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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Torrelloviedo en Jueves 16 Junio 2011 18:03:13 pm
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La diferencia con ADRÍAN radica en que esta pertubación está mucho más cerca de la costa, y con posibilidades de afectar a tierras mexicanas. De ahí, que la intensidad que marcan los modelos, sea menor
Y cuanto más se acerque en destino final, a Puerto Vallarta, menos fuerza
A ver que queda
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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8) 8)
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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Sube al 50% y se concentran más, aunque sigue muy cercana a la costa.
1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
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El CNH sigue señalando que las condiciones ambientales , tanto SST como cizalladura son favorables para el desarrollo del 92E.
Loop
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-19.gif)
Los modelos siguen marcando como mínimo una Tormenta Tropical una vez inicie su giro al W.
:sonrisa:
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Código rojo (60%) para el desarrollo tropical en las próximas 48 horas.
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/two_epac-1.gif)
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A puntito de caramelo. A partir de esta noche hora española, podemos tener nueva depresión. ::)
1. RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
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Menudo "boloncio" se ha formado en menos de 4 horas. El NHC le da ya el 90%, aunque visto lo visto, podría estar ya formada mientras escribo estas palabras. :o
EDITO: 25 Kt. 1006 mb. Lanzado el ATCF en la página de la Marina.
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ATCF renumera , Cerca de tener a la DT02E ::)
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922011_ep022011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106191257
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END.
EDITO : tenemos a la DT02E .02ETWO.25kts-1006mb-130N-989W
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El NHC actualiza 8)
..NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Sras. y Sres. aquí el que no corre vuela. Tenemos ya a T.T. BEATRIZ y todo deprisa y corriendo ;D
A pesar de que en la discursión da un pronóstico de fortalecimiento a HURACAN en la mañana del próximo Martes, visto el buen flujo de salida y las condiciones en que se encuentra en estos momentos, me atrevería a decir que será antes, en la tarde del Lunes.
WTPZ32 KNHC 191731
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.1N 100.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST.
BEATRIZ IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.67 INCHES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD AS MUCH AS 35 MILES...
55 KM...FROM THE CENTER.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Continuadas explosiones convectivas con unos topes verdaderamente fríos.
Loop
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-24.gif)
SMN
Sección D. Pronóstico de 48 a 96 horas
- “Beatriz se intensificará a huracán categoría I y se localizará a 75 km al Sur Manzanillo, Col., su relativa cercanía a territorio mexicano generará amplia zona de fuerte actividad convectiva ocasionando nublados densos con potencial de lluvias intensas a torrenciales, tormentas e intervalos de chubascos en los estados del Occidente, Centro y Sur del País, sobre todo en Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima y Jalisco.
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Ya va por los 50 kts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 15.7N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 16.6N 103.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.6N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 18.7N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 20.2N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
El Maestro Stewart ha vuelto :D
El aspecto actual se encuentra bastante influenciado aún por su cercanía a la costa, a ver como es capaz de evolucionar en las próximas horas.
(http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/8206/084113w5nlsm1.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/143/084113w5nlsm1.gif/)
8)
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Joder.....menudas explosiones se ven en el último visible. Aunque esté cercana a la costa, para mí que se está preparando ya para el "gran salto" :cold:
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BEATRIZ Gana fuerza 8)
02EBEATRIZ.55kts-995mb-161N-1027W
Webcam Acapulco
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-acapulco.html
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-ixtapa.html
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Hay cazahuracanes aproximándose a la tormenta
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En el siguiente parte ya tendría que ser Huracán.
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-27.gif)
El anillo convectivo cerrándose.
Track
02E BEATRIZ 110620 1800 16.6N 102.9W EPAC 60 989
02E BEATRIZ 110620 1200 16.1N 102.7W EPAC 55 995
02E BEATRIZ 110620 1200 16.1N 102.7W EPAC 55 995
02E BEATRIZ 110620 0600 15.4N 102.3W EPAC 50 997
02E BEATRIZ 110620 0600 15.4N 102.3W EPAC 50 997
02E BEATRIZ 110620 0000 14.7N 101.5W EPAC 40 1001
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THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT BEATRIZ
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
De momento, se queda en el "a punto"
BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK OF 80 KT FROM 24 TO 36
HOURS
Pico de 80kt hasta el miercoles como mucho...
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BEATRIZ se convierte en Huracán , Continuará ganando fuerza si aún permanece sobre las aguas del pacífico pero en estos momentos ya está demasiado cerca de tierra.
8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.0°N 103.5°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Bien sencillo...
IF THE CENTER DOES NOT CROSS THE COAST...THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR BEATRIZ
TO MOVE INLAND...IN WHICH CASE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WOULD BE LIKELY
Si el centro permanece fuera de tierra, el ambiente permitirá que crezca algo. SI entra en tierra, las montañas de México lo impedirán
Y parece que gana el segundo caso, porque el ojo que se muestra incipiente, se aproxima bastante a la costa
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Graves inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra que esta causando Beatriz a lo largo de 200 millas en la costa E.
En las ultimas imágenes ya se puede observar que su impacto con la costa a dejado a Beatriz hecha un Cristo.
02E BEATRIZ 110621 1200 19.3N 105.1W EPAC 70 981
Loop MIMIC
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-30.gif)
Beatriz dirección Cabo Corrientes.
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Formidable captura del MODIS sobre Beatriz. :P
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/560840main_20110621_Beatriz-MODIS_full.jpg)
Loop NOAA GOES 11
(http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff516/MrHardstyle1980/Untitled-34.gif)
;)
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BEATRIZ ya es tormenta tropical se ve muy degradada , aquí en mexico ya dejó 3 muertos . :(
http://www.terra.com.mx/noticias/articulo/1140044/Se+degrada+Beatriz+a+tormenta+tropical+deja+3+muertos.htm
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...BEATRIZ WEAKENING QUICKLY...
BEATRIZ HAS LIKELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION EARLIER TODAY AND INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR
ORIGINATING FROM MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST
Se ha venido abajo a la velocidad de la luz
Seguirá la logica de ser remanente en poco mas de dos días, sino antes, combinando mas aire seco con aguas cada vez mas frias
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Ni 60 horas, ni leches...
...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
THE INTERACTION OF BEATRIZ WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF MEXICO EARLY TODAY HAS DEALT A LETHAL BLOW TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE