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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Parungo en Viernes 04 Septiembre 2009 10:09:02 am
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Nuevo Invest en el Pacífico Este... I96E. Futura LINDA...
Sin duda el año de esta cuenca...
-ATCF:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962009.invest
EP, 96, 2009090406, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1134W, 20, 1010, DB
- SHIPS:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962009 09/04/09 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 47 58 62 63 60 61 60
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 47 58 62 63 60 61 60
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 40 48 55 56 53 49
SHEAR (KT) 20 13 11 9 6 4 3 5 4 10 18 15 17
SHEAR DIR 73 72 62 72 88 75 93 74 203 249 248 272 265
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5
LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.0 118.7 120.3 122.0 123.5 124.9 126.3 127.6 128.4
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 46 45 42 47 50 35 42 41 39 29 27 15 32
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confio en que llegue a TD, y por que no a categoria 1.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
un saludo avergonzado
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Desarrollo lento del sistema... y para SHIPS TD...
- ATCF:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962009.invest
EP, 96, 2009090518, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1193W, 25, 1009, DB,
- SHIPS:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962009 09/05/09 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 49 53 55 57 57 50
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 49 53 55 57 57 50
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 36 34 32 30 29 28
SHEAR (KT) 11 10 6 5 4 9 15 21 15 18 16 22 18
SHEAR DIR 55 39 29 32 332 275 257 267 288 273 271 243 243
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.7
- Por cierto, ex-KEVIN en las cercanias...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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nivel 2 de desarrollo, es decir, 30-50% de chance.
no me deja copiar y pegar el portatil... :crazy:
a ver si se soluciona el problema este, me gustaria copiar el texto entero, y no solo una frase... >:(
un saludo avergonzado
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THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
un saludo avergonzado
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15ª Depresión Tropical de la temporada. No hay que esperar mucho de ella
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR
SST solo marginalmente cálido, con débil a moderada cizalladura
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 15.5N 125.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 15.8N 126.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 16.2N 128.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 16.9N 129.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 18.5N 131.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 23.5N 134.5W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/070832.shtml
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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13ª Tormenta de la temporada. Ha pegado un buen repunte, sube a 1000mb-45kt, en base a convección intensa en una pequeña parte del LLCC
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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El NHC se muestra generoso. La intensidad la situan en 50kt
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING...WITH ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAVING IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
Incluso dicen que puede que la intensidad sea generosa, debido a la aparición del EYE-LIKE FEATURE en el visible. Una imitación a ojo, se observa en la imagen del post anterior
Muy claro tienen que tener que alcance fuerza de huracán, porque se enfrenta a una buena masa de aire seco y estable
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 15.5N 127.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 15.6N 127.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 17.2N 130.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/072034.shtml
8)
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el señor avila ha hablado.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 15.2N 128.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 15.4N 128.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
bajan las previsiones...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
veis a esta cuenca llegando al alfabeto griego?.... :cold:
un saludo avergonzado
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.5N 128.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.7N 128.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 17.8N 130.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 24.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
se la cargan en un plis-plas.
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT THE SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED OVER
THE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED AND CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MORE SYMMETRIC. BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO
A SMALL AREA ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. IF FACT...THE
SHIPS MODEL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SOON AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR FORECAST LINDA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.
pues eso...que los 50kT son solo en una parte del sistema, y tiene 12 horas para desarrollarse antes de que la cizalladura aumente y/o la tª del agua disminuya.
un saludo avergonzado
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cuidadin din din!!!!
Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090834
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009
THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN T3.5 OR 55 KT...WHICH IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LINDA
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT QUITE
EXPANSIVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER.
DESPITE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE PREDICTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS
BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH BRING THE
CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
THEREAFTER...LINDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AS IT
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A MORE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW LINDA TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS
TURNING LINDA WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5 KEEPS LINDA ON A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND BAMS
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
IT SEEMS THAT NINES MUST BE WILD THIS MORNING...AS THIS HAPPENS TO
BE THE 9TH ADVISORY ON LINDA AT 0900 UTC ON 9/9/09.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.8N 128.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.5N 128.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.2N 132.1W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
estas próximas 24 horas son cruciales para su desarrollo.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
un saludo avergonzado
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Y tan cruciales. Para mí, que a pesar de la masa de aire seco que tiene delante al WSW, se ha fortalecido algo en las últimas horas. Veremos esta tarde si se confirma este repunte.
Saludos. ;)
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el señor ávila tira la casa por la ventana...
destaco en negrita...
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009
LINDA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE DATA. THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...WITH A
RING OF CONVECTION ON MICROWAVE DATA. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...AND BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
START AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
96 HOURS OR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT DISSIPATES LINDA BEYOND
72 HOURS.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF LINDA AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE.
THE SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN LARGER THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND
48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.7N 129.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 132.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1800Z 24.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
le quedan 12-24 horas para sacar 5 nudos....
un saludo avergonzado
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...LINDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
- LINDA ha conseguido el status de Huracán, al organizarse mejor y presentar un ojo definido. Por tanto 70kt de intensidad de vientos... pero por poco tiempo... cizalladura de 20kt de aquí al final del pronóstico y SST de 27ºC, provocarán que LINDA quede como baja de aquí a 96 horas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 17.1N 129.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 20.2N 131.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 21.2N 132.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 22.5N 133.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 23.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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Pues de momento, Linda resiste, a duras penas pero resiste. Y pensar de que nadie daba un duro por ella y ha conseguido llegar a Huracán cat.1 ::)
Ya, a partir de mañana, se espera un progresivo deterioro de las condiciones para la vida de Linda. No hay nada más que ver el modelo en WV ó los mapas de cizalladura.
Esto es lo que dice el último parte del NHC:
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 101437
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2009
...LINDA A LITTLE STRONGER...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1340 MILES
...2160 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LINDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.4N 130.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
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baja a TT con 55 nudos
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 19.9N 130.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 20.8N 131.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 22.1N 132.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0000Z 22.5N 133.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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LINDA está al borde de la extinción. Mantiene 40kt en el último parte, aunque como el propio NHC dice...
SSTS OF 25C...SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRY
ENVIRONMENT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT RESURGANCE UNLIKELY...AND UNLESS
THIS OCCURS LINDA WILL BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING
SST de 25ºC, cizalladura de componente S, y ambiente de aire seco, hacen que cualquier resurgimiento sea poco probable, y a menos que esto ocurra, LINDA será declarada como Baja Remanente esta noche
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/111434.shtml
La convección se ha volatilizado en menos de 24 horas
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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bastante dió de si la pobre...
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 112042
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009
LINDA CONTINUES AS A VIGOROUS BUT CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION...AND
A FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TERMINATION OF
ADVISORIES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z CAUGHT JUST ENOUGH OF THE
CIRCULATION FOR ME TO PRESUME THAT SOME TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
REMAIN...BUT WITHOUT ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST LONG.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MOTION HAS SWUNG OVER A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT...OR ABOUT 310/5...AS LINDA RESPONDS TO THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LESS EMPHATIC ON THE
NORTHWARD TURN DISCUSSED EARLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS
AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE BODY OF GUIDANCE
THAT IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 20.7N 131.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 21.1N 131.9W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 12/1800Z 21.4N 132.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 13/0600Z 21.6N 133.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1800Z 21.7N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
avergonzado
-
Una imagen vale más que mil palabras
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Todo el LLCC al aire, limpico de convección. El próximo parte, vigésimo, será el último
8)
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El NHC emitió con ese comentado vigésimo parte, el último sobre la Depresión. LINDA es historia tropical
8)