Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Lunes 01 Septiembre 2014 09:40:35 am
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2795/two_pac_2d1_com6.png)
1. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves slowly
northward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8149/91.track.current_tcz7.png)
Publicado por: Sudoku en Martes 02 Septiembre 2014 10:44:31 am
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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system southwest of Mexico.
1. Updated: Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, is producing a small area of gale-force winds. Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet acquired
sufficient organization or persistence for the low to be considered
a tropical cyclone, only a slight increase in organization would
lead to the development of a tropical storm, and advisories could be
initiated later today. This system is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward near the southwestern coast of
Mexico and the extreme southern Baja California peninsula during the
next few days, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of the disturbance. Locally heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Berg
Publicado por: Sudoku en Martes 02 Septiembre 2014 18:17:39 pm
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...NORBERT FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
FORECASTER BLAKE
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Miércoles 03 Septiembre 2014 18:08:25 pm
55kts-995mb
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/994/rgb0_lalo_jup9.gif)
El aspecto es de un huracán. Posibilidad de un eventual RI.
In fact, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI
showing about a 1-in-3 chance of Norbert becoming 30 kt stronger in
the next 24 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 20.1N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.9N 110.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 111.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.0N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Publicado por: Sudoku en Miércoles 03 Septiembre 2014 18:47:29 pm
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 980.6mb/ 69.8kt
Publicado por: Sudoku en Miércoles 03 Septiembre 2014 23:00:39 pm
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 978.8mb/ 72.2kt
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Jueves 04 Septiembre 2014 09:27:29 am
70kts-982mb
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6727/rb_lalo_animated_sok0.gif)
Pico de 85 nudos camino de Baja California
Publicado por: Sudoku en Jueves 04 Septiembre 2014 22:44:06 pm
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Sábado 06 Septiembre 2014 07:31:54 am
95kts-961mb
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5180/20140906.0302.f18.x.composite.14ENORBERT.95kts_961mb_240N_1126W.99pc_paa5.jpg)
En el próximo parte rondará la Categoría 4 casi seguro con unos 105-110kts. :ejemejem:
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 06 Septiembre 2014 10:22:13 am
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Lunes 08 Septiembre 2014 08:59:03 am
Norbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the
past several hours. Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in
the circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a
post-tropical cyclone soon.
Mejores momentos de Norbert como Major.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5927/goes_norbert_0745a_pdt_2_ehn2.jpg)
