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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Oeste => Mensaje iniciado por: hardstyle en Jueves 26 Julio 2012 21:48:57 pm
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Cada vez tiene más papeletas para se genere otro grande y que podría hacer mucho daño a Luzón, Okinawa o tal vez Taiwan, los modelos no saben muy bien por donde va a tirar, pedo clara unanimidad por la intensa potencia que pudiera llegar a tener.
93WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-121N-1334E.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-460.jpg)
;)
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Lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica y posible efecto "fujiwhara", con uno o más sistemas que podrán desarrollarse en las próximas horas, como suele suceder, se harán la puñeta el uno al otro, o el más dominante sea capaz de engullir al resto.
TCFA
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wp9312.gif)
ABPW10 PGTW 271430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/271430Z-280600ZJUL2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED
FEEDER BANDS THAT HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 271144Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT CLEARLY
OUTLINES THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
HAS WEAKENED AS THE STORM MOTION BECAME IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED BANDING AND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
GFS :-X
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-2098.gif)
93WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-127N-1276E
27/1432 UTC 12.7N 128.0E T1.5/1.5 93W -- West Pacific
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-12.jpg)
;)
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(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-2261.jpg)
Mucha actividad tempestuosa pero la cizalladura del norte en valores moderados.
;)
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Alzada rápidamente a Tormenta Tropical y bautizada con el nombre de SAOALA, los modelos siguen insistiendo en un Tifón de cierta entidad y se confirma que acabará por el momento en Taiwan.
10WSAOALA.35kts-996mb-150N-1256E
28/0832 UTC 15.6N 126.6E T2.0/2.0 SAOLA -- West Pacific
Gigantesco sistema y condiciones ambientales muy favorables para que crezca de manera vertiginosa, tal vez el que sea tan grande le traiga problemas en su organización y también su posible encontronazo con Luzón, pero por el momento no parece que toque de manera directa a Filipinas.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-576.jpg)
;)
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El servicio Meteorológico de Filipinas nombra también con el nombre de GENER.
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html
Tracks oficiales por las diferentes agencias oficiales que hacen seguimiento sobre dicha Tormenta Tropical.
JTWC
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wp1012.gif)
PAGASA- Filipinas
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/track-1.gif)
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/fcst/bulletin.pdf
JMA - Japón
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/1209-00.png)
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1209l.html
;)
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El Europeo finalmente cede en su pronostico y se une al GFS en cuanto al Track a seguir por Soala, pero siguen habiendo una fuerte discrepancia en cuanto a su intensidad final.
Europeo
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Wind3285032and32mslp_Asia_120.gif)
GFS sigue pronosticando un Tifón como mínimo categoría 3...
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-342.gif)
Se me olvido en el Post anterior el pronostico y seguimiento que están realizando desde el Servicio Meteorológico de Taiwan.
2012/07/28 06:00, Tropical Storm SAOLA (1209), Center Location 15.0N 125.9E, Movement: NW BECOMING NNW 14KM/HR BECOMING 10KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 995 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 20m/s, Gust 28m/s, Radius of 15m/s 120km.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/2012SAOLA-072806_WSP_0.png)
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?
Se espera por el S.M.T que Saoala llegue a la isla como un potente Tifón.
;)
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Aumenta la convección profunda combinada con una buenos topes fríos a medida que se desplaza lentamente rumbo noroeste.
AVN
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-13.jpg)
Loop IR CIMSS
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/movie.gif)
Ya se están pronunciando las numerosas agencias oficiales que siguen al sistema, pero solo pondré la de la marina americana, el parte numero tres esta al caer.
;)
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Puede pasar lo mismo que el anterior sistema. ¿Es que no valoran que al ir acercándose a la costa, la SST va en aumento, al contrario que la cizalladura? Luego viene un RI y como dice Pepe, los cogen a todos en bragas. ???
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GFS viene con novedades, pues Saola podría esquivar a Taiwan de un impacto directo.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-237.gif)
:-X
Mientras tanto Samoa aumenta su fuerza y en estos momentos esta desarrollando un gigantes CDO que cubre todo su centro.
10WSAOLA.40kts-993mb-160N-1259E
28/0832 UTC 15.6N 126.6E T2.0/2.0 SAOLA
Puede pasar lo mismo que el anterior sistema. ¿Es que no valoran que al ir acercándose a la costa, la SST va en aumento, al contrario que la cizalladura? Luego viene un RI y como dice Pepe, los cogen a todos en bragas.
Yo creo que si que lo valoran, solo que hay muchos intereses económicos por medio.
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Baja un poco su intensidad y la marina intuye que penetrará un poco más al norte de lo previsto anteriormente.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wp1012-1.gif)
WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTREMELY BROAD SYSTEM
THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS COVERED WITH A COLD DENSE OVERCAST. EXTENSIVE
FORMATIVE BANDS ARE NOW MORE DEFINED AND CONTINUOUS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 281133Z 37HZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
DISTINCT LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES AND RJTD RANGING FROM 30 TO 42 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AREA OF
LIGHT (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY
A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOWS, ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE NER, RESPECTIVELY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD TAIWAN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER. DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, BECOMING A TYPHOON
BEFORE TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY LOOSE
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, FAVORING A
STRONGER STEERING RIDGE AND NOGAPS AND GFS DEPICTING AN ABRUPT
DEFLECTION TO THE RIGHT AFTER TAU 12, POSSIBLY HINTING OF EXCESSIVE
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (E-DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
C. AFTER TAU 96, TS SAOLA IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A FLATTER, MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS JAPAN
RE-BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING. THE CYCLONE WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL
INTO TAIWAN AS A STRONG TYPHOON AFTER TAU 96. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ABRUPT AND UNLIKELY
DEFLECTION OF GFS AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE E-DCI AND INCONSISTENT MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY NOGAPS. //
NNNN
Sistema muy peligrosos para los intereses de Taiwan.
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Vaya pedazo de bicho se esta cociendo...
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/rb0-2.jpg)
:cold: Huele a Tifón mucho antes de lo previsto :D
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(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1264.jpg)
Tiene pinta de hacer daño...
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Boletín numero cuatro y donde destaca el incremento significativo del punto máximo de intensidad máxima prevista, pasamos de 75 KT (Tifón Categoría 1) a 90 KT.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wp1012-2.gif)
6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) INDICATIVE OF A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A 281833Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CDO
WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION, WHICH IS BASED ON THE AMSU
IMAGE. A 281226Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH, PRIMARILY, 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND AN ISOLATED 35 KNOT WIND.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE, ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED, NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A WEAK EASTERN STR AND A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA AND JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS.
NOGAPS AND GFS REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH IS INCORRECT DUE TO
ERRONEOUS INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF JAPAN.
THE SECOND GROUPING OF MODELS (JGSM, ECMWF, UKMO AND WBAR) PRESENT A
MORE CONSISTENT FORECAST (AND TIGHT GROUPING) TOWARD TAIWAN WITHOUT
ANY INDICATIONS OF ERRONEOUS CYCLONE INTERACTION. TS 10W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACKERS WITH NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TOWARD
SHANGHAI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER
TAIWAN. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCATING THE SYSTEM CENTER AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
TRACK ERROR DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS
THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO THE STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER
CHINA AND JAPAN. TS 10W SHOULD PEAK AT 90 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL
OVER TAIWAN.//
NNNN
Sin cambio en su Track y a la espera del visible donde se nos mostrará el imponente CDO que se ha generado en las ultimas seis horas.
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El Servicio Meteorológico de Filipinas eleva vientos y los sitúa en estos momentos en 45 KT.
Tropical Storm "GENER" has intensified slightly as it continues to move closer to Extreme Northern Luzon
At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Gener (Saola) located at 16.6° 125.5°E or 310 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.
Signal Warnings
================
Signal Warning #2
-----------------
Luzon Region
------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan Group of Island
3. Babuyan Group of Island
Signal Warning #1
----------------
Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Batanes Group of Island
Additional Information
=========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides Likewise, those living in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm "Gener" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon, Visayas and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Gener" and the southwest monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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Los japoneses elevan vientos máximos en estos momentos en 45 KT.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
6:00 AM JST July 29 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Saola (990 hPa) located at 16.6N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 18.5N 123.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 19.4N 122.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
69 HRS: 20.6N 122.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Bashi Channel
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Aumenta ligeramente su fuerza y mucho ojo al pronostico del GFS.
10WSAOLA.45kts-989mb-184N-1258E
29/0832 UTC 18.6N 125.8E T3.0/3.0 SAOLA
GFS
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-897.gif)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/rbtop0-lalo-16.jpg)
También añadir que hay dos nuevas ondas tropicales por la zona que podrían interferir en el posible virulento desarrollo de SAOLA.
;)
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Elevado nuevamente el pico máximo de intensidad prevista por la marina americana, y según su pronostico :-X Taipei se verá afectada por un posible Categoría 3 (95 KT).
TOWARD TAIWAN WITHOUT ANY INDICATIONS
OF ERRONEOUS CYCLONE INTERACTION. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wp1012-3.gif)
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Topes cada más fríos cubren el centro de Soala.
Loop AVN + Rainbow
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-611.gif)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov
La Agengia Meteorológica de Japón emite un nuevo aviso sobre SAOALA.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (996 hPa) located at 25.8N 145.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 26.7N 143.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
48 HRS: 28.6N 138.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 30.6N 132.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Ellos hacen una medición de vientos con una media de 10 minutos no como la marina que lo hace con una media de 1 minuto.
;)
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Saoala se intensifica nuevamente y puede que finalice el día como Tifón Categoría 1, el europeo estanca durante 48 horas a Saoala en frente de las costas orientales de Taiwan :-X, y el S.M.Taiwan emitirá avisos sobre el sistema cada séis horas.
10WSAOLA.50kts-985mb-188N-1252E
29/0832 UTC 18.6N 125.8E T3.0/3.0 SAOLA
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-951.jpg)
::)
Antes he puesto el penúltimo parte del JMA, el actual es el siguiente:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (985 hPa) located at 18.2N 124.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 19.9N 123.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.6N 123.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.4N 122.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - South of Okinawa
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:cold: :cold: :cold:
Luzón se esta comiendo lo que no esta escrito indirectamente y Soala cada vez mostrando un aspecto más amenazador, los topes siguen enfriándose cada vez más rápido alrededor de su centro.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-14.jpg)
Mantiene intensidad.
-
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-341.gif)
Center Temp : -76.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C
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Aumenta un poco más su fuerza y destacar el bestial tamaño del sistema.
10WSAOLA.55kts-982mb-193N-1248E
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/LATEST-34.jpg)
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La marina aumenta a 100 KT el pico máximo que podría tener Saoala y mantiene Track en su ultimo boletín.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/k.jpg)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn-l-10.jpg)
Saoala- Damrey y las otras dos Ondas Tropicales...
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Seguimiento de nivel :aplause:
Bonito sistema este Saoala, que mantiene esos topes fríos.
(http://i46.tinypic.com/in68vs.jpg)
Enorme seguimiento ;)
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Visible :-X
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/vis0-4.jpg)
Gracias Pepe ;)
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Tifón Categoría 1 (65 KT)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/78253456.jpg)
Pico aumentado a 105 KT.
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Me parece que esta inmerso en una fase de rapada intensificación a raíz de la ultima imagen del canal AVN... :-X
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-lalo-20.jpg)
Ese Eye tan pequeñito denota que la presión va a caer literalmente y los vientos no son para nada los actuales 65 KT.
Se me olvido comentar que la marina americana ya no tiene previsto que Saoala aterrice en Taiwan de manera directa, pero sus efectos se harán notar por su relativa cercanía.
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Radar de Taiwan
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-806.gif)
http://www.cwb.gov.tw
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Según la Navy, baja a 55 Kts. Algo de aire seco se le está colando por la parte Norte y NE del sistema. Supongo que será algo transitorio. ???
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Según la Navy, baja a 55 Kts. Algo de aire seco se le está colando por la parte Norte y NE del sistema. Supongo que será algo transitorio. ???
El que esta en plan chupón a base de bien es su hijo Damrey, creo que no hay intrusión de aire seco en Saoala, pero no entiendo la bajada de velocidad de vientos ???
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/2012WP10_16KMGWVP_201207301732.gif)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wv0-lalo-2.jpg)
;)
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El JTWC confirma la bajada de intensidad, a la vez que una rebaja sustancial en el pico máximo de intensidad prevista, pasamos de 105 KT a 90 KT
WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS A THROUGH RE-
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS LED TO THE
SYSTEM BEING DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON LEVELS TO TROPICAL STORM LEVELS
FOR THE PAST THREE BEST TRACK POSITIONS. AS THE SYSTEM WAS
PREVIOUSLY BEING BEST TRACKED AT 65 KNOTS, THIS REPRESENTS A SMALL
DECREASE OF 10 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES INDICATING 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN MAINTAINING INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT RECENT
INDICATIONS IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE OUTFLOW
CHANNELS FOR TS 10W ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL
LEAD TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND TRACK AS TS 10W REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED ON THE
RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED BUT IS NOT DIRECTLY REFLECTED ON
THE WARNING GRAPHIC AS THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE BUILDING NER UNTIL A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) PICKS UP AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO VENT THE SYSTEM AS IT
INTENSIFIES THROUGH TAU 60. MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS NOT WELL
REPRESENTED BY THE GRAPHICAL FORECAST, BUT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
AROUND 105 KNOTS BY TAU 60. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST
AFTER TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 10W WILL TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BEYOND TAU
72 AS TS 10W MAKES LANDFALL. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT TS 11W, CURRENTLY LOCATED 195 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, WILL MOVE WITHIN RANGE OF TS 10W, CAUSING A WEAK
BINARY INTERACTION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT
THIS, AS THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS TS 11W WELL TO THE
NORTH OF TS 10W. BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER BINARY
INFLUENCE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Si ellos lo dicen ??? luego pasa lo que pasa y ZAS...
30/2032 UTC 20.8N 123.9E T4.0/4.0 SAOLA
;)
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(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-1360.gif)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/
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Esta ligeramente afectado por una cizalladura moderada de componente noreste, pero a medida que se vaya desplazando a Taiwan será mucho más favorable.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1439.jpg)
Sin cambios en cuanto a su intensidad.
;)
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Visible
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1034.jpg)
Taiwan se va a regar a base de bien :-X
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A medida que asciende de latitud y tal como comentaba Hardstyle la cizalladura le va dando un respiro y trata de cerrar el anillo por su parte Norte y NW. En el último parte se da cuenta de ello y en las imágenes del SAT se nota cierta mejora, por lo que la Navy le sube de nuevo a cat.1. :P
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La marina rectifica nuevamente y eleva la intensidad máxima a 105 KT a la vez que Saoala se fortalece ligeramente.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wp1012-4.gif)
31/1432 UTC 22.1N 124.0E T4.5/4.5 SAOLA
10WSAOLA.75kts-967mb-224N-1237E
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/rbtop0-lalo-17.jpg)
Sigue estando afectado por la cizalladura. ::)
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SAOLA sube a 90 Kts. Lo preocupante es que va a terminar confluyendo con DAMREY en la misma región de China, ya de por sí muy castigada por las lluvias monzónicas en el pasado mes. A perro flaco, todo se le vuelven pulgas. :cold: :cold:
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SAOLA sube a 90 Kts. Lo preocupante es que va a terminar confluyendo con DAMREY en la misma región de China, ya de por sí muy castigada por las lluvias monzónicas en el pasado mes. A perro flaco, todo se le vuelven pulgas. :cold: :cold:
Pues mira que aspecto presentaba el radar de Taiwan en las pasadas ultimas cuatro horas... :cold: :cold: :cold:
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-1719.gif)
http://www.cwb.gov.tw
La ciudad de Taipingshan registra en las pasadas 24 horas la cantidad de 638.00 mm :laleche:
Dejo el ultimo y espectacular visible de ayer.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-431.jpg)
;)
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(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Saola_DamreyA20122140200.jpg)
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Saola_Damrey.A2012214.0200.2km.jpg
Saoala ha dejado su fatídico rastro por Luzón, doce muertos.
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Fiasco nuevamente de la marina americana y unos cuantos de modelos... Taiwan contra todo pronostico se acaba de comer un Tifón de lleno, cuando el ultimo pronostico del JTWC era el siguiente:
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/wp1012-5.gif)
Y al final...
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Untitled-1796.gif)
:-X
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Taiwan se esta comiendo la de dios, algunas estaciones del noreste del país están superando los 1500 mm en 48 horas :(
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-lalo-21.jpg)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/2012-08-02_0520.jpg)
La marina ha rectificado :rcain:
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(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1961.jpg)
;)
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Tremendos datos de precipitación para todo el norte de Taiwan, más de 2000 mm en 48 horas en alguna que otra estación del noroeste del país.
Ultimas 24 horas
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/5-8.jpg)
Taiwan a liposuccionado a lo bestia a Saoala, apunto de perder la categoría de T.Tropical.
10WSAOLA.45kts-989mb-257N-1213E
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http://www.youtube.com/v/ahjIFCus2Ks?version=3&
;)
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Tropical Storm 10W (Saola) Warning #25 Final Warning
Issued at 03/0300Z
Por lo que queda finalizado el seguimiento del inesperado Saoala ;)
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Sin embargo, ayer todavía se registraban precipitaciones superiores a 300 mm en varias estaciones filipinas, y en una nota se las atribuían a Saoala, el cual parece que hace días que está finiquitado, salvo que haya quedado algo de convección "remanente".
http://world.time.com/2012/08/07/manila-floods-displacing-tens-of-thousands/#a-man-holds-his-shoes-as-he-swims-in-floodwaters-along-a-road-in-marikina-metro-manila