Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Jueves 22 Mayo 2014 14:16:45 pm
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9923/epac1_zsa6.gif)
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system during the next few days while
it moves northwestward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
Publicado por: Sudoku en Jueves 22 Mayo 2014 18:37:23 pm
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Jueves 22 Mayo 2014 20:47:55 pm
1. Visible satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
becoming better organized near an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves northwestward to west-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8667/rgb0_lalo_hii6.gif)
Podríamos estar hablando del inicio de la temporada en el Pacífico Este, sin lugar a dudas
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Viernes 23 Mayo 2014 01:18:44 am
PRIMERA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA 2014 EN EL PACÍFICO ESTE :yasiviene:
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9460/rgb0_lalo__1__ylv4.gif)
Pico de 55 nudos en 72 horas. Tiene buenas condiciones para desarrollarse, y parece que no afectará a tierra.
Ya comienza lo bueno, nos mantendremos atentos..... >:D
Publicado por: Sudoku en Viernes 23 Mayo 2014 17:36:29 pm
Pero en la última actualización de ADT ya estaríamos viendo la primera Tormenta tropical de la temporada ó séase AMANDA. A la espera del parte del NHC
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1006.5mb/ 41.0kt
Publicado por: Sudoku en Viernes 23 Mayo 2014 17:44:22 pm
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM AMANDA... :P
Citar
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 231445
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 108.4W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 24 Mayo 2014 08:50:13 am
La última pasada del microondas ya deja entrever un incipiente OJO porque aunque el NHC le da 50 kt. en Dvorak se dispara a 59 kts., lo que es más plausible viendo las imágenes del "bicho". De momento y de forma oficial, 01EAMANDA.45kts-1002mb-111N-1089W
Veremos si no tenemos Cat. 1 por la tarde. :-X
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 24 Mayo 2014 12:43:46 pm
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... :laleche: :nocomment:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.2mb/ 63.0kt
Citar
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014
Amanda has continued to become better organized during the past 6
hours, with the system now showing a well-defined central dense
overcast and increasing outer convective banding. Satellite
intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB. In
addition, Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from CIMSS are
near 60 kt, and a recent AMSU intensity estimate from CIRA was 76
kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, and
this could be conservative.
The initial motion estimate is 295/04. There is little change to
the track forecast or the track forecast reasoning. Amanda is
moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico. This current slow motion is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours or so. A turn toward the northwest is
shown around 36-48 hours, with a slight northward acceleration
expected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east
and a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west. The new
forecast track is similar to, but slightly faster than, the
previous track.
The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours,
with Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical
wind shear environment. The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State
Superensemble models also call for rapid strengthening. Based on
this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for
24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more
than currently forecast. After 48 hours, a combination of
increasing shear caused by the approaching trough and decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady to
rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger
than the previous forecast through 48 hours, and after that it shows
a faster weakening than the previous forecast.
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 24 Mayo 2014 17:13:25 pm
...AMANDA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
Primeros Visibles del dia. A ver si nos sacan una buena pasada a 85 gHz, para ver su "entrañas". ::)
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 24 Mayo 2014 21:35:38 pm
Primeros Visibles del dia. A ver si nos sacan una buena pasada a 85 gHz, para ver su "entrañas". ::)
Edito: Sube a 70kt-987mb en consonancia con ADT. ::)
Publicado por: Sudoku en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 07:10:56 am
Publicado por: Sudoku en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 07:21:28 am
...AMANDA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...
Dvorak es........................ :-X :-X
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.3mb/102.0kt
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 09:14:29 am
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5388/20140525.0142.f17.x.91h_1deg.01EAMANDA.85kts_978mb_115N_1105W.57pc_xbm8.jpg)
Si todo sigue asi, no descarto que logre alcanzar los 120-125 nudos durante la jornada de hoy..... :yasiviene:
Publicado por: gdvictorm en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 13:00:12 pm
Aluncinante como ha empezado para ser el primer ciclón tropical de la temporada. Viene pisando fuerte el Pacífico Este. :cold:
Un saludo.
Publicado por: Frente atlantico en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 13:52:27 pm
Publicado por: gdvictorm en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 17:38:35 pm
...Raspando la categoría 5 con esos vientos sostenidos de 249km/h (135kt). Espectacular sistema el que tenemos en el Pacífico este en estos momentos, más aún teniendo en cuenta que estamos en mayo y a principios de temporada. Alucinante la potencia que tiene... :master:
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 17:49:55 pm
Madredelamorhermoso.... Alucinante nuestra amiga AMANDA; de récord.
Amanda is now the strongest May hurricane on record in the eastern
Pacific basin during the satellite era. If Amanda were to reach an
intensity of 140 kt, it would become the earliest category 5
hurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Ava of 1973.
Tremendo.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9990/rb_lalo_animated_nsn3.gif)
Por cierto, que en esa imagen se observa muy bien, Amanda se está manteniendo prácticamente estático en las ultimas horas, y comienza a aparecer el temido upwelling.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5435/rgb0_lalo_whm8.gif)
¿Conseguirá la Categoría 5? :yasiviene:
Publicado por: LightMatter en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 18:33:41 pm
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif)
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 19:26:38 pm
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 930.4mb/137.4kt
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1499/20140525.1459.f18.x.91h_1deg.01EAMANDA.135kts_932mb_117N_1111W.69pc_hmf7.jpg)
Respecto al upwelling:
Amanda has likely reached its peak intensity, or is very close to
it. Although the SHIPS intensity model indicates SSTs warmer than
29C exists beneath and ahead of the hurricane, various SST analysis
products at 1200 UTC this morning indicate that cold upwelling has
already begun beneath the cyclone, and this cold upwelling should be
exacerbated even further now the cyclone is moving at a forward
speed of only 2 kt. As a result, steady weakening is expected within
the next 12 hours or so.
Atentos a sus pantallas porque puede saltar la liebre.... :ejemejem:
Publicado por: Sudoku en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 19:56:25 pm
El NIÑO este año puede dar grandes sorpresas en esta cuenca.
Saludos.
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Domingo 25 Mayo 2014 23:04:48 pm
Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Amanda
likely peaked in intensity around 1200 UTC this morning and has
started weakening since then
El visible no deja lugar a dudas.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3632/rgb_lalo_animated_ssm4.gif)
Ojo porque el debilitamiento va a ser muy rápido, las condiciones se están tornando verdaderamente hostiles. Mañana a estas horas yo creo que no será ni huracán.... :nononono:
Bonito sistema
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Martes 27 Mayo 2014 22:54:20 pm
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8196/rgb0_lalo_aim7.gif)
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8616/wv0_lalo_ozk2.gif)
Publicado por: Sudoku en Jueves 29 Mayo 2014 19:06:53 pm
Citar
...AMANDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 110.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOWER
EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
AMADA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI