Foro de Tiempo.com
Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: HurricaneMex' en Lunes 06 Junio 2011 01:57:39 am
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Tiene apoyo de todos los modelos para desarrollarse y sus probabilidades han aumentado al 90%
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Pues en la útlima imágen de satélite parece haber perdido mucha convección profunda ??? :o :-[
URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/69/avnl.jpg/](http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/6972/avnl.jpg)[/URL]
www.imageshack.us
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Cuestión de organización en niveles bajos
El NHC le da bola porque en superficie tiene claro reflejo, aunque flojee por arriba. No obstante, tal y como está ahora, el nivel de desarrollo debería bajar algo hasta que recupere convección
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Por el momento falta convectividad.
Loop
(http://i54.tinypic.com/6szxog.gif)
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Que buena circulación que tiene .... :-*
(http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/1114/26140505.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/534/26140505.jpg/)
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Tremenda pinta tiene.... Sube al 100%
Loop Visible
(http://i55.tinypic.com/zjhxy0.gif)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
:sonrisa:
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Parece que Adrian ya esta por aqui, a falta de confirmacion oficial, primer sistema tropical de la cuenca. Gran trabajo el que realizais en el seguimiento, es un verdadero placer poder leeros. :aplause:
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Arranca la temporada en el EPAC
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Parte del NHC, en modo resumen:
Las condiciones son bastante favorables para desarrollo, combinando cizalladura inferior a 10kt y SST de 30ºC que deben hacer que crezca durante los 3-4 próximos dias. Hay unanimidad en modelos, pasando a Tormenta Tropical en 24 horas, y a huracán en 3 dias
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Vaya Golazo le va a pegar el Pacífico E al Atlántico N... :-*
Loop
(http://i55.tinypic.com/szcsy9.gif)
Poco a poco como las hormiguitas...
;)
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Ganando Fueza léntamente , ahora con 30 kt ::)
EP, 01, 2011060718, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1001W, 30, 1005, TD,
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Ya tenemos a la primera tormenta tropical de la temporada en el EPAC " ADRIAN " ;D
EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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El primer sistema de la temporada, que espero que sea larga y fructífera, tanto en el EPAC como en la zona Atlántica. ::)
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Crece, y lo hace con cierta celeridad
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 100.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH 40KT ...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104
UTC SSMI/S IMAGES
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS
SHIPS muestra un 59% de posibilidades de crecer 30kt en las próximas 24 horas. Lo más en contra, el aire seco al NW de la tormenta, aunque este no debería ser un excesivo problema, si no hay cizalladura que lo "batee" al ciclón
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ADRIAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
Loop de Adrián
(http://i53.tinypic.com/b3vm0l.gif)
Veremos hasta donde es capaz de llegar Adrián ...... Se acabara consumiendo el mismo por la falta de combustible.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
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Muy buen aspecto el que presenta Adrián. ;D
Track del sistema.
(http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/8965/084113w5nlsm.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/219/084113w5nlsm.gif/)
A ver si consigue la Cat.2, su núcleo esta bastante bien estructurado, a ver hasta donde aguanta.
Un saludo.
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Tremendo ultimo visible... :-*
01EADRIAN.55kts-995mb-126N-1008W.
(http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/8233/82405711.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/703/82405711.jpg/)
:sonrisa:
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Adrián a punto de alcanzar la categoría de Huracán.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
(http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/7558/fffox.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/41/fffox.jpg/)
De momento no han modificado nada sobre su trayectoria N. Las bandas convectivas en torno al LLCC en las ultimas 6 horas se han enfriado de manera rápida sobre todo en su parte W.
Por lo que solo tiene que crecer....
Loop Visible
(http://i54.tinypic.com/2582cg0.gif)
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Sale el parte del NHC.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS VERY LIKELY AS ADRIAN STILL LIES
OVER ABOUT 30C WATERS AND IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND SHOWS
ADRIAN INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...ADRIAN WILL BE MOVING
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
Rozando la categoría 3.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 12.9N 100.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.5N 101.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 14.2N 102.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.9N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 15.5N 104.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.5N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 18.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/3457/rgblo.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/228/rgblo.jpg/)
Go go gooo!! :D
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No me extrañaría que en el boletín Nº6 lo catalogaran de Huracán.
Loop
(http://i53.tinypic.com/4vkabl.gif)
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El outflow es excelente, pero está metiendo aire seco en la circulación. De momento, continua próximo a fuerza de huracán, pero sin serlo
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VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT
ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
IS NOT YET COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE BANDING
El parte completo del NHC confirma que ADRIÁN tendrá que esperar para ser el primer huracán del año en el EPAC. Su eyewall no está al completo
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Cualquiera lo diría....
(http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/7345/2011ep011kmsrvis2011060.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/804/2011ep011kmsrvis2011060.jpg/)
Loop
(http://i56.tinypic.com/33de9l0.gif)
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Adrián con serias evidencias de fortalecimiento...
:-* :-*
(http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/1183/13688024.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/641/13688024.jpg/)
Buenas noches :sonrisa:
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Ya tenemos al primer huracán del Pacífico NE ;D
HurricaneMex, ya puedes cambiar el título del topic, please. ;)
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 082349
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
500 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011
...ADRIAN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 102.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
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Ya tenemos al primer huracán del Pacífico NE ;D
HurricaneMex, ya puedes cambiar el título del topic, please. ;)
Ya ;D
& sigue ganando fuerza
EP, 01, 2011060900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1020W, 70, 987, HU,
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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MICROWAVE PASS AT 0020 UTC INDICATES A
CLOSED RING AND INCREASED ORGANIZATION TO THE EYEWALL[/i]
A mi no me lo parece tanto, no me parece que esté tan bien organizado... Es más, creo que tiene aire seco cerca del núcleo :P
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING ITS ENTIRE LIFE
CYCLE...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF REASON TO THINK THIS WILL STOP
ANYTIME SOON. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION...AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD STAY
ABOVE 29C FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
ANOTHER 24H PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
El NHC dice que no hay razón para que deje de crecer (pico de 105kt). El patrón en capas altas es favorable para desarrollo, con 29ºC de SST durante las próximas 24 horas mas o menos. Le dan otras 24 horas para una RI
Pos yo creo que esa bolsa de aire seco que ha metido dentro del motor, le va a hacer la puñeta, y que no habrá RI. Es más, tampoco creo que lleue a major ::)
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Los topes cada vez son más fríos en torno a su LLCC. El NHC lo ve para mañana como un Major.
Veremos que pasa con el aire seco que comenta Torre que hay circulando por su centro. Para mi cada vez le esta afectando menos.
Loop MIMIC
(http://i52.tinypic.com/2en2iky.gif)
Saludos
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Adrián muestra su EYE.... :-* En las próximas 12 H solo tiene que crecer.
(http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/5112/73653061.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/684/73653061.jpg/)
Track de Adrián
01E ADRIAN 110609 0000 13.6N 102.0W EPAC 70 987
01E ADRIAN 110609 0000 13.6N 102.0W EPAC 70 987
01E ADRIAN 110608 1800 13.2N 101.3W EPAC 60 994
01E ADRIAN 110608 1800 13.2N 101.3W EPAC 60 994
01E ADRIAN 110608 1200 12.6N 100.8W EPAC 55 995
01E ADRIAN 110608 1200 12.6N 100.8W EPAC 55 995
01E ADRIAN 110608 0600 11.9N 100.7W EPAC 45 1000
A la espera de la actualización pero me da que Adrián ya posee como mínimo 80 KT.
;)
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Pero que es estooooo !!!! :o :o :o
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt
Explosión masiva de Adrián... a falta de datos oficiales.
(http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/41/vislq.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/840/vislq.jpg/)
Impresionante su intensificación en las ultimas horas.
Nuevo Loop MIMIC
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-2.gif)
8)
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El parte del NHC habla de 80kt, y el ATCF, de 90kt
El pico se situa en 100kt. Y el propio NHC habla del aire seco:
SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE HURRICANE...
Los topes no son todo lo frios que suelen darse con un RI
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Amanece sobre el imponente Adrián....
Wow Wow Wow sin duda un sistema muy sorprendente.
Visible
(http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/8546/dddz.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/810/dddz.jpg/)
:o
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01E.ADRIAN.90kts.970mb
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Adrián Cat. 3
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
Preciosidad el Andrián este ... :-*
(http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/8729/goes14302011160v1h6fm.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/233/goes14302011160v1h6fm.jpg/)
ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
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Adrián Cat. 3
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
Sorprendente lo rápido que crece Adrián :o
Yo sigo atento a vuestro seguimiento, que es genial :popcorn:
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Increible. Parece que ha conseguido redirigir esa incursión de aire seco hacia el centro y beneficiarse de ella, expulsándolo con el flujo de salida. Avila, en su discursión dice que ha conseguido formar un gran ojo, simétrico y aumentar fuertemente la convección en todos los sectores en muy poco tiempo. De ahí la Cat. 3 asignada. Ahora tiene poco más de 24 horas para seguir creciendo, antes de que entre en zona de aguas más frías y comiene el posterior debilitamiento.
Lo dicho. Increible "ADRIAN" :o
EDITO: Si antes lo digo.......... :-X Parece que el aire seco, vuelve a dar por "saco" >:(
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Su EYE se vuelve a tapar. Como mencionas parece ser que el aire seco le esta haciendo la puñeta.
Loop
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-3.gif)
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Adrián. GOES-13, 13:45Z. ;)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/754_20110609Adrian.jpg
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El JTWC le da en las próximas horas unos vientos de 105 KT con lo que aguantaría la cat 3 durante unas 24 horas, aunque su desplazamiento lo lleva hacia zonas menos favorables y por tanto se irá debilitando....
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La verdad que pensé que no alcanzaría la categoría de major. No obstante, la fluctuación del eyewall por el aire seco es evidente
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Por cierto, maravillosa imagen del GOES ;)
Sacado de Jeff Masters:
NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes
El primero, sin cumplir el primer mes de temporada ;D
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¿Hay posibilidad de que llegue a ser .... Anular ?. A muchos os sonara como una locura.
Sin duda Adrián estéticamente perfecto para mi en el Visible.
(http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/9053/goes20452011160yemchz.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15/goes20452011160yemchz.jpg/)
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-5.gif)
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Ultimo Visible
Sublime !!!
(http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/3136/qqqi.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/163/qqqi.jpg/)
Buenas noches :sonrisa:
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Ya es categoría 4. El NHC ha lanzado un aviso especial
000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092235
TCUEP1
HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011
...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE....SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
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Que barbaridad con Adrián :o
(http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/6129/dddddpfv.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/59/dddddpfv.jpg/)
(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/7811/88169530.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/228/88169530.jpg/)
Parece que empieza a fluctuar por su flanco SW. De todas maneras este sistema a estrenado el EPAC a lo grande.
Edito:
(http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/2505/2011ep014kmirimg2011060.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/855/2011ep014kmirimg2011060.gif/)
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ADRIÁN Con 120 kt
EP, 01, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1054W, 120, 946, HU,,
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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No tengo palabras :-X
ADRIAN HAS INTENSIFIED 85 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IS LIKELY
NEAR PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SUCH LONG DURATION RAPID INTENSIFICATION
EVENTS ARE QUITE RARE. HAVING SAID THAT...MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ADRIAN HAS STABILIZED AS AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE WITH A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE
Anular, con un RI bastante extraño, y además, sin signos de ERC..., de momento:
WITH NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN...
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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¿Hay posibilidad de que llegue a ser .... Anular ?. A muchos os sonara como una locura.
Joder con que sorpresa me he levantado.... ;D. Ayer pensé .... Tiene forma de 6 solo le hace falta perder el rabo para ser un Donut.
Y mira por donde a sucedido. Raro es ver un Ciclón Anular que no esta en la categoría reina.
01EADRIAN.120kts-946mb-148N-1061W
Loop
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-6.gif)
;)
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Pongo una captura de los topes del GOES. Es de hace media hora.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
En el link podeis ver la animacion, lo que pasa que es bastante grande para subirla.
https://www.nemoc.navy.mil/site/satellite/display_thumbs_geo.php?AOIs/focus_regions/EPac/Trop/goesw&time=20110610.0951&mode=latest
PD: Como mola ver mi nombre en un huracan ;D ;D
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Captura NOAA GOES 13
(http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/2474/24684874.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/52/24684874.jpg/)
Sus topes parecen calentarse. Pero aun así... Tremendo Adrián.
(http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/2454/goes11452011161aw8k8q.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/838/goes11452011161aw8k8q.jpg/)
:sonrisa:
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Amanecer de Adrián.
Ultimo Visible
(http://img815.imageshack.us/img815/6039/fffef.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/815/fffef.jpg/)
01E ADRIAN 110610 1200 15.2N 107.2W EPAC 120 948
01E ADRIAN 110610 1200 15.2N 107.2W EPAC 120 948
01E ADRIAN 110610 0600 14.8N 106.1W EPAC 120 946
01E ADRIAN 110610 0600 14.8N 106.1W EPAC 120 946
01E ADRIAN 110610 0600 14.8N 106.1W EPAC 120 946
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(http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/3464/latesta.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/607/latesta.jpg/)
Perdida de convección y calentamiento de los topes.
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Adrián pierde fuelle poco a poco. A partir de ahora desgaste progresivo. SST a partir de ahora en torno a 27º-28º.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
(http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/2699/fffss.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/832/fffss.jpg/)
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE
AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. WITH NO
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE
THE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF.
(http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/9586/adrianjun10.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/195/adrianjun10.jpg/)
Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.
By Jeff Masters.
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Loop MIMIC
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-8.gif)
Sin aparentes signos de un ciclo de reemplazo.
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Image.jpg)
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Uf!! Qué mal aspecto comienza a hacer....
ADRIAN ya es huracan cat 2 con vientos de 87 KT y una presión estimada de 971 hPa segun ADT a las 7.30 UTC. Su intensidad en caída libre a partir de ahora...Esta noche o mañana a primera hora podría perder ya la cat de huracán.
(http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/5500/1162011adrian.gif)
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ADRIÁN en caida libre
...ADRIAN WEAKENING VERY RAPIDLY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 110.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH... 75KT...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
A COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP THE
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND GOING
96 horas dicen los modelos que le quedan tropicales. El NHC anticipa que puede que sea menos tiempo, antes de que sea historia tropical
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Adrián como Depresión Tropical y como es lógico casi extinguido.
A continuación pongo unas buenas imágenes de Adrián .... El inesperado bicho anular que ha estrenado el EPAC en este 2011 :P
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/PhotoAdrianep201101_sat1.jpg)
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/PhotoAdrian20110610_1316_f16_x_composite_01EADRIAN_120kts-948mb-152N-1072W_60pc.jpg)
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/PhotoAdrian20110610_1336_f17_x_geovis_01EADRIAN_120kts-948mb-152N-1072W_31pc.jpg)
Y la más imponente para mi... :-* :-* :-*
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/PhotoAdrianlatestfull.jpg)
Sin duda un ciclón bien rebelde ....
;)
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Radiografía de una Baja Remanente. El NHC no emitirá mas avisos
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)