Foro de Tiempo.com
Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Pepeavilenho en Miércoles 04 Agosto 2010 20:51:15 pm
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(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
2. A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Voy con todo con éste Invest, me juego incluso el cuadro que tengo en mi cuarto de Doña Grace(no es ninguna coña que lo tenga 8))
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
A ver si acaba esa interacción con tierra....por cierto....es la onda tropical del Caribe de hace dos días...
A ver el EPAC, que está muy parado, confío que el area en seguimiento que estaba en nivel amarillo en el Caribe ayude a tener el 5º sistema nombrado de la temporada.
8)
edito:TORRE, SI NO SALE NADA, EL CASTIGO ES UN DÍA DE NEVERA EN EL FORO TROPICAL 8)
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mmm...parece que está siendo afectado por la cizalladura(no he mirado mapas :P) o tal vez por la interacción con tierra que le esté haciendo mella.
(http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/3789/201008042115goes13xvis1.jpg)
I've just a feeling about this system... 8)
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Cerca de ser depresión tropical
RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
ANGEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Imagen del radar de puerto ángel, OAXACA ::)
(http://i38.tinypic.com/2ji814.gif)
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(http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/5391/twoepac.gif)
(http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/3931/epac1.gif)
(http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/5267/visl2956937.jpg)
(http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/3074/avnl3039987.jpg)
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Lanzada la alerta de formación tropical. 8)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Latest
Cerca de tener la.....6ª Depresión, si no me falla la memoria... 8)
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El GFDL ve un huracán categoría 1 de 69 KT en 42 horas
El HWRF ve una tormenta tropical de 51 KT en 30 horas
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El GFDL ve un huracán categoría 1 de 69 KT en 42 horas
El HWRF ve una tormenta tropical de 51 KT en 30 horas
(http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/782/slp90345849.png)
(http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/6920/slp5.png)
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LUPO, cambia el tamaño de los mapas cuando puedas, que está el topic un poco descuadrado. :-[
Gracias por ponerlos, veo que ambos no lo separan mucho de las costas de manzanillo.... :P
Grrrr..... >:( Estelle, sal de donde estés...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Lo bueno de estos sistemas tan cercanos a tierra es que el NHC los tiene aún mas vigilados si cabe.
Confío en que el GFS y el CMC ven desarrollo, por lo menos una TT de 40-50 kts en 4-5 días
El europeo hace 2-3 días si que veía desarrollo, ahora prácticamente nada...
8)
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Parungo....estás en todo, eres como mi pensamiento....más rápido incluso... ;D :-*
Bueno, que está la página del NHC caída...80%
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY
TIME TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
I believe!! :D
Hasta los satélites se ven mal... :cold:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Grace....no te descuelgues de la pared de mi cuarto.... 8)
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DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 07E
EP, 07, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1017W, 30, 1004, TD,
Pronto el nuevo aviso del NHC ::)
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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Pico de intensidad de 60 KT en 48 HRS
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Estaba claro.... ;D
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
WERE 2.5...WHICH SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT A PERHAPS CONSERVATIVE 30 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THIS IS AT THE
UPPER-END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 16.0N 102.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 16.4N 103.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.0N 105.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 17.7N 106.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 19.7N 110.8W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Graciasssss ;D
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Le está bien empleado al NHC. Por tanto esperar algunas veces, le pasan estas cosas. La 07E ha entrado en combustión espontanea
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Con una circulación conseguida, y sobre aguas cálidas, es esperable que recupere convección en poco tiempo. Pero denota que tanta memez del 80% y 90%, a veces, es contraproducente :P
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¿07L?
... alguno está frenopático y y en ocasiones ve fantasmas...
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Pues en las últimas imágenes de sat. .....Previsiblemente será tormenta tropical aunque no parece que vaya a ir a más..... A ver qué da de sí!!! ;)
(http://a.imageshack.us/img36/2880/682010dt7l.gif)
(http://a.imageshack.us/img405/4924/682010dt7l1.gif)
(http://a.imageshack.us/img97/1395/682010dt7l2.gif)
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060843
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
RE-FORMING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A
BLEND OF SATELLITE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600
UTC OF 25 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0436
UTC THAT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING
THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BEYOND 72 HOURS
...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED
BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS PATTERN WOULD USUALLY FAVOR A
NORTHWARD TURN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW BY THAT TIME
AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD
IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE THROUGH 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.3N 103.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 104.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.3N 106.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.7N 109.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 111.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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¿07L?
... alguno está frenopático y y en ocasiones ve fantasmas...
:-X
La emoción del momento y además eran las 5 de la madrugada....disculpa!! :-[
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Por cierto....creo que este sistema fue esta onda tropical.... ::)
Fue la que tuvo nivel amarillo en el Caribe hará ya 4-5 días ;)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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Nuevo parte del Nhc, aun sigue siendo Depresión tropical ::)
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 061450
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES ON THE SOUTH AND
EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO
CONFIRM THE INITIAL POSITION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT
30 KT...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LOW
SHEAR AND WARM WATER LIKELY. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING GIVEN THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO
CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...290/9...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK RIDGING OVER MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHETHER THE CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE...OR CONTINUE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME.
GENERALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHILE THE
HWRF/GFDL AND THE BAMS GUIDANCE ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN 6
HOURS AGO. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.6N 104.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 105.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.8N 107.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 108.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 18.8N 109.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTELLE
EP, 07, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1045W, 35, 1003, TS,
(http://i36.tinypic.com/25ew7s5.jpg)
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Por fiin!! ;D
39 días han pasado desde Darby... :cold:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.2N 105.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
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39 días han pasado desde Darby... :cold:
De la discusión del NHC
AFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
ESTELLE HAS FORMED
8)
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Pues para que veas, es que este parón de actividad no ha sido normal... :cold:
A ver si sale una de 85 GHz que abarque más %....por que aquí se intuye ''algo'' :-X
(http://img541.imageshack.us/img541/2096/201008061933trmmxtmi85h.jpg)
O al menos parece que se intuye.... ::)
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ESTELLE con 10 KT más de fuerza ::)
EP, 07, 2010080700, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1058W, 45, 1000, TS,
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El pronóstico del SHIPS es aclaratorio.....
SST en descenso y cizalladura en aumento.
* ESTELLE EP072010 08/07/10 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 49 45 41 36 32 27 23
V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 49 45 41 36 32 27 23
V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 48 48 47 44 41 37 33 29 26 22
SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 11 10 9 13 13 14 19 18 20 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 4 9 3 5
SHEAR DIR 99 92 93 90 98 138 129 143 125 142 138 136 128
SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
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50 kts en el ultimo parte.....
Y rponostican un máximo de 55 kts durante el día de mañana, posteriormente debilitiamiento.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Muy pequeña es Estelle
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Ahora sí.... 8)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Puaf! El tamaño es infimo!!
A ver el parte.....pero 55/60 kts si que puede que le otorguen....ya el rango de Huracán me parece algo más dificl... :-\
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Pues no se que decirte, pero el aspecto que presenta en estos momentos...... ::)
Si no consigue la Cat. 1, se va a quedar muuuuuuy cerca.
;)
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Miralo... ;D
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 17.3N 109.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 112.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 17.5N 113.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 113.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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40kt
Un ambiente cada vez más estable se está encargando de engullir lentamente a la tormenta
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 17.7N 112.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 17.6N 112.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 17.4N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.2N 114.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 13/0600Z 16.2N 112.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Muy mal aspecto, está desintegrándose rápidamente.
;)
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"Eso" es ESTELLE
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
35kt en el último parte. Dos telediarios le doy antes de que el NHC le de la patada
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...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
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Yo de verdad que no puedo con este hombre.... :mucharisa: :mucharisa:
HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT...WHICH LEAVES
OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 17.4N 113.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 113.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 111.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART (quien si no?)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
A ver si se regenera :rcain: Habrá que tenerla vigilada... :rcain:
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Bye bye ESTELLE
BASED ON THE LACK OF ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ESTELLE NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.
de todas formas, mucho ojo...
THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND GET DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER OR NOT
ESTELLE REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY THE
DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. GIVEN THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
LATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
;)