Publicado por: Sudoku en Viernes 27 Noviembre 2015 11:27:39 am
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1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 179.4E TO 13.6S 174.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261832Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S 179.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
179.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 179.8W, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE AREA OF
SHARPEST TURNING. A 260653Z RSCAT PASS REVEALS THE LLCC IS STILL
ELONGATED, WITH 25-30 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN-FLAGGED
REGION. ENHANCED CROSS-EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE LLCC ARE
HELPING TO QUICKLY SPIN UP THIS DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE, WITH FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Publicado por: Sudoku en Viernes 27 Noviembre 2015 20:50:21 pm
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 28 Noviembre 2015 10:30:39 am
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 990.3mb/ 53.0kt