000
WTNT32 KNHC 290841
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 9.4N 26.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 9.8N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 10.7N 30.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 11.9N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.1N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 15.0N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 16.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 18.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
000
WTNT42 KNHC 300852
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH
A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW SITUATED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE 06Z DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.5/35 KT...AND ON
THIS BASIS THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
STRUCTURE OF KATIA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15-20 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO...AND AFTER THAT TIME STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AS WELL. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
INCLUDES THE HFIP INTENSITY AIDS.
A TIMELY AMSR-E PASS FROM 0326Z WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WAS A BIT NORTH
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15...AS
KATIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT THERE ARE SOME FORWARD SPEED
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ON THE FAST SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER. FOR THIS
CYCLE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...
AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE NHC FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR OR A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 11.8N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.5N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 14.4N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 15.3N 43.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 17.0N 49.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 18.5N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Dejara unas espectaculares imagenes sobre el Atlantico medio.
Recomiendo el CIMSS Blog.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011
...KATIA ALMOST A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 42.6W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
Convección profundizándose en torno al centro de Katia. Topes cada vez más fríos alrededor del LCC.
kATIA para "mi" ya es un Huracán Cat.1 en toda regla. :-*
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011
KATIA HA TOMADO UNA APARIENCIA DE CICLÓN CIZALLADO. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO SE HA DESPLAZADO AL OESTE DE LA CONVECCIÓN. PARTE DE LAS BANDAS SE HAN DISIPADO Y AHORA LA CONVECCIÓN SE RESTRINGE AL NE DEL SISTEMA.
EL SHEAR DEL CIMMS INDICA CIZALLADURA DEL SW DE UNOS 15 KT ACTUALMENTE SOBRE KATIA. LA ULL AL NW DE KATIA ES LA RESPONSABLE DEL SHEAR, EN 24-36 HORAS LA BAJA DEBE DEJAR DE INFLUIR SOBRE KATIA POR LO QUE DEBE VOLVER A FORTALECERCE.
KATIA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL W A 16 KT. SE ESPERA QUE DISMINUYA Y GIRE AL NW ACERCÁNDOSE A UNA VAGUADA EN LA DORSAL SUBTROPICAL. EL GFS...ECMWF...Y HFIP ESTAN DE ACUERDO PARA LOS TRES PRIMEROS DÍAS. MAS ADELANTE HAY MAS INCERTIDUMBRE YA QUE LA SEPARACIÓN DE LOS MODELOS SE INCREMENTA. ALGUNOS MODELOS SUGIEREN UN GIRO AL OESTE YA QUE LA DORSAL SE REHARÁ AL NORTE DE KATIA... MIENTRAS OTROS SUGIEREN QUE LA VAGUADA PERSISTIRÁ... LLEVANDO EL CICLÓN MAS AL NORTE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 16.1N 49.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.8N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.7N 54.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 56.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 21.6N 59.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 23.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 25.5N 65.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2011
LA DEFINICIÓN CONVECTIVA DE KATIA HA MEJORADO ESTA MAÑANA DADAS LAS IMAGENES DEL SATÉLITE TANTO VISIBLES COMO DE MICROONDAS QUE INDICAN LA POSIBLE FORMACIÓN DEL OJO. GRACIAS A LA MEJORÍA DE LA ESTRUCTURA LOS ESTIMADOS DE LA TÉCNICA DVORAK SUBEN A 4.0...O 65 KT...COMO LO HACE EL ESTIMADO DEL CIMSS AMSU. ASÍ KATIA HA REOBTENIDO LA CATEGORÍA DE HURACÁN.
EL HURACÁN SE MUEVE AL WNW A UNOS 12 KT... YA QUE ESTÁ SIENDO ADVECTADO POR LA PERIFERIA SUROESTE DE LA DORSAL SOBTROPICAL. KATIA SE MOVERÁ AL WNW O NW POR LOS PRÓXIMOS DÍAS CON UNA VELOCIDAD ALGO MENOR. TODOS LOS MODELOS... CON LA EXCEPCIÓN DEL UKMET QUE DA UNA SOLUCIÓN MUCHO MAS EQUATORIAL... LO MUEVEN RÁPIDO AL NORTE Y NORESTE DESPUÉS GRACIAS A UNA VAGUADA QUE SALDRÁ DE LA COSTA ESTE. EL PRONÓSTICO ES LA MEDIA DE LOS MODELOS EXCEPTO EL UKMET.
A PESAR DE SER HURACÁN DE NUEVO...KATIA ENCUENTA UN AMBIENTE RELATIVAMENTE HOSTIL CON SHEAR DE 15-20 KT DEL SW POR LO MENOS PARA UNO O DOS DÍAS. DESPUÉS DE 48 HORAS...EL SHEAR DEBE DISMINUIR ...PERO LA TERMODINAMICA NO SERÁ LA IDEAL CON BAJAS HUMEDADES Y AMBIENTE MAS ESTABLE. SE VE UN INCREMENTO DE LA TEMPERATURA EN NIVELES ALTOS SEGÚN LOS MODELOS ESTADÍSTICOS SHIPS/LGEM... NO OBSTANTE... PUEDE SER FALSO... COMO EL GFS VE UN VÓRTICE MUY FUERTE ES POSIBLE QUE ESTO SEA LA CAUSA MAS ALLÁ QUE EL AMBIENTE. ASÍ ES POSIBLE QUE LOS PRONÓSTICOS DEL SHIPS/LGEM SEAN MUY BAJOS PARA 3-5 DÍAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 17.5N 52.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.6N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 56.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 21.7N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
000
WTNT42 KNHC 032052
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2011
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE NOW
T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5/3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON THE STRUCTURE
NOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT KATIA HAS
WEAKENED SOME AND AGAIN IS A TROPICAL STORM. FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY BY 5 TO 10 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
THIS FACT WILL ONLY BE MORE APPARENT THAN USUAL SINCE THE INTENSITY
WOULD BE OSCILLATING AROUND THE 65-KT HURRICANE THRESHOLD.
IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THE DIVERGENCE ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND
THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD HAVE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
NORMALLY RELIABLE...SWUNG FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE...SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT
TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT WE WOULD
RATHER SEE SOME STABILITY IN THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING A LARGER
SHIFT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO COMPLEX. KATIA HAS
NOT BEEN STRENGTHENING AS ANTICIPATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO
NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND KATIA BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER
THAT TIME DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN U.S.
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DO NOT
STRENGTHEN KATIA BEYOND CATEGORY 1 STATUS WHEREAS THE GFDL AND HWRF
STILL SHOW THE STORM REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 19.9N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.7N 58.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 21.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 23.1N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 24.3N 63.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 66.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 31.5N 70.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Echando un güeyu a los modelos, parece claro que KATIA será major una vez supere el NE de Sotavento, y que la aparición y estancamiento de la 13L en el GOM, aumenta las posibilidades de que EE.UU se vea afectada (no solo por Bermuda), por el impacto de este la propia KATIA
Veremos, porque ahora mismo, la costa atlántica de Florida o Georgia, deberían estar un 5% más intranquila que ayer ;D
:)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
KATIA ronda la categoría de major...
Ya es Categoría 3 :yeah: :yeah:
100 kts-185.2 km/h y 959 mb
AL, 12, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 248N, 634W, 100 kts, 959 mb , HU
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Saludosss ;)
La marina, por ejemplo ;D
12L.KATIA.100kts.959mb.24.8N.63.4W
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011
...KATIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 63.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
Sip, desciende de categoría
A
TIMELY AMSU-B IMAGE FROM 0544 UTC INDICATED A DOUBLE EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SUGGESTING THAT KATIA IS AGAIN IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
Otro ERC en marcha
Con esa presion ya es categoria 2 no?????
ahh claro..es que por la presion es cat 2 y por los vientos cat 1..en ese caso como se considera???Con esa presion ya es categoria 2 no?????
No tiene porqué. La Cat. 1 va de los 64 kts. a los 82 kts. y KATIA tiene 75 kts.
Ver: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escala_de_huracanes_de_Saffir-Simpson
Saludos. ;)
Presión y vientos están relacionados, pero no son infalibles
Vamos, que puede haber presiones de Cat. 3, pero vientos de Cat. 2
O Cat. 2 en Cat. 1
ahh claro..es que por la presion es cat 2 y por los vientos cat 1..en ese caso como se considera???Con esa presion ya es categoria 2 no?????
No tiene porqué. La Cat. 1 va de los 64 kts. a los 82 kts. y KATIA tiene 75 kts.
Ver: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escala_de_huracanes_de_Saffir-Simpson
Saludos. ;)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011
...KATIA A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 62.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011
A DESPECHO DE LA ALTA LATITUD... KATIA HA MANTENIDO UN GRAN OJO RASGADO EN LAS IMAGENES VISIBLES Y DE MICROONDAS. LA INTENSIDAD INICIAL SE MANTIENE EN 75 KT
KATIA SE MOVERÁ SOBRE AGUAS DE MENOS DE 22C EN 12 HORAS... Y EL CICLÓN SE CONVERTIRÁ EN EXTRATROPICAL EN ESE MOMENTO. NO OBSTANTE... LA GRAN CIRCULACIÓN DE DE KATIA SE ESPERA QUE TRANSPORTE AIRE CÁLIDO E INESTABLE DE MUCHO MAS AL SUR DE LOS 40N DE LATITUD AL NORTE AL SEMICIRCULO ESTE DEL CICLÓN... LO QUE PUEDE AYUDAR A MANTENER LA CONVECCIÓN MAS TIEMPO QUE LO USUAL PARA UN SISTEMA EN ESAS ALTAS LATITUDES.
EL GRAN SISTEMA EXTRATROPICAL EN SE CONVERTIRÁ KATIA SE ESPERA QUE CONTENGA VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CUANDO SE APROXIME A LA ISLAS BRITANICAS EN 3 DÍAS. INTERESES EN LAS ISLAS BRITANICAS, SUS ALREDEDORES Y EL NORTE DE EUROPA DEBERÁN PRESTAR ATENCIÓN Y SEGUIR LOS PARTES EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA DEL UKMET EN EL SITIO
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/.
NO SE DA PONE EL PUNTO DE LAS 96 HORAS EN EL PRONÓSTICO YA QUE ESTE HA SIDO PROVEÍDO POR UN SOFTWARE QUE NO DÁ PUNTOS MAS ALLÁ DE DE LOS 0º DE LONGITUD (AL ESTE DEL MERIDIANO 0)