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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico SurOeste => Mensaje iniciado por: hardstyle en Lunes 10 Enero 2011 16:21:18 pm
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20 knots 998HPA
El BOM no descarta que llegue a CAT.II
Advisory Number 4 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila
at 1:25am VUT Tuesday 11 January 2011.
At 11:00pm local time today, Tropical Low (998 hPa) was located near 17.4S 168.8E.
The Tropical Low is positioned at letter I, Number 7 of the Vanuatu Tropical
Cyclone Tracking map. That is about 50 KM east northeast of Efate. The system
is moving southwest at 3 KM/HR. The potential for the system to become a
tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours and move towards the Vanuatu
group is moderate to high.
Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (5am, 11 Jan) 17.6S, 168.8E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11am, 11 Jan) 17.8S, 168.8E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5pm, 11 Jan) 18.0S, 168.7E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11pm, 11 Jan) 18.2S, 168.6E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11am, 12 Jan) 18.6S, 168.0E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11pm, 12 Jan) 19.1S, 167.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
Heavy rainfall and thunder is expected over Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa
provinces and extending to Shefa and Tafea provinces, later. Flooding over low
lying areas is expected. Winds of 40 to 60 kilometres per hour are expected
inland over south of Penama, Shefa, Malampa and Tafea Province in the next
24 to 48 hours. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advices people
in these areas to take extra precautions, especially people closer to the river
banks.
The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next advisory on the system
at 06:00am today or earlier if the situation changes. People should listen to
Radio outlets for any update information on this system.
(http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/6767/imagegqz.gif) (http://img9.imageshack.us/i/imagegqz.gif/)
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/0825 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 997HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.4S
170.1E AT 100600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TD03F, REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 6:13pm on Monday the 10th of January 2011
Situation: A trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain
remains slow moving over the Fiji group.
Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group:
Occasional rain and few squally thunderstorms over most places.
Isolated heavy falls likely.
Flooding of low lying areas expected.
Moderate north to northeast winds, fresh and gusty at times.
Rough seas.
(http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/2691/gmsir.gif) (http://img638.imageshack.us/i/gmsir.gif/)
Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 11:57pm on Monday the 10th of January 2011
Situation:
A trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain remains slow
moving over the Fiji group.
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots.
Moderate to rough seas.
Moderate northerly swells.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms.
Further outlook: North to northeast winds up to 20 knots.
El CIMSS ya sigue al sistema , al igual que el centro meteorológico de Fiji.
(http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/1902/imagehl.gif) (http://img341.imageshack.us/i/imagehl.gif/)
(http://img573.imageshack.us/img573/600/img534imageshack.gif) (http://img573.imageshack.us/i/img534imageshack.gif/)
(http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/3069/idy20002mslpprecip162.png) (http://img560.imageshack.us/i/idy20002mslpprecip162.png/)
ECMWF
(http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/2248/wind3285032and32mslpaus.gif) (http://img827.imageshack.us/i/wind3285032and32mslpaus.gif/)
Importante salto ha dado en sus ultimas 24 horas. Saludos
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Vanuatu Group General Situation
A tropical low (998hPa) was located at 16.9S 169.6E, 100000UTC, east of Epi extends a trough over the group.
Ultima Vanautu Group Forecast Chart:
(http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/3594/2011sh931kmsrvis2011011.gif) (http://img192.imageshack.us/i/2011sh931kmsrvis2011011.gif/)
(http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/7159/100000z.png) (http://img211.imageshack.us/i/100000z.png/)
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Parece que ''VANIA'' anda al acecho....
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
...y la TCFA está al caer, JTWC cataloga al sistema con Fair
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25 KT 996 HPA
(http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/3594/2011sh931kmsrvis2011011.gif) (http://img35.imageshack.us/i/2011sh931kmsrvis2011011.gif/)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
169.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE NEAREST REPORTING STATION,
BAUERFIELD EFATE, VANUATU, IS REPORTING 03 MB 24 HR PRESSURE FALLS.
ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED, A 100252Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 100000Z UPPER
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN A
REGION OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND AN AVERAGE OF 10 KTS OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED AND THERE IS NOW RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE
DATA REPORTS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/8062/1127620f620bddaefc4fbf.jpg) (http://img263.imageshack.us/i/1127620f620bddaefc4fbf.jpg/)
(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/4808/1155a16129463632605b0df.png) (http://img228.imageshack.us/i/1155a16129463632605b0df.png/)
Apuestan por una intesificación : EC - GFS - NOGAPS - UK
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Porquita organización, circulación no definida, vaguada demasiado amplia. Si se mantiene estacionaria, logrará ser algo, basicamente porque ganará tiempo al no escapar a baroclinidades
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Sale una nueva trayectoria y probablemente este futuro ciclón esté afectando nueva caledonia.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 995HPA 8)
LAS PROBABILIDADES DE QUE SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24-48 HORAS SIGUEN SIENDO DE MODERADA-FUERTE
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Viendo las últimas imágenes de satélite la 03F a mejorado su aspecto en las pasadas 6 horas y ya el JTWC lanzó la alerta de formación tropical , no deben tardar en aumentarle el rango a ciclón tropical. ::)
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 171.3E TO 24.6S 166.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Pues posee buen aspecto.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Esto es lo que dice Fiji:
LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESISTENT IN THE LAST
3 TO 6 HOURS OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY
DETACHED FROM TD03F. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOONAN TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. CIMSS INDICATE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIROMENT, HOWEVER, HIGH SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE FAR SOUTH GENERATES A SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE.
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE REMAINS MODERATE. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY 5
TO 10 KNOTS NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=
2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Meteo France ya sigue al Sistema , ya que según los últimos modelos va dirección W - SW , dirección New Caledonia
Infos cyclone :
Message émis le : mardi 11 janvier à 12 h locales
Le territoire est placé en pré-alerte cyclonique.
A 5h00 locales le mardi 11/01/2011, une dépression tropicale faible
était centrée par 18,3 sud 170,0 est (soit juste à l'ouest d'Erromango au Vanuatu)
La pression au centre est estimée à 996 hpa.
La dépression évolue doucement sur le Vanuatu en se renforçant progressivement dans les prochaines 24/36 heures. Elle n'est pas encore baptisée mais le sera probablement d'ici demain Elle devrait ensuite prendre une trajectoire vers l'ouest sud-ouest qui la rapprochera des Loyauté en continuant de se renforcer. Elle représente donc une menace sérieuse pour les Loyauté à partir de Jeudi et pour la Grande Terre ensuite.
Les conditions de vent et de pluies vont s'aggraver progressivement demain mais surtout jeudi.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
(http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/6466/trajectoire.jpg) (http://img560.imageshack.us/i/trajectoire.jpg/)
(http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/2020/2011sh934kmirimg2011011.gif) (http://img69.imageshack.us/i/2011sh934kmirimg2011011.gif/)
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La circulación se cierra, los topes se enfrían. Parece haberse organizado. Los avisos como ciclón no deben tardar
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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La marina le otorga intensidad de tormenta tropical además ya la nombran 05P :D
05PFIVE.35kts-996mb-190S-1689E
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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El visible alcanza a la tormenta. A la espera de que NADI actualice
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Primer parte del JTWC
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
La M-WV ha mejorado mucho.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Torre, en principio a las 11:20 UTC ;)
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WTPS11 NFFN 111800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2009 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 990HPA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 19.1S
169.4E AT 111800 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
LLCC OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO NORTH
OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
DEPRESSION LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. TD03F CURRENTLY
STEERED BY NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5, MET=3.0, PT=2.5 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120200 UTC.
(http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/8540/imagezu.gif) (http://img443.imageshack.us/i/imagezu.gif/)
Esperemos que no gire al W ,bastante tienen ya por aquellas zonas australianas.....
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NE OF
NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF.
AN 111003Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED
WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING IT TO A MINIMUM 60-KT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 05P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SSTS
BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT
OF THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110151Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 110200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
BOM
Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (2pm, 12 Jan) 19.1S, 168.7E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (8pm, 12 Jan) 19.3S, 168.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (2am, 13 Jan) 19.6S, 167.7E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (8am, 13 Jan) 19.9S, 167.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (8pm, 13 Jan) 20.8S, 166.4E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (8am, 14 Jan) 21.7S, 165.9E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
(http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3276/gmsir12.gif) (http://img211.imageshack.us/i/gmsir12.gif/)
De CAT.III no pasa...
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La 03F ya ha sido nombrada VANIA y ya comenzó a ganar fuerza según la marina ya posee 40 kt
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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El patrón en capas altas está favoreciendo un buen outflow, con cizalladura inferior a 10kt, sobre aguas de 29ºC. Por tanto, no tiene otra que crecer mientras siga practicamente estacionario
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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VANIA prosigue con su lento, pero constante, desarrollo
05PVANIA.45kts-989mb-191S-1692E
El mapa de trayectorias de Nadi le otorga desarrollo a medida que se acerque a Nueva Caledonia
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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55 KT 987 HPA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/1343 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA. CENTRE 987HPA CAT 1 WAS ANALYSED NEAR
19.3S 169.2E AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE
CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
05 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHWEST.
Evoluciona por momentos , vaya cambios...
(http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/6280/image12s.jpg) (http://img560.imageshack.us/i/image12s.jpg/)
Una duda que tengo ,por el momento le dan trayectoria directa al sur de New Caledonia , según los modelos llegara a 70-75 KT ,¿sera capaz esta pequeña extensión de terreno de rebajarla?
(http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/815/1127620e8bd2ba8fa73ecb.png) (http://img715.imageshack.us/i/1127620e8bd2ba8fa73ecb.png/)
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/0832 UTC 18.8S 169.4E T3.0/3.0 VANIA
12/0232 UTC 19.0S 169.7E T3.0/3.0 VANIA
11/2032 UTC 19.0S 169.6E T3.0/3.0 05P
11/1432 UTC 18.7S 169.1E T2.5/2.5 93P
11/0832 UTC 19.5S 169.0E T2.0/2.0 93P
11/0232 UTC 19.5S 169.7E T2.0/2.0 93P
10/2032 UTC 18.5S 169.8E T1.5/1.5 93P
10/1432 UTC 17.4S 170.4E T1.5/1.5 93P
10/0832 UTC 17.7S 170.0E T1.5/1.5 93P
10/0232 UTC 17.2S 170.0E T1.5/1.5 93P
09/2032 UTC 17.3S 169.7E T1.0/1.0 93P
Ultimo aviso de Meteo France...
Message émis le : mercredi 12 janvier à 14h locales
A 11h00 locales le mercredi 12/01/2011, la dépression tropicale modérée "vania" était centrée par 19,1 sud 169,3 est, entre Erromango et Tanna au Vanuatu.La pression au centre est estimée à 988 hpa.la depression tropicale modérée "vania" se deplace direction ouest-sud-ouest à 5 km/h.les vents moyens sont estimés à 75 km/h (rafales à 110 km/h) dans un rayon de 55 km autour du centre.les vents supérieurs à 60 km/h (rafales à 90 km/h) s‘étendent dans un rayon de 450 km autour du centre.Vania continue à se renforcer. Sa trajectoire va s‘incurver vers le sud-ouest demain. Elle se rapprochera des Loyauté les menaçant directement demain.Le territoire est en pré-alerte.
(http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/4189/46140847.png) (http://img508.imageshack.us/i/46140847.png/)
(http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/9558/jijiji.jpg) (http://img218.imageshack.us/i/jijiji.jpg/)
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
(http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/6306/2011sh051kmsrvis2011011.gif) (http://img26.imageshack.us/i/2011sh051kmsrvis2011011.gif/)
Y como curiosidad y si se me permite la prensa de la zona... ;)
(http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/8703/lnc130111.jpg) (http://img20.imageshack.us/i/lnc130111.jpg/)
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Joder, menudo fichaje hemos hecho en el mercado invernal, eh Torre? 8)
Trabajo encomiable, Hardstyle ;)
Y mientras tanto, Vania up to 60kts-978mb
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Según Fiji, categoría 2 con 50 kts
Va a rondar la categoría 3 al final....
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Nueva Caledonia, como extensión de tierra, no debe entorpecer desarrollo. Es un punto sobre un oceano caliente, el outflow (de tener condiciones arriba favorables) no debe verse afectado. De hecho ya es bastante bueno
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Ala, ya está.
12/2032 UTC 19.6S 168.3E T4.0/4.0 VANIA -- Southwest Pacific
Y ojo porque JTWC en el pronóstico lo profundiza hasta 80kts, camino de New Zeland ;D
Eso sí, posterior debilitamiento debido a su extratropicalización, en el digrama de fase se aprecia la perdida de simetría.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Hombre, tanto como ya está...
El eyewall está a medio camino. El outflow es bueno, pero no termina de mantener un centro definido. Hay bastante aire seco por el medio
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Hombre, tanto como ya está...
Me refería a la estimacion Dvorak, que ya marcaba T4.0.
De todas formas su aspecto ayer era mejor que el de ahora.(unicamente fiándose uno del satélite)
Lo que dice JTWC no da lugar a dudas:
TC 05P IS SLOWLY TRACKING IN A GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN DIRECTION WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC VANIA IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE
VERY EASTERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY SPEED UP AND
RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ET AS A STRONG STORM
FORCE LOW BY TAU 120.
Yo no estoy tan convencido de ese fortalecimiento que comentan(intucición :P)
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65 KT 975 HPA
NADI le otorga categoria II
HURRICANE WARNING 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/0715 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2 SOUTH
167.9 EAST AT 130600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.2S 167.9E AT 130600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
131200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS
FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.4E AT 131800 UTC
AND NEAR 21.6S 167.1E AT 140600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 024.
(http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/6306/2011sh051kmsrvis2011011.gif) (http://img703.imageshack.us/i/2011sh051kmsrvis2011011.gif/)
JTWC
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 130659Z 37 GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 05P, WITH
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT GOOD OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, ABRF, PHFO, AND KNES. TC 05P
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS INDICATING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN 27-29
DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS BUT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 72 AND TRANSITION TO A HIGH-
GALE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN
(http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/5859/imageta.gif) (http://img257.imageshack.us/i/imageta.gif/)
A raíz de las imagenes , parece un sistema extratropical , estructura muy pobre , y pensonalmente no creo que aumente su intensidad.
(http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/418/imagevmy.jpg) (http://img222.imageshack.us/i/imagevmy.jpg/)
Imágenes del radar de ayer 12-01-2001
Pepeavilenho ,gracias por la parte que me toca , espero hacer o intentar colaborar todo lo posible... Y lo que es más importante para mi aprender día a día de todos vosotros. Saludos
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60 KT 975 HPA
(http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/549/2011sh054kmirimg2011011.gif) (http://img291.imageshack.us/i/2011sh054kmirimg2011011.gif/)
Algún registro de precipitación
Airport La Roche - Situado al E de la isla de Dudune : 198 mm 24h
Vao - Lle des Pins - Situado al S New Caledonia : 78 mm 24h
(http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/7613/19676247.png) (http://img72.imageshack.us/i/19676247.png/)
(http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/1040/51494814.png) (http://img163.imageshack.us/i/51494814.png/)
Vania en acción...
(http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/6346/41956229.png) (http://img341.imageshack.us/i/41956229.png/)
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65 KT 970 HPA
Wow... Severe Tropical Cyclone Vania Category 3
HURRICANE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/1319 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH
167.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 167.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.3S 167.2E AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 22.4S 167.1E AT 141200 UTC
(http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/5531/1127620547b2e3b80870e6.gif) (http://img19.imageshack.us/i/1127620547b2e3b80870e6.gif/)
Y por si fuera poco para la zona.... Encima esto...
7.3 earthquake 1755 km (1090 miles) ENE of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, at 3.16am on Friday...Situado el Epicentro en New Caledonia.... :o
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1625Z 13 JAN 2011
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1617Z 13 JAN 2011
COORDINATES - 20.7 SOUTH 168.7 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.3
Numero de Fallecidos oficialmente por Vania = 3
Saludos..
-
Pues la marina le rebaja la intensidad
05PVANIA.55kts-982mb-210S-1672E
Y con razón
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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65 KT 970 HPA
Wow... Severe Tropical Cyclone Vania Category 3
HURRICANE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/1319 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH
167.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 167.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.3S 167.2E AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 22.4S 167.1E AT 141200 UTC
Y por si fuera poco para la zona.... Encima esto...
7.3 earthquake 1755 km (1090 miles) ENE of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, at 3.16am on Friday...Situado el Epicentro en New Caledonia.... :o
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1625Z 13 JAN 2011
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1617Z 13 JAN 2011
COORDINATES - 20.7 SOUTH 168.7 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.3
Numero de Fallecidos oficialmente por Vania = 3
Saludos..
Pues menos mal que pierde intensidad y se aleja hacia el SSW. Miedo me daba que le hubiese dado por irse hacia el W y encima que se le hubiese sumado un maremoto. Lo que le faltaba al ENE Australiano :-X :-X
Saludos.
-
Imágenes de los efectos de VANIA
Port Vila , Vanuatu
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
New Caledonia
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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VANIA azota al SE de Nueva Caledonia, aunque no con mucha intensidad. EL centro está bastante distorsionado en base a un aptrón el altura nada favorable, con cizalladura cercana a 20kt
Además, se aproxima a aguas no-tropicales. Una transición es lo más factible. Veremos en que estado llega a Nueva Zelanda
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Pues ojito con Vania que puede dar algo más de guerra.
Según los DG's del GFS no perderá simetría hasta dentro de 48-60 horas.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Aspecto actual.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Veremos, yo creo que fortalecerse no lo va a hacer, pero venirse abajo tampoco.
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Para que hablaré.
Debilitamiento rápido.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE WEST
OF TC 05P CAUSING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT. TC 05P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ULTIMATELY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY ACT TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ET TRANSITION
Asi que poca vida le queda.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
40 kts.
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VANIA es historia tropical. El JTWC acaba de emitir el último parte sobre el ciclón
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)