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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Atlántico => Mensaje iniciado por: alvaroliver en Martes 21 Agosto 2012 14:23:51 pm
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Hace pocos días se ha formado un nuevo Invest (96L) en las estribaciones de las islas de Cabo Verde, y ya tiene un 60% de probabilidades de convertirse en un ciclón tropical en las próximas 48h
UN SISTEMA BIEN DEFINIDO DE BAJAS PRESIONES ASOCIADAS A UNA ONDA TROPICAL SE LOCALIZA A UNAS 425 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE.
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS CONTINUARÁN A DAR MUESTRAS DE ORGANIZACIÓN...
Y UNA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL PODRÍA FORMARSE EN UN DÍA O DOS.
ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA ALTA PROBABILIDAD ... 60 POR CIENTO ... DE SER UN CICLÓN TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A UNOS 15
MPH.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Buena pinta.... bicharraco en ciernes:
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/vis-l-7.jpg)
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/vis-animated-2.gif)
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Up to 90%
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY AS
THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Desarrollo supeditado a ISAAC.
La logica dice que no entre en el Caribe, y se desvia en un primer momento, a aguas abiertas del Atlántico
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Up 100%
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 725 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Up 100%
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
:P
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/vis-animated-5.gif)
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La Marina lo upgradea a 10L
10LTEN.30kts-1007mb-122N-357W.100pc.jpg
Pd y ACTF idem, renumber:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208221225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/20120822.jpg)
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Va bastante rápida. Podemos tener a JOYCE a primeras horas de la noche. Tal como comenta Torre, podría virar antes hacia el NW y quien sabe, seguir incluso la estela de GORDON. Habrá que mirar modelos. ::)
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Va bastante rápida. Podemos tener a JOYCE a primeras horas de la noche. Tal como comenta Torre, podría virar antes hacia el NW y quien sabe, seguir incluso la estela de GORDON. Habrá que mirar modelos. ::)
Si de momento los modelos tienen unanimidad en mover el ciclón entre el WNW y el NW por lo que evitaría las islas del Caribe y recurvaría sobre mar abierto.
Saludos 8)
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A expensas de ISAAC
THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH THE
DEPRESSION BECOMES INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTERACTIONS WITH EITHER WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND A POSSIBLE HALT IN
INTENSIFICATION
Lo típico, el outflow por arriba de ISAAC más la fluctuacion de las altas de Bermuda que cuela bajas en altura pueden hacer aumentar la cizalladura de lo que viene detrás
Veremos
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AL, 10, 2012082312, , BEST, 0, 149N, 416W, 35, 1006, TS
Pd: me explico... vientos de 35kt significa que sube a Tormenta Tropical y toca... JOYCE. ;)
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/vis-animated-6.gif)
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Oficialmente tenemos a JOYCE.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM JOYCE...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 42.2W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Saludos 8)
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Cito un dato interesante del Nhc :
THIS TIES THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE TENTH NAMED TROPICAL
STORM OF A SEASON. IN 2005...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMED ON 22
AUGUST AND IN 1995 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMED ON THIS DATE.
Adjunto la trayectoria prevista.
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Viendo la trayectoria que postea Sagrajeño, ahora comprendo lo que ponía el modelo GFS, a medio-largo plazo, cómo emergía un "bicho" tropical al WSW de las Azores. Ojo a los "recurves" de última hora, no vaya a seguir la misma ruta que GORDON. :P
Saludos.
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 240848
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTANT FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED INHIBITING
INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. BOTH TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN. INDEED...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...INDICATE THAT JOYCE
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...JOYCE COULD
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
DISCONTINUED.
THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM THE GOES-EAST
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THIS ALLOWS FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT
OF THE MOTION OF JOYCE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. JOYCE
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 16.9N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.8N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.2N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 21.0N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 22.8N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.5N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 36.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Joyce se convierte en una baja remanente. Bye bye Joyce. :'(
000
WTNT35 KNHC 241433
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012
...JOYCE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 46.2W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOYCE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE
REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2
WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST ON
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT THE REMNANT LOW COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY
TIME.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
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THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BERG