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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: HurricaneMex' en Martes 16 Agosto 2011 14:54:15 pm
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Modelos
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Ojito a este sistema, que en las últimas animaciones del SAT, está tendiendo a concentrar la convección cada vez más en torno al centro, con buenos topes nubosos y condiciones cada vez mejores. No me extrañaría tener nombrado a GREG en 24 horas. :o
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Ya está como DT
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
;)
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep072011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108161833
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SEVEN, EP, E, , , , , 07, 2011, DB, O, 2011081518, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, EP072011
En proceso de Depresión...
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7ª Depresión en el EPAC
07ESEVEN.25kts-1006mb-131N-978W
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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CONDICIONES FAVORABLES APARTIR DE 48 HRS PERMITIRÁN QUE GANE FUERZA HASTA LA CAT. DE HURACÁN.
POR EL MOMENTO CIZALLADURA DE 15 KT ESTA AFECTANDO LA ZONA ESTE DEL SISTEMA.
8)
INIT 16/2100Z 13.8N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 15.6N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 16.4N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 20.0N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
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GREG va que se las pira, HurricaneMex'. Tropical Storm GREG 35Kts - 1004 Mb
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GREG IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 30C...AND A RELATIVELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK GRADUALLY LOWER BUT REMAIN ABOVE 26C. THESE CONDITIONS
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION
Pues en ello está
07EGREG.45kts-1000mb-164N-1034W
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Como comenta el NHC, rápida intensificación. GREG sube a 55 Kts - 994 mb. Al paso que va, veremos si mañana no nos despertamos con un Cat.1 ::)
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Como comenta el NHC, rápida intensificación. GREG sube a 55 Kts - 994 mb. Al paso que va, veremos si mañana no nos despertamos con un Cat.1 ::)
::)
...GREG BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 17
Location: 17.5°N 108.3°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
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70 Nudos.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 180838
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
200 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011
GREG HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED WITH AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT
EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. A TRMM PASS AT 0436 UTC
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE IN THE MID-LEVELS BUT THIS FEATURE WAS
OBSCURED IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS GREG REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C AND
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 24 HOURS...
THE HURRICANE WILL TRACK OVER COOL WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING...AND GREG
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OVER 23C WATERS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GREG CONTINUES TO RACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KT DIRECTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL CAUSE GREG TO SLOW DOWN BUT REMAIN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 18.0N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.8N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 19.0N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 19.0N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 19.0N 121.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 19.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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GREG pasando sobre el archipiélago de Revillagigedo (Socorro)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Parece que intenta mostrar ojo
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Up
07EGREG.75kts-980mb-183N-1108W
THERE IS A OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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GREG pierde el estatus de Huracán. Sigue su curso normal
07EGREG.60kts-989mb-191N-1153W
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Penúltimo aviso sobre GREG, moviéndose como Depresión
...GREG FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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...GREG BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)