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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Australia => Mensaje iniciado por: Torrelloviedo en Miércoles 27 Febrero 2008 19:00:13 pm
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Sistema Tropical 94S
1003mb-25kt
Abro seguimiento de este sistema, puesto que ya es seguido por Bureau. Además, como algún modelo le da vida tropical, creo que es interesante seguirlo:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [10:30 pm WDT] Wednesday 27 February 2008
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu
[WA] to Port Keats [NT].
At 9:30 pm CST [9:00 pm WDT] a developing Tropical Low was estimated to be 105
kilometres northeast of Kununurra and 110 kilometres south of Port Keats and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.
There is the possibility of a TROPICAL CYCLONE developing in the southern Joseph
Bonaparte Gulf on Friday. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the
next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [9:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 129.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5 am CST [4:30 am WDT] Thursday 28 February.
Está previsto que durante el fin de semana sea cuando más tiempo pase sobre aguas oceanicas. La circulación cerrada y las explosiones convectivas ya las tiene. Solo falta un poco de THCP para que suba como la espuma. Pero repito que eso no ocurrirá hasta el fin de semana. De momento tiene que atravesar el estado del NW de Australia
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/ir94s.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/94Sanima.gif)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/tra94S.gif)
El nombre que le tocaría sería OPHELIA, puesto que cuando es previsible que se organice mejor, será en territorio completamente circunscrito al estado del NW
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Bien organizado antes de salir a aguas del Índico. Mantiene buena estructura, y genera bastante convetividad. De aquí saldrá la próxima TS (Ciclón Tropical cat. 1)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/94Svisible.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/94Svapor.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/94Stra.gif)
8)
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Bureau todavía contempla a este sistema como Tropical Low, pero es cuetión de horas que actualice datos, como ya hizo el JTWC, que ha ha lanzado la primera alerta de formación tropical sobre este sistema. Su LLCC sale a aguas del Índico en estos momentos, y los modelos pintan bien para ver un Ciclón Tropical de cierta entidad. Se aleja de tierra, y se dirige a aguas abiertas del Índico, pero ojo, tropicales, de ahí que se vaya a intensificar. Además, los niveles de TCHP son buenos
Primer parte del JTWC:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 128.5E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. LOCAL AREA RADAR AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVAT-
IONS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EVIDENCE FOR A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER LAND. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVE-
CTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF RADIAL OUTFLOW FORMING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND
COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPON ENCOUNTERING THE
MORE FAVORABLE OVER-WATER CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO WATER AND
AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELO-
PMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/visible21s.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/21svapor.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/mapa21s.gif)
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45 kts - 989 mb, tiene ahora mismo.
Parece que está pasando por problemillas.
Saludos!!!
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60 kts - 978 mb
Se la ve muy desorganizada :(
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CICLÓN TROPICAL OPHELIA CAT. 2 (TS S.S)
978mb-60kt
Los niveles de TCHP no son muy elevados, por lo que veo dificil que alcance categoría de Ciclón Tropical cat. 3 (Huracán). Eso si, la cizalladura es favorable, por lo que el sistema mantendrá características, ni subirá mucho, ni bajará mucho
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliavis.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliatrack.gif)
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OPHELIA repunta ligeramente, con nuevas explosiones convectivas, respecto al aspecto que presentaba esta mañana. El parte del JTWC va en consonancia con lo que comentaba: será un Ciclón constante, rayando fuerza de cat. 3, pero probablemente sin alcanzarla, ya que a pesar de tener oceano cálido y cizalladura favorable, el TCHP no es elevado y dicha cizalladura tenderá a empeorar
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER
THE CENTER OF THE STORM AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, WHICH FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING THAT TOOK
PLACE OVER THE PREVIOUS 06 HOURS. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THIS
TIME, THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DECREASE IN OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliaramsis.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/topesophelia.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/animaophelia.gif)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliabureaui.gif)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/trakophelia.gif)
8)
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OPHELIA gana en organización, pero mantiene fuerza de Ciclón Tropical cat. 2
CICLÓN TROPICAL OPHELIA CAT. 2
978mb-60kt
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/visibleofelia.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/animaofelia.gif)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/ofeliatrak.gif)
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En pocas palabras OPHELIA dentro de poco será historia sin penas ni glorias.
Saludos 8)
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Efectivamente rayo, OPHELIA se ha desecho como una azucarillo, cosa esperable al moverse lentamente hacia aguas más frías y con poco TCHP
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliairr.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliatras.gif)
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OPHELIA vaga por el W de Australia, como CiclónTropical cat. 1, sin más pena que gloria:
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliaultima-1.jpg)
(http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa194/pepito23_2007/huracanes%20desde%20nicholas/opheliatrayectoria.gif)