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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Atlántico => Mensaje iniciado por: hardstyle en Lunes 27 Agosto 2012 12:23:57 pm
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Unanimidad de los modelos en cuanto a su futuro desarrollo, en un principio todo a punta a que seguirá el camino de Isaac.
De momento no disponemos de Invest y ni mucho menos Floater, pero inicio seguimiento independiente al Seguimiento Tropical por su más que probable desarrollo.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/gtwo_atl-11.gif)
De momento su posible trayectoria sería la siguiente
Cabo Verde - MDR - Las Antillas - La Española - Cuba ....
;)
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GFS lo sigue mandando para el Caribe, mientras que el Europeo lo mete de lleno en Bermudas.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-788.gif)
;)
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Sin prisa pero sin pausa ya esta mejorando
2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
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Y tanto que va mejorando. Y que se de prisa, porque desde el continente africano no paran de salir sistemas. :P
UN AMPLIO AREA DE BAJA PRESION ASOCIADO CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL ESTA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 550 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE. LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADO ESTA GRADUALMENTE
ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR...Y SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES SE
TORNEN CONDUCENTES PARA UN DESARROLLO LENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIANA...40 POR
CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS
48 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH.
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Ya tenemos oficialmente al bajo investigación al disturbio 98.L.
98LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-119N-327W
Y su correspondiente Floater ::)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/98L_floater.html
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1055.jpg)
Mucho ojo por su posible y más que probable evolución y desarrollo, los modelos lo desarrollan hasta convertirse en un todo major dirección las Bermudas.
;)
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;D
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/98lmanana29ago.gif)
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Continua mejorando el sistema
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.
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Me parece que la probabilidad de que Leslie (o al menos el duodécimo ciclón tropical de la temporada) nazca a partir de este sistema, es muy elevada. La convección se ha organizado aún más en torno al centro en las últimas horas, aunque todavía le queda tiempo para cerrar la circulación y dejar de ser una onda.
Hay algunas boyas en el Atlántico que podrían entrar dentro de su trayectoria y reportar datos interesantes, ya veremos...
PD: Esta temporada de huracanes en el Atlántico está empezando a apurar el ritmo más de la cuenta diría yo... :P
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Hay que estar atento a este sistema, ya tiene codigo rojo con un 60 % de posibilidades de desarrollo.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
IMMINENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
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(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/98l29agotarde.gif)
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Lanzada ATCF Track
98LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-133N-376W
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/al98201212082918.gif)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-2154.gif)
Grandes diferencias entre el ECMWF y el GFS, mientras que el GFS sigue insistiendo en mandarlo a las Bermudas como un vigoroso y potente major, el Europeo ahora lo aniquila y lo reduce a una simple depresión tropical que seguiría más o menos los pasos de KIRK.
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Poderoso sistema el que se está formando y menudo aspecto presenta a primera hora de la mañana. Sube hasta los 30kts-1007mb-135N-393W. Yo no se porqué da ese pronóstico el Europeo, pero "esto" ya es Depresión Tropical. :-X
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(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/98L30agomanana.gif)
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Evolución prevista, sin grandes aglomeraciones de población de por medio:
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/98Lruta30agomanana.gif)
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Up to 100 %
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Pues eso entre las 4 y 5 de la tarde el Nhc confirmara que este sistema será una nueva depression tropical ( 12 L ).
Un saludo y a disfrutar del seguimiento compañeros.
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Up to 100 %
Pues eso entre las 4 y 5 de la tarde el Nhc confirmara que este sistema será una nueva depression tropical ( 12 L ).
El óxido, el óxido... ;D
A ver, DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 12L en la página ftp del NHC: ;)
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982012_al122012.ren
AL, 12, 2012083012, , BEST, 0, 138N, 426W, 30, 1007, TD
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_RENUMBER_al982012_al122012.ren
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al122012.invest
AL, 12, 2012083012, , BEST, 0, 138N, 426W, 30, 1007, TD
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al122012.invest
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Es una depresión tropical tremendamente organizada. La convección es intensa y cubre completamente el centro, no hay una cizalladura apreciable y el resto de variables son buenas, diría que muy pronto la conoceremos por Leslie, y mucho me temo que este sistemilla va a dar mucho que hablar, se está dando mucha prisa por desarrollarse en las últimas horas... Y las predicciones apuntan a un probable RI inminente. :sherlock:
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Es una depresión tropical tremendamente organizada. La convección es intensa y cubre completamente el centro, no hay una cizalladura apreciable y el resto de variables son buenas, diría que muy pronto la conoceremos por Leslie, y mucho me temo que este sistemilla va a dar mucho que hablar, se está dando mucha prisa por desarrollarse en las últimas horas... Y las predicciones apuntan a un probable RI inminente. :sherlock:
Ya lo es compañero, de hecho el nhc acaba de anunciar hace unos minutos.
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
000
WTNT62 KNHC 301730
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.
SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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LESLIE aumenta de intensidad y las condiciones, tal como comenta Gdvictorm son bastante favorables para una rápida intensificación del sistema. Buenas explosiones convectivas se forman en torno al centro. :cold:
12LLESLIE.40kts-1004mb-142N-445W
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LESLIE aumenta de intensidad y las condiciones, tal como comenta Gdvictorm son bastante favorables para una rápida intensificación del sistema. Buenas explosiones convectivas se forman en torno al centro. :cold:
Pues se tendría que dar mucha prisa Leslie, el aire seco va a comenzar de manera inminente a inyectarse en la circulación, por el resto de las condiciones ningún problema, SST a 29º-30º, buena vorticidad , cizalladura en valores relativamente bajos y marcando unos niveles bastantes elevados de OHC (mejoran a partir de las 36 horas), pero el aire seco que ha dejado atrás Kirk parece ser que también limitarán a Lesie unas 48 horas como mínimo, una vez se libre de el... le pasará lo mismo que a Kirk, se tendría que intensificar... por lo que Bermudas podría tener un serio problema.
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12LLESLIE.40kts-1004mb-142N-445W
AL, 12, 2012083018, , BEST, 0, 142N, 445W, 40, 1004, TS LESLIE
:D
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/vis-animated-15.gif)
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El outflow es bueno, Hard, pero sí es verdad que tiene aire seco por delante; según se tape la convección se podrá prevenir de sus efectos.
Y será Major?...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 302036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012
LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18. LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Leslie es un poco mas fuerte y esta bastante cerca de ser huracan.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 310849
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING LESLIE IS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. THE STORM IS PRODUCING
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS MIGRATED FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT.
LESLIE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 285/14 KT...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO NEARLY VANISH BY DAY 3 AS LESLIE BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. BECAUSE OF THE COLLAPSE IN THE STEERING FLOW...LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BUT SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY DAYS 4
AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
BUT THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT ON DAYS 4 AND
5. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS THEREFORE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT IT IS STILL EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA ON DAY 5.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND LESLIE IS IMPROVING...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM SHOULD HAVE AN OUTFLOW PATTERN
BENEFICIAL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENDS UP A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON DAYS 4
AND 5...HOWEVER. THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAINS A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN ON THOSE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST HEDGES ON THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
MAJORITY OF THESE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...AND INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 15.2N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 16.1N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.4N 52.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.6N 55.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 19.9N 57.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 23.0N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 27.0N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Para el GFS virará hacia el noreste y quedaría unas 48 horas estacionario como un gigantesco sistema en medio del atlántico, el Europeo lo manda rumbo Terranova como un buen Huracán... antes se tendrá que librar del aire seco que sigue estando presente al norte del sistema.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/slp56-4.png)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-lalo-24.jpg)
Los topes más fríos que se han visto en lo que llevamos de temporada por la cuenca atlántica los produce ahora mismo Leslie, parece que viene juguetona ::)
12LLESLIE.55kts-999mb-164N-503W
31/1745 UTC 16.9N 50.2W T3.0/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic
Cizalladura en aumento para las próximas horas, para luego ir disminuyendo en las inmediaciones de Bermudas, y todo a punta a que llegaría muy vivo a Terranova.
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Se intensifica rápidamente e intentando formar su Eyewall a marchas forzadas, a ver si es capaz de reforzarse lo suficiente para aguantar bien el incremento de la cizalla prevista y el aire seco que hay rodeando al sistema por su parte norte-oeste, los modelos actualizan y siguen viendo un potente sistema en plena re-intensificación en las inmediaciones de las Bermudas, SST por dicha zona a 30º-31º, OHC marcando valores moderadamente altos en toda su andadura hasta Bermudas, pero que se incrementarán por la zona de dicha isla, el aire seco ya debería de estar lo suficientemente al W como para que le perjudicará, y una cizalladura por debajo de 10 KT, los del NHC en su ultimo parte comentan esta posibilidad pero tal y como dicen ellos mismos...
.BUT ITS LIKELY SLOW MOTION AT THAT
TIME COULD CAUSE UPWELLING UNDER THE STORM...SO THE NHC FORECAST
WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/rbtop-animated-5.gif)
La cizalladura que le espera sufrir en las próximas horas será superior a los 25 KT y de componente suroeste, por lo que la convección profunda debería de quedar aglutinada al noreste del sistema, y tal vez no se va muy perjudicada por el aire seco pues por ese cuadrante el ambiente no es tan seco.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/slp21-1.png)
Buen seguimiento ;)
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"Na. Esta se ríe del aire seco, de la cizalladura y de tó". 12LLESLIE.60kts-994mb-174N-528W ;D
Aumenta significativamente su fuerza, tal como se ve en las últimas imágenes del SAT. Mientras, su compañero KIRK baja ya a 65 Kts. cuesta abajo y sin frenos. :P
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La cizalladura que le espera sufrir en las próximas horas será superior a los 25 KT
No ha podido resistir el aumento fuerte de la cizalladura y su centro queda totalmente expuesto, ahora solo queda esperar a que baje y pueda recuperarse, pero le va a costar lo suyo...
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/D75D35D4-F504-47BF-BAAB-BAEF79DCD942-89-0000043845418ACA.jpg)
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT...
:(
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(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09022012tarde.gif)
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(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09022012tardeAVN.gif)
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Comienza a generar nuevos pepinazos convectivos en todo su centro ::), muy atentos a lo que prevé el GFS a no muchas horas... todo un posible categoría 4 -5.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/slp52.png)
12LLESLIE.55kts-997mb-214N-609W
02/1145 UTC 21.4N 61.0W T2.0/2.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic
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Previsión para el 7 de Septiembre.
(http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/hwrf/hwrf.2012090212/leslie12l/wind_nest_m.png)
http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/hwrf/hwrf.2012090212/leslie12l/uv900_mslp_p_loop.php
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Menudo pelotón...
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09032012manana.gif)
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Muy conservadores veo yo, tanto a la Navy como al NHC. Le dan un pico máximo de 70 kts. y en un momento dado puede dar el "salto" de categoría. En el Track parece que va directa a Bermudas. :cold: :cold:
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Menudo pelotón...
Hable ud bien... :-*
TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION .... CLOUD CANOPY ...
Y para decir que no hay tanta cizalladura; a ver qué da de sí.
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012
A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF -84C TO -88C HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE MASSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB...PLUS AN ADT ESTIMATE T3.2/49 KT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER...THE
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07 KT. OTHER THAN A FEW WOBBLES
HERE AND THERE...LESLIE HAS REMAINED BASICALLY ON TRACK. OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT LESLIE WILL MOVE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 65W. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON
DAYS 3 AND 4. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACT TO LIFT LESLIE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRLY
TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS
MODELS TVCA AND TV15.
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY INDICATING MORE THAN 20 KT OF
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE OVERDONE DUE TO THE 500 KM RADIUS USED BY THAT MODEL TO COMPUTE
SHEAR. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY ABOUT 15
KT OF SHEAR...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 30 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THESE SHEAR VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...EVEN AN INCREASE IN
TO AROUND 20 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER LESLIE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 50W ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CREATE CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT AT DAY 5 WHERE THE
FORECAST IS HIGHER...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 23.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 24.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 26.1N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.6N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 27.6N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.7N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
-
Su centro plenamente expuesto y toda la convección profunda (topes muy fríos) queda restringida al sureste del sistema. ::)
12LLESLIE.50kts-998mb-241N-628W
20120903 1145 24.1 62.5 T3.0/3.0 12L LESLIE
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1828.jpg)
;)
-
Adjunto el pronostico previsto para la actual Tormenta Tropical Leslie por el GFS & ECMWF.
GFS
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-2422.gif)
ECMWF
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-1216.gif)
;)
-
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslieaHamilton09032012.gif)
Bermuda... ::)
-
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09042012manana.gif)
-
Bastante aire seco al NW, hacia donde se supone que tendría que ir:
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09042012mananaWV.gif)
-
Sigue expuesto al NW, creo:
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09042012mediodia.gif)
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09042012mediodiaWV.gif)
-
Efectivamente Dani ::), el aire seco sigue inyectándose en toda su circulación y haciendo que su LLCC quede expuesto de manera parcial o total, aunque a raíz de las ultimas animaciones que has puesto, se puede observar de manera más o menos clara que el aire seco se esta reduciendo, y su centro comienza levemente a cubrirse nuevamente de convección no muy profunda y quedando la mayor cantidad de actividad tormentosa desplazada a todo el este del sistema, pero esto ya es cosa también de los niveles altos de cizalla que reinan por la zona.
12LLESLIE.55kts-994mb-251N-626W
04/1745 UTC 25.1N 62.6W T2.5/3.0 LESLIE
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/1-90.jpg)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-2210.jpg)
Bonita imagen del canal visible donde se puede observar claramente los efectos nocivos de la cizalladura y del aire seco en un sistema tropical.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/storm_12.gif)
Nueva Inglaterra y Terranova se van a comer un Huracán de cierta entidad :-X, las condiciones ambientales siguen siendo favorables en las inmediaciones de Bermudas, por lo que un RI en la zona por parte de Leslie esta más que asegurado.
;)
-
Tiene un montón de aire seco al W y NW, pero se va creando su zona...
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie090520132WP_manana.gif)
Podría interactuar con Michael a la lara, bueno, más que interactuar, comerselo.
-
Echad un vistazo a las últimas imágenes del SAT en el visible. Sube a 60 Kts. y esta vez parece que ha metido el "turbo". Pobre Bermuda. :o :cold:
-
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/C57409A9-E33F-47C9-800C-EB3684ADC805-1957-0000071D537B0DCB.jpg)
Huracán a la vista Sudoku, sigue el guión previsto ::)
-
Huracán Categoría 1 Leslie
...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT.
Y Dvorak actualiza ::)
DATE | TIME | BASIN | DT | FT | CI | LAT | LON | PRESS | WNDSPD | ID | NAME | PCN | ANALYST
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------
20120905 | 0545 | ATL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 25.4 | 62.9 | 1000 | 45 | 12L | LESLIE | 5 | AS
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------|-----|---------
20120905 | 1145 | ATL | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 25.9 | 62.4 | 994 | 55 | 12L | LESLIE | 3 | EG
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------|-----|---------
20120905 | 1745 | ATL | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 25.8 | 62.5 | 987 | 65 | 12L | LESLIE | 3 | EG
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------|-----|---------
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 25.7N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.8N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 27.2N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.0N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.4N 64.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 10/1200Z 39.5N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART :-X
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-1966.gif)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 051443
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE TO DEVELOP
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT
12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLOWLY
ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR
SO DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH BY 96
HOURS...AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.
LESLIE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HOURS. THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS
COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN LEVEL OFF IN 72-96
HOURS DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SYMPTOMS OF NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CAUSED BY THE GFS MODEL 200 MB
WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS...ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS
GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS STRENGTHENING TREND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.
LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
;)
-
Here We Go, directo Bermudas/Canadá:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 052055
TCDAT2
HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LESLIE HAS EXPANDED BY MORE THAN 100 NMI TO
THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...INDICATING THAT THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED. A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 1700
UTC...BUT A RECENT BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE
EYE. SSMIS AND TRMM MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL EYE HAS DEVELOPED AND A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE COULD
BE UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN
AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.3/72 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/02 KT. LESLIE HAS WOBBLED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THAT
ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY JUST DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE EYE. THE
LATEST GFS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. SINCE THESE TWO MODELS
ARE NOW CONVERGING CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH
LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS. COLD WATER UPWELLING
BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS A
RESULT OF THE GFS MODEL CREATING A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE...WHICH
FURTHER GENERATES SIGNIFICANT 200 MB WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STRONG
HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS
REMAINS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.
LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 25.9N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.1N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 26.8N 63.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 27.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 29.3N 64.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 34.0N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 42.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/rgb-animated.gif)
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/AL1212W5.gif)
-
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/LESLIE09062012WV.gif)
-
La verdad es que el sistema es mucho más grande que Michael, pero le cuesta muchísimo organizarse:
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09062012tarde.gif)
-
Ahí sigue Leslie sin ejoría aparente, cada vez un poquito más al norte:
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslieAVN09072012manana.gif)
-
La mayoría de los modelos no lo pasan de Huracan categoría 1, que es lo que es ahora mismo.
-
00
WTNT32 KNHC 071450
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012
...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 62.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO
60 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A NORTHWARD
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN
SATURDAY.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT LESLIE COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS THIS WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
-
Down to 55 Kt. Afectará a Bermuda el Domingo...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 072030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012
...LESLIE FINALLY ON THE MOVE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 62.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL BE PASSING
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
-
No se si estais decuerdo con esto compañero, Lesbie me esta recordando de alguna forma a Isaac, entre otras cosas porque no acaba de organizarse del todo el sistema.
Eso si, esta siendo un sistema bastante largo.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 080846
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012
LESLIE SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF PERHAPS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE DISPLACED WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER LOCATION. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT MISSIONS LAST
NIGHT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE TIME BEING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS DRY AIR AND
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS...STEADIER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 LESLIE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES WHILE THE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. LESLIE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...
THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT WITH A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THIS REPRESENTS A TREND TOWARD THE LATEST
TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH FOR THIS CYCLE GENERALLY SHOWS MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN LESLIE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRIES TO CUT
OFF EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE NEW NHC TRACK
IS STILL A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND LIES ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 28.1N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 28.9N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 30.3N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 31.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 33.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 38.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 48.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Salvo sorpresa, Lesbie como maximo sera un huracan categoria 2 debil, aun asi lo va a tener bastante complicado, lo mas posible es que vuelva a ser huracan categoria 1.
-
Leslie es mas debil y lo tiene muy complicado para volver a ser huracan categoria 1.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 091734
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AT BERMUDA AS THE CENTER
BEGINS TO EDGE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED
ACCERLERATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LESLIE HAS ALREADY MADE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT BERMUDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA
TODAY...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Sinceramente, los modelos han sobrevalorado bastante la fuerza de este sistema.
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Es básicamente un sistema muy grande, pero con una organización muy pobre... Lo contrario le sucede a Michael, que es un sistema muy organizado y con unos vientos muy por encima del umbral de fuerza de huracán, ahora bien, su tamaño es tan pequeño que basta que se meta en la circulación de Leslie para que esta lo destroce y absorba por completo.
Es muy probable que Leslie se profundice mucho en su proceso de extratropicalización si se cumplen los modelos.
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(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/leslie09092012_tarde.gif)
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Se deshace...
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/Leslie09102012mananaAVN.gif)
En pocas horas se integrará completamente en el Jet como, un par de días más tarde, lo hará Michael.
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en el instituto geografico nacional, pone como seguira siendo tormenta tropical cuando llegue a islandia :crazy: supongo que es un fallo, ya que en esa imagen se ve claramente que se destroza, cosa logica ademas.
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en el instituto geografico nacional, pone como seguira siendo tormenta tropical cuando llegue a islandia :crazy: supongo que es un fallo, ya que en esa imagen se ve claramente que se destroza, cosa logica ademas.
24H 11/1200Z 48.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 55.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 60.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED
Por cierto, te recomiendo el siguiente link www.rae.es/
;)
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Previsión
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Pues según la Marina, esta "cosa destartalada" ha alcanzado de nuevo los 65 Kts. Yo ya no me fío, no vaya a pasar lo mismo que con la depresión tropical nº 14, que todavía el NHC no la ha hecho "oficial".
Saludos.
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Bueno, está extratropicalizándose, es lógico que en ese proceso la baja pase por un proceso de ciclogénesis y se profundice al mismo tiempo que sus características tropicales van desapareciendo.
El NHC no tardará en no querer saber nada más de este sistema. Supongo que lo dejará de seguir en cuanto pase por Terranova.
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Extratropicalizandose:
(http://usuarios.tiempo.com/dani/TROPICAL/LESLIE09112012AVNmanana.gif)
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El NHC sigue haciendo seguimiento del sistema. Está totalmente extratropicalizado, aunque me parece que no van a dejar de seguirlo hasta que deje de afectar a tierras americanas. Creo que si Leslie llega a estar en Europa en vez de en América del Norte, el seguimiento hubiera acabado por su parte hace por lo menos un día...
Se ha profundizado mucho en su transición a extratropical, de hecho genera vientos casi tan fuertes como los que tenía cuando fue huracán. La presión está por los suelos en su centro (968hPa).
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Efectos de Leslie en Terranova.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2012/09/10/nl-hurricane-watch-leslie-910.html
Vientos
11:30am NT: St. John's #YYT: Winds SSW 82, Gusting to 108 km/h. Since ~7:30am we've had sustained winds 80+ & gusts 100+ km/h. #nlwx #Leslie
Llluvia
(http://images.scribblelive.com/2012/9/11/fa7abf45-7f0a-4f95-b008-757d2b226db6_300.jpg)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Pobre coche :rcain:
(http://images.scribblelive.com/2012/9/11/a4802d56-0674-4f8a-9202-29a282edc4c2_300.jpg)
(http://www.cbc.ca/photos/galleries/3047/3047_50493_web_8column.jpg)
(http://www.cbc.ca/photos/galleries/3047/3047_50492_web_8column.jpg)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Leslie ya es oficialmente post-tropical por el NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/111439.shtml?
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.4N 53.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNW OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
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al final paso o no por delante de islandia?