THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW LESS
DISTINCT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE
AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 0453 UTC TRMM
OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
WEST AFRICA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW
DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. BEYOND TWO DAYS...
HOWEVER...THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER WEST...SHOWING A FAIRLY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE
AND THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...LIES BETWEEN
THE EXTREMES AND ENDS UP NEAR THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS.
Se incrementa el área de convección de Philippe. Sigue en 997hPa y viento a 60mph. Temp de los topes nubosos de hasta -90ºC (según el parte)
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