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Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales / Re:Huracán Cat.2 LESLIE (13-L. Cabo Verde - M.D.R. - Atlántico Norte)
« Último mensaje por Pepeavilenho en Ayer a las 08:38:42 »90kts-972mb
Creo que ahí se va a mantener, la Cat.3 le queda muy grande.
While the interpolated intensity guidance is a bit lower, the raw
model output of all four of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-A/B,
HMON, HWRF) show Leslie briefly becoming a major hurricane in 12 h.
Because the raw model output from these intensity aids has been
outperforming the interpolated guidance over the past day, the NHC
intensity forecast will now show a 100 kt peak tomorrow morning.
However, this peak is likely to be short-lived, as strong
upper-level northerly flow, via outflow from Milton and Invest 93L,
will soon overtake the hurricane, likely leading to rapid weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 22.6N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
Ahí se va a quedar.
Creo que ahí se va a mantener, la Cat.3 le queda muy grande.
While the interpolated intensity guidance is a bit lower, the raw
model output of all four of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-A/B,
HMON, HWRF) show Leslie briefly becoming a major hurricane in 12 h.
Because the raw model output from these intensity aids has been
outperforming the interpolated guidance over the past day, the NHC
intensity forecast will now show a 100 kt peak tomorrow morning.
However, this peak is likely to be short-lived, as strong
upper-level northerly flow, via outflow from Milton and Invest 93L,
will soon overtake the hurricane, likely leading to rapid weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 22.6N 49.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
Ahí se va a quedar.
