS...MICHAEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 AND 4 TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 32.2N  41.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 32.6N  42.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 33.1N  42.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 33.5N  43.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 33.9N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 36.7N  47.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 45.0N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Vuelve a ganar un poco de intensidad según el último parte: 971hpa 90kt.

Está resultando ser un huracán bastante intenso, cosa poco esperada teniendo en cuenta la zona en la que está, a parte de que su diámetro es bastante pequeño...

Michael esta tarde perdiendo fuerza, no obstante ha resistido mucho mas de lo que esperaban los modelos.

Ahora mismo es huracan categoria 1 con 80 kt.


000
WTNT43 KNHC 091449
TCDAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS
MORNING...THERE SEEM TO BE SOME CHANGES OCCURRING WITHIN THE INNER
CORE OF MICHAEL.  THE EYE HAS INCREASED IN DIAMETER FROM 10 TO 25
N MI AT THE SAME TIME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...POSSIBLY
INDICATIVE OF A MIXING EVENT WITHIN THE EYE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE AT 4.5 AT 1200 UTC...AND AN AVERAGE OF
RECENT ADT VALUES IS 5.2.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA
AND IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER
CORE.

RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW 275/04. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE EAST OF
MICHAEL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
NO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE CYCLONE...RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTERLY TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS... MICHAEL SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE FAST-PACED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48
HOURS AND SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH THE WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF MICHAEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARM ENOUGH...THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR IS
ABOUT TO CHANGE.  WITHIN 24 HOURS...STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR
OVER MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE CYCLONE PASSES FROM
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS TO A POSITION UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE.  ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
A NARROW LAYER IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...IT  COULD BE OF A
MAGNITUDE THAT WOULD INDUCE A FASTER WEAKENING THAN FORECAST.  A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME BEFORE MICHAEL
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET.  A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND RAPIDLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD MEAN
STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES FRONTAL AROUND 72
HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND
THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 33.7N  43.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 33.8N  43.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 34.0N  45.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 35.1N  47.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 38.1N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 46.5N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Por cierto, hasta el momento los sistemas mas fuertes de la temporada actual se han dado en la zona del Atlantico Medio ( Gordon, Kirk, Michael) 2 de ellos huracan categoria 2( Gordon, Kirk) y Michael "el primer gran huracan hasta el momento".

Pierde intensidad. Down to 75 Kt con presión 983mb, dirigiendose al oeste a 6 mph.

 

Comparación de los canales NPP VIIRS del canal visible y del canal IR, donde se pueden observar de una manera más nítida la estructura de su Eyewall en su mejor momento.



Impresionante Michael