Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Martes 26 Mayo 2015 12:21:50 pm
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6380/two_pac_2d1_vwm6.png)
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9308/73.track.current_fso3.png)
Publicado por: Sudoku en Miércoles 27 Mayo 2015 12:07:40 pm
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1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Pasch
Publicado por: Sudoku en Miércoles 27 Mayo 2015 15:01:45 pm
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1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Roberts/Brown
Publicado por: Sudoku en Miércoles 27 Mayo 2015 20:02:53 pm
Lanzada la alerta por formación tropical por parte de la Marina. Código ROJO.
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1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Brown/Roberts
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Jueves 28 Mayo 2015 11:23:44 am
Relatively low shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures
should support intensification during the next 3 days or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 11.0N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3148/1_pcb0.gif)
Iremos vigilándola pues.
Publicado por: Sudoku en Jueves 28 Mayo 2015 19:24:39 pm
Publicado por: Sudoku en Viernes 29 Mayo 2015 14:37:45 pm
ANDRES a punto de alcanzar la Categoría 1 con 60kts-994mb, aunque según las estimaciones de ADT ya lo ha conseguido con creces. :o
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.5mb/ 72.2kt
Publicado por: Sudoku en Viernes 29 Mayo 2015 23:01:13 pm
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 30 Mayo 2015 14:48:51 pm
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 30 Mayo 2015 18:59:11 pm
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Domingo 31 Mayo 2015 15:45:22 pm
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3318/20150531.1207.f16.x.composite.01EANDRES.90kts_968mb_154N_1178W.78pc_miu9.jpg)
Hay algo de cizalladura y aire seco en el camino.... y su movimiento hacia el ONO acarrera SST en descenso.... Poca vida le queda ya. :'(
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Lunes 01 Junio 2015 00:11:46 am
110kts-952mb
Sorpresón!!!! :laleche:
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8171/rgb_lalo_animated_gsa1.gif)
Y cuidado que ADT se va a 120 nudos..... atentos estaremos....
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Lunes 01 Junio 2015 10:47:35 am
125kts-938mb
Pues nada, categoría 4 holgadamente para Andres.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4493/20150601.0330.f18.x.composite.01EANDRES.120kts_943mb_153N_1190W.48pc_kso6.jpg)
The hurricane is exhibiting characteristics of an annular hurricane
with a well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye, a symmetric mass of deep
convection, and a lack of outer banding features.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1666/rb_lalo_animated_dto2.gif)
Y los números de Dvorak que se están yendo a 130 nudos.
IMPRESIONANTE ANDRES.
Publicado por: Pepeavilenho en Miércoles 03 Junio 2015 14:53:09 pm
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4870/20150603.1151.gpm.x.composite.01EANDRES.60kts_990mb_190N_1247W.33pc_dmd4.jpg)
Impresionante el primer sistema de la temporada en la cuenca del EPAC, sin duda, preludio de lo que nos espera este año por aquí.
Saludos.