Foro de Tiempo.com
Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Pepeavilenho en Domingo 20 Mayo 2012 22:45:00 pm
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Viendo el bicho que desarrolla el Europeo...
(http://i50.tinypic.com/29lydts.gif)
...creo que es conveniente abrir el tópic, de momento el NHC le da un 40%.
25kts-1006mb
(http://i45.tinypic.com/ao9650.jpg)
Veremos :sherlock:
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El NHC Emite un aviso especial aumentándole a un 60% de probabilidades de convertirse en depresión tropical.
UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... :mucharisa:
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Se está organizando moderadamente rápido, pero la convección profunda aún se encuentra muy alejada del centro.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-lalo-10.jpg)
México tiene el primer gran problema de la temporada.
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El NHC apuesta por un Huracán Categoría 2 dirección al SO de México.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 9.4N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 9.7N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
De momento lo que comenta Hardstyle, tiene que "enrollarse" entorno al centro.
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El motivo principal por el cual tal previsiones dadas para Alberto, pero de momento se encuentra como ayer.
Indices de acumulación por calor oceánico en capas superficiales del océano por donde va a discurrir el paseíto de Alberto.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/2012EP02_OHCNFCST_201205210600.jpg)
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Nota importante para que nos acordemos bien todos.
Reajuste de la escala Saffir-Simpson
From:
Category 3: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt, 178-209 km/h)
Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, 210-249 km/h)
Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, 250 km/h or
higher)
To:
Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h)
Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h)
Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or
higher)
Con 113 KT Categoría 4 en vez los 114 KT
Con 137 KT Categoría 5 en vez los 136 KT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20120301_pis_sshws.php
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/watl_avn_loop.gif)
;)
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Se aglutina poco a poco la convección profunda entorno al centro, por lo demás... sin cambios significativos.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-1531.gif)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov
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Tenemos la segunda tormenta tropical de la temporada en el Eastern Pacific.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION DUE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30 TO 35 KT
WINDS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS DATA THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...
THE SECOND OF THE 2012 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY TODAY. BY
TONIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BUD. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGS BUD TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING
SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120
HOURS.
CENTER FIXES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES DURING THE PAST
12-18 HOURS SHOWS THAT BUD IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...295/10 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND BECOMES QUITE LARGE. THERE ARE
BASICALLY TWO CAMPS OF MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE...THOSE THAT SHOW A
DEEPER TROUGH WHICH CAUSES BUD TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MEXICO...AND A SECOND GROUP THAT TURNS BUD NORTHEASTWARD...BUT
SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT NEARS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD
FOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 10.4N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 12.4N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.3N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.3N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.5N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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¡Ahí va, qué buen aspecto! :o
Comienza a carburar y a desarrollar bandas hacia el WNW. Como ha puesto Sagrajeño, el NHC prevee que sea Huracán en unas 40 horas, pero visto lo visto, puede que se adelante.
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Cambio drástico en su trayectoria, no llegará a penetrar en México y virará justo en sus costas, rumbo sur como Tormenta Tropical. !!Ojo¡¡ que este nuevo Track, puede ser incluso mucho más perjudicial, pues estará estancado 24 horas frente a las costas mexicanas.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/graphics_ep2.jpg)
;)
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Cizalladura afectando a Bud.
(http://i45.tinypic.com/34o9dux.jpg)
APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT BUD
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En el ultimo parte del NHC (9) tan solo le dan un pico de 55kts.
Comentan que la cizalladura esta afectando al sistema, y que pese a que la SST es favorable, una masa de aire seco va a afectar al sistema en los próximos dias. Además los modelos no marcan un desarrollo profundo del sistema, en base a un desacople entre los niveles medio-bajo y los niveles altos del mismo.
En resumidas cuentas:
THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE
Vamos a ver de lo que es capaz por que a esta hora de la mañana su aspecto no es tan malo.
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En el ultimo parte del NHC (9) tan solo le dan un pico de 55kts.
Comentan que la cizalladura esta afectando al sistema, y que pese a que la SST es favorable, una masa de aire seco va a afectar al sistema en los próximos dias. Además los modelos no marcan un desarrollo profundo del sistema, en base a un desacople entre los niveles medio-bajo y los niveles altos del mismo.
En resumidas cuentas:
THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE
Vamos a ver de lo que es capaz por que a esta hora de la mañana su aspecto no es tan malo.
Posible "resbalón" de los pronosticadores. Tan solo hay que echarle un vistazo al Visible y ver las numerosas explosiones rodeando el sistema y su centro completamente tapado. Sube a 55 Kts-997 Mb. No me fio. Este va derechito a Puerto Vallarta. :cold:
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Última imagen a 85 Ghz
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Rectifican y le meten un pico de 75Kts en 24 horas derechito hacia la costa oeste mexicana.
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2u6pe9h.gif)
02EBUD.55kts-997mb-132N-1074W
(http://i46.tinypic.com/14445cl.jpg)
Excelente seguimientos compañeros, yo ando en OFF volviendo loca mi cabeza con modelos económicos abstractos y demás temas... :crazy: :crazy:
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Ando muy liado como para poder colaborar en condiciones en el seguimiento :-[ Muchas gracias a todos los que estáis colaborando.
Os dejo una bonita animación del canal visible :P
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-881.gif)
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Ganando enteros con el paso de las horas. BUD a puntito de caramelo con 60Kts-992Mb
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240545
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH BY LATE FRIDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Como una moto
75kts-980mb
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2ib15vs.jpg)
El NHC le da un pico de 75kts, cosa que ya ha conseguido.
¿RI?
Buufffff :runaway:
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE. A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO. THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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(http://i45.tinypic.com/29wmq2s.jpg)
Dvorak dice:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.9mb/ 82.2kt
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La estructura de su anillo convectivo es de un casi... Categoría 3
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/4c3033c5.jpg)
WoW con el primero de la temporada :cold:
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A cada salida.....y se siguen quedando cortos. Sube hasta los 90Kts-970Mb. Como no acierten con el Track, a los de Puerto Vallarta les van a doler la cabeza. :cold: :cold:
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Ya es categoria 2, y esta muy cerca de ser categoria 3.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241439
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A
WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2. THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
BUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
AIR. IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...
AND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
MIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT
MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL. THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD
DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.
BUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
030 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...
WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS
BRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
STILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON
DAY 3.
DUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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95kts-965mb
Esto atufa a Major ::)
(http://i47.tinypic.com/34643nq.jpg)
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.4mb/117.4kt
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-200.jpg)
Se dispara de manera significativa, pero por ponerle un pego... los topes no son lo suficientemente fríos.
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Atención a la animación que me he currado :cold:
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-1032.gif)
:risa:
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Atento atento..... ::)
EP, 02, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1065W, 100, 961, HU
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2nvrzo4.jpg)
No es oficial, es un dato del Best Track ;)
pd:Edito, moderador novato :-[
-
Ya es oficial.
100kts-961mb
Tenemos Major.
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2rpfasm.jpg)
Menudo monstenco más serio...
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Pues si, se está desarrollando en un entorno bastante favorable... Tendrán que prestar atención al oleaje mañana en las costas mexicanas de Manzanillo, porque podría ser significativo, como cada vez que un gran huracán surca esas aguas.
Está reforzando mucho su anillo central y sin embargo, las bandas exteriores no parecen ser muy uniformes. No creo que por ahora sean características significativas, pero dado el potencial que tiene esa cuenca de generar huracanes anulares, no perdería de vista esos detalles.
Saludos. ;)
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Veremos a ver esa trayectoria prevista. Los Modelos ven a BUD rebotar cerca de la costa, para luego dirigirse hacia el SW, pero ahora el consenso ya no está tan claro. El problema es que ahora se las tienen que ver con un Cat. 3 que ampliará su radio de acción y que debido a las corrientes débiles, puede quedarse estacionario dos ó tres dias pegado a la costa y haciendo mucha "pupa" en forma sobre todo, de lluvias torrenciales.
Veremos. ::)
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Pues si, se está desarrollando en un entorno bastante favorable... Tendrán que prestar atención al oleaje mañana en las costas mexicanas de Manzanillo, porque podría ser significativo, como cada vez que un gran huracán surca esas aguas.
Que buen ojo tienes Victor :sonrisa:
Pero tendría que alcanzar primero la categoría de Major, generar vientos superiores a los 60 KT en toda la periferia de su centro (bandas), absorber gran cantidad de aire seco para poder eliminar toda la convección profunda de las bandas en espiral, sin que sea inyectado en su centro, pues el grosor de su anillo convectivo debería ser uniforme, simétrico, profundo y muy grueso, para que haga de buen escudo ante tal elemento. De momento se observa aire seco al Norte del sistema, que en las ultimas horas parece ser que ya está ejerciendo su influencia en el 3º y 4º cuadrante, pero las condiciones ya no son tan favorables para un fortalecimiento más significativo, por lo que descartaría claramente lo de llegar a ser un sistema anular o adquirir ciertas características anulares.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/2012EP02_16KMGWVP_201205241800.gif)
Pero bueno, es mi opinión. ;)
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Aire seco zampándose a Bud
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-lalo-12.jpg)
;)
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Bud está hecho unos zorros.
(http://i47.tinypic.com/rby5p2.jpg)
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Bud está hecho unos zorros.
Buff, y tanto...
Ya no hay ni rastro de la bien definida estructura que llego a tener.
Desintegrandose a marchas forzadas, mantiene 45Kts en el último parte pero pronto sera degradado a depresión tropical.
BUD / 45Kt / 1002mb
(http://i45.tinypic.com/302o00h.jpg)
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Tan rápido como llegó, se fué.
BUD IS ASSESSED TO BE A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
Ya es historia tropical.
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¿Al final generó lluvias torrenciales como se había dicho, o no tuvo mayores consecuencias sobre tierra?
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¿Al final generó lluvias torrenciales como se había dicho, o no tuvo mayores consecuencias sobre tierra?
Las precipitaciones que trajo el meteoro a los estados de Jalisco, Nayarit, Colima y Durango sirvieron apenas para mojar esos territorios, señaló el director general de la Comisión Nacional del Agua, José Luis Luege, quien adelantó que se espera un 2012 seco.
Después de alcanzar la categoría tres en la escala Saffir-Simpson, Bud se degradó rápidamente ayer a depresión tropical durante su desplazamiento hacia la zona costera del centro-occidente de Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, informó el Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil.
Tampoco es que generará grandes daños.
Huracán Bud solo mojó estados mexicanos, la sequía sigue (http://www.prensa-latina.cu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=510806&Itemid=1)
Un saludo. ;)