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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Parungo en Domingo 20 Junio 2010 23:44:44 pm
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Esto es un tren Tropical... y la posible causa de que CELIA no carbure en el Este...
- ATCF
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952010.invest
EP, 95, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 80N, 890W, 20, 1009, LO, 34
Podéis abrir vosotros los Invest. ;)
Hay un nuevo invest en el EPAC
(http://i45.tinypic.com/sux8it.jpg)
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Otro más :cold:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Pues el europeo y el CM ven movimiento por la zona, no se yo... ???
pD:Parungo, un día te vas a adelantar al ATCF.... ;D
:P
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De momento le dan 20kt
Un par de imágenes :
(http://fotos.subefotos.com/5a9eceb06913ccd706b168311862aafdo.gif)
(http://fotos.subefotos.com/98f223b9194b0d76fe12e605dd4c7447o.jpg)
Parece que tiene buenas condiciones a su alrededor.
Esto es un tren Tropical... y la posible causa de que CELIA no carbure en el Este...
:brothink:
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Las probabilidades aumentan a nivel naranja ( 40% )
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
(http://i49.tinypic.com/24g0nrm.gif)
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Cierto Kike, estáis teniendo por allá con comienzo de temporada bastante animado eeh! 8)
Europeo y CMC ven desarrollo de este INVEST a 4-6 días vista.
Mr.Barcos(SHIPS :rcain:) TT de 50 kt a +120h
De serlo sería Darby
De momento es un INVEST bastante pobre.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
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Si pepe ;D, animado el comienzo de temporada en el EPAC
Cambiando no mucho de tema el CNH ya ubica en nivel ROJO(60%) al invest 95E
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
(http://i50.tinypic.com/j9sm5k.gif)
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Y en este caso, entiendo menos todavía
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No decían que la temporada del EPAC iba a ser flojita... menudo tren ciclónico :-X
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Actualiza el NHC.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Tienen muchas esperanzas en Florida con éste INVEST, vamos a ver cómo evoluciona
:P
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eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeepssssssssss
8)
ahí esta la conveccion... ::)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
le dan ya un 70% de chance
1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.
:P
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Pues va mejorando con las horas...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
A ver si Mr. Darby está llamando a la puerta....Tiene pinta de que así puede ser.
:P
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Sigue mejorando le dan un 80% de posibilidades de desarrollo.
(http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/3931/epac1.gif) (http://img190.imageshack.us/i/epac1.gif/)
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_epac_sub.shtml?area1#contents
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90% ::)
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM THIS EVENING OR
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
(http://i48.tinypic.com/w2exrp.gif)
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DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 05E
ATCF
EP, 05, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 108N, 930W, 30, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, S,
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...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
Pues ya tenemos una nueva depresión tropical segun el NHC no se va a intensificar considerablemente debido a la cizalladura.
INITIAL 23/0300Z 11.0N 93.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 11.5N 94.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 12.0N 96.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 12.8N 97.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 99.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 15.0N 102.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W 40 KT
(http://i49.tinypic.com/263g4yf.gif)
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(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SHEAR
En esto tiene mucho que ver CELIA
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Ya es Tormenta Tropical "DARBY" ::)
IMÁGENES de satélite indican que la depresión tropical AL SUR DE LA
COSTA SUR DE MÉXICO ha fortalecido a una tormenta tropical . AT 200
AM PDT ... 0900 UTC ... EL CENTRO DE DARBY la tormenta tropical se localizaba
Cerca de la latitud 11,5 norte ... LONGITUD 94.0 OESTE . DARBY SE VA
Hacia el noroeste cerca de 9 MPH ... 15 KM / HR . Un giro hacia el
Oeste-noroeste y luego al oeste con una disminución gradual hacia adelante
SE ESPERA DE VELOCIDAD a jueves.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 40 MPH ... 65
KM con ráfagas más fuertes . Fortalecimiento adicional se pronostica
DURANTE las próximas 48 horas .
Vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia afuera hasta 50 millas ... 85 KM
AL OESTE DEL CENTRO .
ESTIMADO presión central mínima es 1005 MB ... 29.68 PULGADAS .
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Pues si que se ha dado prisa....
35 kt según el NHC
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION
CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR..
THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER DARBY SHOULD
ABATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...GIVING THE SYSTEM A CHANCE TO
INTENSIFY. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS STILL MIGHT BE
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A 1 IN
4 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHATEVER
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER DAY 3 IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IF DARBY BEGINS TO ATTAIN
AN EASTERLY MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 11.5N 94.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 11.9N 95.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 12.4N 96.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 12.8N 98.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 13.0N 99.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 13.5N 101.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
:P
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Adquiere bastante buen aspecto, aunque como en el caso de Celia, no termina de organizar la convección como debiera de ser.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
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Tengo especial interés en ver que pasa con esta tormenta, porque tiene por un lado al outflow de CELIA, y por otro, al 93L
En el primer caso, si CELIA se aleja hacia el interior del Pacífico, no habrá problema, ya que no habrá vientos en altura perjudiciales para DARBY. Sin embargo, si CELIA se estanca, y además, se intensifica, el desarrollo de DARBY se complica
De igual manera, interesante el devenir de la 93L. Parece que la vaguada que generó a DARBY, tiene algo que decir en el futuro ALEX
A ver, a ver... 8)
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Datos actualizados. DARBY sube de fuerza
05EDARBY.45kts-1000mb-117N-944W
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
El GOES no va :P
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Pero bueno!
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 11.8N 94.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 12.2N 95.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 12.6N 97.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 12.9N 98.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 13.2N 99.8W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 13.7N 101.1W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 14.2N 101.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 14.7N 101.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Otro con prisa....vaya inicio de temporada...
Y además viene con ganas... :-X
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
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Que cabrón, que rápido se está desarrollando
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Si no llega a estar CELIA...
Cuidado México, que va para allá
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DARBY continua su intensificación
EP, 05, 2010062318, , BEST, 0, 119N, 956W, 55, 995, TS
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Así es.
Según el NHC 55 kt
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AND A BANDING EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN IMPROVING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
55 KT BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE FUTURE TRACK OF DARBY CONTINUES TO WEIGH HEAVILY UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ::) ------] 8) THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DISTURBANCE TO VARIOUS DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND MOVE THAT
SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY BY 96-120 HOURS AND
CAUSES A DECREASE IN THE STEERING FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND
GFS-PARALLEL RUNS TAKE A RATHER ANEMIC LOOKING DARBY QUICKLY
WESTWARD...WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE
MODELS...WITH MORE WEIGHT BEING PLACED ON THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
DARBY APPEARS TO ALREADY BE ABOUT 12 HOURS INTO A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. A
23/1606Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE EARLIER OBSERVED SLIGHT
WESTWARD TILT OF THE INNER CORE VORTEX COLUMN HAD DIMINISHED...
WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS BETTER VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT
IS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
LESS THAN 5 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT DARBY COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. BY 96 HOURS...
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT MUCH LESS NOW THAN
PREVIOUS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.[/i]
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 12.0N 96.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 12.3N 97.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 12.7N 98.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 13.0N 100.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 13.4N 101.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 14.0N 102.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 14.5N 102.1W 90 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 15.0N 102.1W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER TORRE ;D (no, es Stewart)
TOMA YA! 8)
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Trayectoria
(http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/5373/203612w5nlsm.gif)
carta de Chances...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
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buaaa, que preciosidad de bichito.... 8)
(http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/4120/201006232115goes13xvis1.jpg)
Probablemente mañana alcanze el rango de Huracán.
:P
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Imagen preciosa de Celia y Darby
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Y la cizalladura que sigue fastidiándole, a ver como amanece mañana... :-\
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Buenas noches.
:P
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Primer castañazo de DARBY. Y según el NHC, no parece que haya sido por la cizalladura
WHY THIS IS OCCURRING IS NOT
OBVIOUS...AS THERE ARE NO ANALYSES THAT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM
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Aviso nº 6 del NHC, rozando la Categoría de Huracán, 60 nudos.
- NHC:
ACCORDING TO A 0156 UTC TRMM PASS...A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE APPEARED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVER DARBY. THIS TINY FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT T3.5...55 KT. HOWEVER...THE SAB CLASSIFICATION DID YIELD
A DATA T-NUMBER OF 4.5...77 KT...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BE
STRONGER THAN THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WILL ALLOW...AND IT IS ASSUMED
THAT DARBY MAY HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE. MORE RECENTLY...THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED...BUT A CURVED
BAND HAS DEVELOPED AND IS NOW CONNECTED TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 12.6N 98.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 12.9N 99.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 13.2N 100.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 13.4N 101.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 14.0N 103.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 103.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 103.0W 55 KT
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WHY THIS IS OCCURRING IS NOT
OBVIOUS...AS THERE ARE NO ANALYSES THAT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM
Vaya...de todas formas en el satélite se observa bastante desorganización con 2 bandas de convección.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
De todas formas esto resulta intrigante...
A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE APPEARED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVER DARBY. THIS TINY FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY
::)
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EP, 05, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 127N, 983W, 65, 990, HU
La mejora es palpable.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
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En la discursión sobre el Sistema, se comenta de que dispone de unas 72 horas de ambiente favorable. Luego su movimiento se ralentizará y aumentará la cizalladura sobre el ESE de la zona, pero esto puede ser compensado por las temperaturas tan cálidas que tiene el agua del mar sobre la zona y que permanecerán casi inalterables, por lo menos durante los próximos 5 dias. Comentan que el sistema puede interaccionar con lo que se está formando en estos momentos en el Caribe Occidental, tal como predijo Torre. Y ésto es lo que de momento, mantiene en vilo a los predictores del NHC, que no saben ó no se imaginan de qué forma lo va a hacer ???
Una imagen del visible actual:
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Pues sí ha mejorado respecto a las imágenes de esta mañana. El JTWC le otorga unos vientos de 120 km/h con rachas que rozan los 150 km/h y una previsión de alcanzar los 185 km/h así pues estaríamos ante un 2-3. Otros centros no lo fortalecen tanto. No obstante parece que puede girar cola y afectar el estado de Guerrero (Acapulco).....ya veremos.
La verdad es que la imagen es muy bonita.....
(http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2525/2462010darby.gif)
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DARBY se encuentra más o menos atrapado, entre la circulación de CELIA, y el flujo de vientos procedentes de Centroamérica
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Tiene buen aspecto ahora, y puede seguir creciendo, pero está condenado a largo plazo. Si alcanza más de 80kt, será en estas próximas horas, no veo más allá su desarrollo, porque será cuando la 93L tome cartas en el asunto
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DARBY coge aire
EP, 05, 2010062418, , BEST, 0, 128N, 990W, 70, 980, HU, 64, NEQ
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Celia, Darby y 93L. :cold:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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sale el parte del NHC, que otorga a Darby 70 kt
DARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING
FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER ON...STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY.
THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7. SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A
FEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
SIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 99.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
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Ya ha salido el nuevo parte, donde dicen que DARBY se fortalece un poco más y comienza a ralentizarse el movimiento de traslación hacia el NNE. En la discursión sobre el futuro del Sistema, ya no están tan seguros de que interaccione con la 93-L
Veremos. ::)
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Así es Sudoku, está 2 posts mas arriba... :-[
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER ON...STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY.
Como haga como Celia lo llevan claro...
Aunque la SST y los niveles de THCP habrán descendido debido al paso de Celia, pero son suficientes.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
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DARBY sigue siendo un poco más fuerte, y alcanza los 80kt
INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W 80 KT
El propio NHC comenta que poco más pòdrá fortalecerse
DARBY COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 13.7N 102.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 13.8N 103.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 13.9N 103.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 14.0N 103.8W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 14.4N 103.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 103.3W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
-
Darby ya es Huracán categoria 2, con 90 kt.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250852
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
DARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-N MI EYE FOR ABOUT THE PAST FIVE
HOURS BUT HAS DISPLAYED AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T5.0...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS MOVED INTO A FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR
OF HIGHER SSTS AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS
DARBY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE EXPECT FOR SHIFOR. THE SHIPS RI INDEX DOES
INDICATE A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR DARBY TO
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO SHIPS AND LGEM.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS
STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT
INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET
OUTLIERS. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ESSENTIALLY...THE
STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
FARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/250852.shtml?
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 06/23/10 11.0N 93.4W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 06/23/10 11.5N 94.0W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/23/10 11.8N 94.8W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 06/23/10 12.0N 96.1W 65 995 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 06/24/10 12.3N 97.0W 65 995 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 06/24/10 12.6N 98.0W 70 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/24/10 12.8N 98.7W 75 990 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/24/10 12.9N 99.3W 80 980 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/25/10 13.2N 100.0W 90 978 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/25/10 13.4N 100.7W 105 967 Category 2 Hurricane
-
Como comentan más arriba, ya es un huracán categoría 2, habrá que cambiar el titulo ::)
Una imágen sobre cizalladura y aire seco...
(http://fotos.subefotos.com/1bb6180b14628127f6c8750a9af59448o.gif)
-
una cosita.....las previsiones del NHC marcan otro Major.... :cold:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
No tiene mal aspecto.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
-
Según ATCF actualizado rozando la categoría3:
95kt, 966mb.
- ATCF:
EP, 05, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1009W, 95, 966, HU
-
Amanece en el EPAC. 8)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
::)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:P
-
La virgen con el EPAC... :cold:
...DARBY BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W 100 KT
Y contaba con que a corto plazo cogiera fuerza..., pero tanto reconozco que no. La no influencia de CELIA le ha beneficiado
-
Toma ya con Darby!! :cold:
DARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE
IN A DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
DARBY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE
STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF DARBY...BUT MOST OF THEM WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 13.9N 102.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 13.9N 103.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 13.5N 104.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 13.8N 104.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
La virgen con el EPAC, 2 Majors en Junio...
Esta mañana leí en Storm2k que desde la década de los 70's no se daba un Major en Junio en esta cuenca... ::)
-
Una nueva imágen de Darby, arriba presión estimada según técnica Devorak
(http://fotos.subefotos.com/6c5213665797d06e449058dbcf241f14o.gif)
Va cogiendo fuelle :D
-
Sigue mejorando.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
A ver que dicen en el próximo parte, aunque desde el satélite mejora algo su aspecto.
-
...DARBY INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...
105 KT-960 mb
-
Sale el parte del NHC, otorgado a Darby 105 kt
DARBY REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING A DISTINCT EYE AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC WERE
T5.5...102 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FUTURE STRENGTHENING. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND CAUSE DARBY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/5. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DARBY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS HAVE WILDLY DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE HWRF CONTINUING A WESTWARD MOTION OF DARBY AND
THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION. MOST OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT IS CAUSED BY THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WHETHER THE MUCH-SMALLER DARBY GETS
CAUGHT UP IN WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO. IT IS BEST TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
DARBY IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE FORMATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971...ECLIPSING OF
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF HURRICANE DANIEL ON JUNE 30 1978.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 13.6N 101.5W 105 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 13.7N 102.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 103.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 13.5N 104.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 14.0N 103.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 14.3N 102.7W 55 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
lo que comenataba antes, nuevo record en el EPAC 8)
-
"...MINIATURE DARBY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE..."
Efectivamente, es un huracán muy pequeño. Unos 60 kms de diámetro. Creo que el récord lo tiene Tracy que en la Nvaidad de 1974 arrasó Darwin (Australia) con 48 kms de diámetro y vientos de 240 km/h.
Darby pierde fuelle rápidamente y comienza su giro hacia NW y post a N-NE; previsiblemente no llegará a la costa.
(http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/4291/2662010darby3.jpg)
-
Pos yo si le veo entrando por México, como Tormenta Tropical. Sigo pesando que ALEX actuará de atractor de DARBY
-
Pos yo si le veo entrando por México, como Tormenta Tropical. Sigo pesando que ALEX actuará de atractor de DARBY
Hombre sí está bastante cerca de la costa, pero las previsiones creo que apuntan a debilitarse rápidamente......Claro, no se si han tenido en cuenta la atracción que pueda hacer ALEX......
Acabo de bajarme esta imagen....Darby y Alex en un mismo plano satelital....
(http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/4234/2662010servirmexico2010.jpg)
-
Preciosa imagen Kauri... :o
Pos yo si le veo entrando por México, como Tormenta Tropical. Sigo pesando que ALEX actuará de atractor de DARBY
¿Algún tipo de ''efecto fujiwara''?....¿Al menos algo parecido, no?
Bueno, amanece en el EPAC.
(http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/1988/201006261345goes13xvis1.jpg)
Posee 95 kt.
-
75 kt en el último parte.
Sistema afectado por la cizalladura, que sigue generando explosiones convectivas en torno a su centro, pero que no tardarán que remitir.
Además, seguirá siendo afectado por la cizalladura.
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF DARBY BECAME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST....
APPARENTLY DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THAT TIME...A
NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT
THIS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE TEMPORARY. DVORAK SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 85 KT FROM TAFB AND 95 KT FROM
SAB...BUT THEY ARE CONSTRAINED DUE TO RULES. THE CIMSS ADT AT 1745
UTC WAS 75 KT...WHICH SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SINCE SMALL...
COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN A NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 75 KT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
INDICATES A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 13.4N 102.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 13.5N 103.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 13.8N 103.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 103.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W 40 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 14.9N 101.9W 35 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 101.7W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
;)
-
DARBY al igual que CELIA se debilita a tormenta tropical
EP, 05, 2010062700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1029W, 60, 992, TS, 50, NEQ
-
DARBY baja a 50kt y ya interacciona con ALEX. EL NHC lo comenta:
UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 30 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
THE DECAYING CYCLONE
SHOULD MAKE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE 24 HR PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM ALEX CURRENTLY MOVING OVER YUCATAN
ALEX toma cartas en el asunto, y gana la partida
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
-
No me extraña que Alex gane la partida...es enorme....!!! ;)
Darby, convertido en tormenta tropical tiene las horas contadas. El NHC lo localiza de aquí a 72 horas ya como post-tropical y sin llegar a la costa.
(http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/1228/2762010darby2.gif)
(http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/9302/2762010darby.gif)
-
45 KT para DARBY en el nuevo aviso del NHC
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISTORT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
DARBY...WITH ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO DROP...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS A STRONG BURST OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE EAST OF DARBY IMPACTS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE DARBY IS SUCH A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE
...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND SUCH HIGH SHEAR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD AND IS NEAR...BUT A
LITTLE LOWER THAN...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0854 UTC WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL FOR
FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. NOW THAT DARBY IS WEAKENING...IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT IS SWEPT UP BY A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT WHATEVER REMAINS
OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO.
-
pfff...la cizalladura se lo ha cargado, pobre Darby... :-[
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
En serio, me entra algo cuando veo LLCC ''calvitos'', como el de Celia por ejemplo...me da penilla verlos así.... :'(
-
Que poco le queda al pobre DARBY :-X
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
-
DARBY baja a depresión tropical :'(
EP, 05, 2010062812, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1001W, 30, 1006, TD,
Bye DARBY :(
-
...DARBY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
-
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
...DARBY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
DARBY pasa a mejor vida, aunque en las últimas horas ha tenido un burst cerca de lo que se supone que es el centro