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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Oeste => Mensaje iniciado por: Sudoku en Sábado 18 Enero 2014 13:50:18 pm
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Cuando todo parecía que no iba a desarrollarse, lo ha hecho antes de interaccionar con tierra, alcanzando los 30 kts. y con el centro parcialmente expuesto, con la mayor parte de la convección hacia el Oeste. Aunque el JTWC no le da mucho chance, veremos si sube un poco más antes de estamparse contra la costa.
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El JTWC le da categoría de Tormenta tropical y ya tiene nombre 01W-LINGLING.35kts-996mb-91N-1277E
Pronóstico del organismo:
WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MOVED
SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. AN 180122Z
SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35-40 KNOT
WIND BARBS ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAKER 20-25 KNOT WIND
BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETRY PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 01W
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 01W IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN HIGHLY ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH A
NUMBER OF MODELS INDICATING A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH STEER THE SYSTEM
OVER MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.//
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El JTWC deja de seguir al sistema. Sus "remanentes" atraviesan el archipiélago en dirección hacia el Oeste, disipándose por el camino. Goodbye LINGLING.