Foro de Tiempo.com
Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Sagrajeño en Miércoles 01 Septiembre 2010 10:24:29 am
-
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009010627
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010083118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942010
EP, 94, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1011W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1022W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010083106, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1034W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010083112, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1051W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1058W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 94, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1066W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 225, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 94, 2010090106, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1073W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
(http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/5391/twoepac.gif) (http://img413.imageshack.us/i/twoepac.gif/)
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
De momento el JTWC no emite el TCFA.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Toca esperar esta vez, aunque no se yo... ::)
-
Cuidado codigo rojo.
(http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/5391/twoepac.gif) (http://img808.imageshack.us/i/twoepac.gif/)
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
Sigue mejorando.
(http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/6306/twoepacr.gif) (http://img638.imageshack.us/i/twoepacr.gif/)
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
-
Lanzada la alerta de formación tropical.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
De formarse TT, toca Georgette
;)
-
El catapún que ha dado en las últimas horas, ha sido....... :cold: :cold: tal como se ve en las animaciones del Visible. En el próximo parte podemos tener a "GEORGETTE" y ojo que parece que ha puesto ruta a Baja California Sur.
Saludos.
-
(http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/5391/twoepac.gif)
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/3931/epac1.gif)
(http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/3498/rblp.jpg)
-
De hecho en el ATCF aprarece como DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL, seguramente confirmado en el próximo parte por el NHC:
EP, 10, 2010090306, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1094W, 30, 1001, TD
-
Imagen del radar ;D ;D
(http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/4192/ep201094satanim.gif) (http://img405.imageshack.us/i/ep201094satanim.gif/)
-
La Marina confirma la depresion tropical , por lo tanto tenemos la depresion tropical 10 E
Visible
(http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/1856/depresiontropical10e.jpg) (http://img85.imageshack.us/i/depresiontropical10e.jpg/)
-
No parece que vaya a adquirir nombre...Al menos eso dicen desde Miami.
ALTHOUGH THE
DEPRESSION COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND ITS
PROJECTED PATH OVER COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS...NONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
-
Pues no parece, no. Aunque la cizalladura es buena, su trayectória hacia W-NW lo lleva hacia aguas marginalmente propicias y hacia un buen paquete de aire seco. La vorticidad tampoco es para tirar cohetes. No creo que pase de DT.
-
Estos sí que están de frenopático... :rcain:
THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF INCREASED BANDING ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...AND 3.0...OR 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
USING THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED WINDS JUST BELOW AND JUST ABOVE
35 KT. WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL IS SEEN EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE WE DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT DOES
INDICATE THAT INTENSITY IS NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUGGEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Yo de verdad.....no entiendo nada :rcain:
-
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010
THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING... :rcain: THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
-
¡Y esa discusión! :mucharisa:
BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...
Esto es peor que los ''ballets'', las ''improvisaciones'' de Bertha, o ''Epsilooong''; todo ello patrocinado por el Sr.Avila.
Afortunadamente para el NHC en el satélite no se ve gran cosa...
8)
edito:el NHC emitió el ultimo parte sobre el sistema esta mañana.... ;)