Lo que si ven ECMWF y GFS es una DT - TT pegada a Venezuela para después ir camino a Jamaica donde se extratropicalizaría :o para ser absorbida por un megafrente que barrería la costa este de USA, todo esto mas menos 7-10 días.
Saludos 8)
Su aspecto es imponente. Si entra al caribe y va con rumbo a Jamaica es muy posible que se extratropicalize o sea absorvida por un frente frío que se encuentra en estos momentos en el Norte de México. Dicho frente frío es algo potente y pudiera ser más fuerte que el sistema tropical cuando choquen :o :o :o Aunque son solo modelos a largo plazo, ya que el sistema ni siquiera se ha desarrollado 8)
Ya tenemos lanzado el Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, es decir, alerta de formación tropical por parte de la marina ;D
mmm.....tal vez una circulacion excesivamente amplia haga que el desarrollo se demora unas cuantas horas (24 como mucho le doy :P :P)
Si es que está en latitud 8N :-X
30kts-1006mb
a ver si viene ya la 20ª Depresion atlántica del 2010 8)
viendo la última imagen del SAT en Rainbow, ya tiene pinta de D.T.O directamente Tormeta Tropical.....
¿Como le dan nombre a Nicole y no le dan nombre YA a este "mostruito"?
¿Como le dan nombre a Nicole y no le dan nombre YA a este "mostruito"?
Buena pregunta para STEWART ;D
Por cierto, ya el RECON ha encontrado vientos de 40KT y circulación cerrada, solo falta el mensaje del VORTEX para comenzar los avisos de la TT TOMAS.
Saludos 8)
El FIREFOX se me había colgado y ni p`alante ni p`atras.:-\
Como no gire hacia el N en unos días, se convertira en una potencial amenaza :-X :-X :-X :-X
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301501
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS
THIS MORNING FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH SEVERAL 64-66 KT RELIABLE SFMR
WINDS. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL INDICATED
A SURFACE WIND OF 72 KT. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LESSER SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF AROUND 66
KT. A COMBINATION OF THIS DATA EASILY SUPPORTS A 65-KT HURRICANE...
AND TOMAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED ACCORDINGLY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE LATEST RECON FIX
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
UPPER-AIR DATA FROM SAN JUAN REVEALED 30-METER 500 MB HEIGHT
INCREASES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THAT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS HAS STARTED AS THE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS CAPTURED HURRICANE SHARY LIFTS RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES FOR THE
NEXT 72-96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE TOMAS ON A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A
BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. WEST
COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAYS
2-3 AND THEN DIG MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT...AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY DAY 5. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
AND A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO
SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...
AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
TOMAS HAS DEVELOPED A 30-40 NMI DIAMETER EYE NOTED IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL
ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. A COMBINATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEP WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...WESTERLY 300 MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND INDUCE SOME
SHEAR ON TOMAS...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
USUALLY WITH WESTERLY SHEAR COMES DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR...AND THIS
INHIBITING FACTOR WAS CLEARLY INDICATED IN UPPER-AIR DATA WEST OF
65W LONGITUDE THIS MORNING. BY 72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...AND A INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS...WHICH MAKES A TOMAS A MAJOR HURRICANE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 13.3N 60.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 13.8N 62.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 14.4N 64.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 14.8N 67.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.2N 69.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.6N 72.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 16.0N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 75.0W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
El diámetro del ojo es gigantesco para ser un Huracán Cat. 1
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!
The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles.
Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.
Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10.
Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.
Un Sr. Major en ciernes...
En un plazo de 120 horas, una vaguada en niveles medios procedente de la Costa Oeste, que se situará en un plao de 48-72 horas en la zona central de EEUU, continuará su camino hacia el Sur directo al Golfo de Mexico.
Esto traerá consigo la tendencia de que la vaguada vaya erosionando a Tomas en su parte mas occidental, sobre todo su outflow(esta parte de la discusion es la que mas me ha costado traducir, sorry) y un debilitamiento de la corriente subtropical a lo largo del Caribe. Esta situación debería ayudar a Tomas a rebajar su velocidad de desplazamiento e ir desplazando su trayectoria algo más hacia el Norte.
Gracias Pepe.A tí..... ;D
Y no parece que vaya a escapar rápido hacia el N... Podemos tener TOMAS para rato 8)
Y no parece que vaya a escapar rápido hacia el N... Podemos tener TOMAS para rato 8)
Ojalá y no, que parta rápido al NE lo mas débil posible.
Ya Jeff Masters y algunos en su blog mencionan la posibilidad que planteas, y no sería nada gracioso, el CMC ya ve una trayectoria al oeste de Jamaica, pasando sobre Camagüey, en el centro-oriente de Cuba (mas ó menos por donde PALOMA en el 2008 y ya alguno en el blog se saca ESTO (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Cuba_hurricane) del baul de los recuerdos.
Que la similitud de trayectoria en estos momentos es notable.
:cold: :cold: :cold:
Saludos 8)
Jodo, Rayo......pero eso fue en 1932 y ahora en 2010 se está más preparado. :cold: :cold:
De todas formas, todavía la trayectoria es bastante incierta, así como el futuro potencial de TOMAS.
Saludos.
TOMAS está hecho unos zorros. Para mi que el LLCC se está rehubicando o algo así. De hecho...
.21LTOMAS.35kts-1006mb-134N-742W
No se de donde sacó semejante pronostico, el NHC ???
Si, vale, 30kt en 24 horas es una burrada. Pero eso de que la organización resta papeletas para esa RI... No se, la clara empanada mental que está arrastrando el NHC con esta tormenta, no me da mucha confianza en sus pronósticos
Ha sido un placer traducir para ustedes.
El reciente parte intermedio mantiene la intensidad antes mencionada. Un caza huracanes se acerca a la tormenta. La categoría de huracán está muy cerca
Posible que llegue a cat. 2 hoy, desgraciadamente Haití se está llevando otro golpe de la naturaleza.
¡¡Uy, uy, uy.............. :cold: :cold: :-X :-X
El visible muestra el último aliento de TOMAS, con un burstazo sobre el centro