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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico SurOeste => Mensaje iniciado por: Ermuleto en Sábado 12 Enero 2008 16:10:04 pm
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Sistema Tropical 99P
15 kts - 1006 mb
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Este sistema está localizado al norte de Fidji.
Saludos.
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Al final se decidió y ya es una Tormenta Tropical... 35 kts - 996 mb
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CICLÓN TROPICAL GENE CATEGORÍA 1
990mb y 40kt
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 7 EAST AT 280000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.0 SOUTH 178 .7 EAST AT 280000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 176.5E AT 281200 UTC
AND NEAR 18.9S 174.5E AT 290000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Se encuentra atravesando Fiji. Este ciclón tiene circulación retrógrada, y me da en la punta e la nariz, que volverá sobre sus propios pasos
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GENE sube como la espuma, y con el inconveniente de navegar entre tierra :o :o
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 281200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.1 SOUTH 177.3 EAST AT 281200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING
TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.8S 175.0E AT 290000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.0S 173.1E AT 291200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 074. THE NEXT GALE WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED AT 281900UTC
Tambien intenta desarrollar ojo, lo que sería dificil de comprender al estar pasando por tierra. Pero creo que la epxlicación está en que el centro del Ciclón está bordeando la costa N de la isla de Suva
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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28/0830 UTC 17.7S 177.9E T3.5/3.5 GENE -- South Pacific Ocean
GENE se encontraría en un nivel de intensidad parecido a GULA..................
Adjunto mapa de previsión de trayectoria, y camino ya recorrido, según el Servicio Meteorológico de FIJI... Por cierto, habrá que estar atentos a la actualización de mapas de lluvia recogidos hoy en las islas :cold:
Mapa adjunto © 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service
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Ciclón Tropical GENE - Tormenta Tropical -
45 kts - 989 mb
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TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 1 EAST AT 290000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.9 SOUTH 176.1 EAST AT 290000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 07 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 174.2E AT 291200 UTC
AND NEAR 17.5S 172.2E AT 300000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 076
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Brutales, las cantidades de lluvia que ha dejado 'GENE' en las islas FIJI:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
© 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service
Por otro lado, ahora que el ciclón se aleja de este archipiélago, parece que se está debilitando... Y así lo confirma el boletín de discusión del Servicio Meteorológico de FIJI:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/0839 UTC 2008 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 18.5S 175.5E AT
290600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.
CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS IT DEVELOPS WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ABOUT THE WESTERN FLANK. SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SHEAR ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK. STEERING INFLUENCED BY A
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER AREA WITH A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC GENE. THIS SUPPORTS THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DRIVING THE CYCLONE ALONG A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.95 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 18.7S 174.1E MOV SW 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 18.9S 172.0E MOV SW 10KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.5S 170.5E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 169.2E MOV WSW 7KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 291430 UTC.
Parece que 'GENE' ya ha dado de sí todo lo que ha podido...
Según Wunderground, vida de GENE:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
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18 GMT 01/27/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08 17.3S 178.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 17.8S 176.0E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08 18.5S 175.1E 50 Tropical Storm
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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GENE se encuentra a punto de caramelo para ser designada como Ciclón Tropical Severo cat. 3:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 173 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 300000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.5 SOUTH 173.3 EAST AT 300000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.7S 171.8E AT 301200 UTC
AND NEAR 19.1S 170.3E AT 310000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING
Cizalladura por debajo de 10kt, oceano a 27-28ºC, continuas explosiones en torno al centro, circulación poco elongada, niveles de TCHP en torno a 100... En poco tiempo subirá de rango
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Según el NRL, tenemos a GENE con 60 KT de vientos sostenidos y 978 milibares... Ahora mismo, la imagen en modo IR no permite ver el ojo, pero usando otros sensores, descubrimos que sí existe:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png) (http://img152.imageshack.us/my.php?image=genefr2.jpg)
Debe de estar muy cerca de alcanzar la categoría 1 de huracán, en la escala de Saffir-Simpson.
Datos que extraigo del JTWC:
ZCZC 230
WTPS11 NFFN 301200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1305 UTC 2008 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.6S 172.4E
AT 301200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR. CYCLONE MOVING WEST
ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.
COLD TOPS OVER LLCC HAS ENABLED INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE LAST 12
HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL
INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 48HRS. CIMSS SHOWING
MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
DVORAK ANALYSIS, EMBEDDED CENTRE GIVES DT=5.0, BUT DVORAK BASED ON
MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND TAKES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC NEAR 19.4S 170.8E MOV WSW 9KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC NEAR 19.8S 169.3E MOV WSW 6KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC NEAR 20.3S 168.4E MOV WSW 5KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC NEAR 21.0S 167.9E MOV SW 5KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
Por lo que su pico de intensidad podría llegar a los 90 KT.............................. Y por lo comentado en el análisis, GENE correspondería con un categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir-Simpson.
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Cuidadín con GENE, que ha escondido su centro bajo un manto de potente convección. Me huele a que busca desarrollar un ojo (y no sería su primer intento). Último parte de Fiji:
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 172 DECIMAL 4 EAST AT 301200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.6 SOUTH 172.4 EAST AT 301200 UTC.
CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVING WEST ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.4S 170.8E AT 310000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.8S 169.3E AT 311200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 082
A puntito de caramelo... ::)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [965HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 171 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 310000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.1 SOUTH 171.3 EAST AT 310000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 170.1E AT 311200 UTC
AND NEAR 20.4S 169.2E AT 010000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 084.
En las animaciones del visible, se observa como hace unas horas su ojo era visible nitidamente. Ahora parece que lo ha tapado, pero en otro tipo de sensores (imagen en rojo) se observa como lo mantiene. El ojo se encuentra bajo un CDO:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Menudo aspecto presentaba GENE durante esta mañana.................. Ahora adjuntaré una imagen. Primero, boletín de aviso y análisis extraído del JTWC:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0811 UTC 2008 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.4S 171.2E
AT 310600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 6 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
PERSISTING OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED
BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW
POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 18 HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER
SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD
CENTRE PATTERN WITHIN WHITE DT=5.0,MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5, THUS
T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES
THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 170.3E MOV SW 3KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SSW 3KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.7E MOV S 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.5E MOV S 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png) (http://img413.imageshack.us/my.php?image=2008sh151kmirimg2008013rm2.gif)
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Ojo a los datos que recoge el Wunderground para este ciclón... que proceden en origen a los datos del JTWC:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 01/27/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08 17.3S 178.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 17.8S 176.0E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08 18.5S 175.1E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/29/08 18.6S 174.0E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/30/08 18.7S 172.8E 70 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/30/08 19S 172.0E 100 Category 2
06 GMT 01/31/08 19.4S 171.1E 90 Category 1
Dato confirmado........ GENE ha sido un categoría 2 en la escala de Saffir Simpson:
31/0230 UTC 19.2S 171.5E T5.0/5.0 GENE -- South Pacific Ocean
CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
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O lo que es lo mismo, un señor Ciclón, que veremos que efectos causa en Vanuatu y proximidades:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 170.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 310537Z 85 GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH-
EAST QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 80 TO 85-KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES
Segun la prevision pasara por el Este de la isla de Nueva Caledonia e ira perdiendo algo de intensidad
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CICLÓN TROPICAL SEVERO GENE
948mb y 100kt
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
:cold: :cold:
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GENE para. Ralentiza su movimiento, e incluso diría que ha vuelto ligeramente sobre sus propios pasos. Los 100kt de vientos sostenidos me parecen excesivos, puesto que el diametro de las paredes del ojo (que mantiene, lo que pasa que en el visible no se muestra) ha disminuido bastante. Además, la cizalladura ha subido hasta 20-30kt. Calculo que ahora mismo esté en torno a unos 90kt de vientos sostenidos, más o menos:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 01/27/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08 17.3S 178.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 17.8S 176.0E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08 18.5S 175.1E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/29/08 18.6S 174.0E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/30/08 18.7S 172.8E 70 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/30/08 19S 172.0E 100 Category 2
06 GMT 01/31/08 19.4S 171.1E 90 Category 1
18 GMT 01/31/08 19.8S 170.6E 115 Category 3
06 GMT 02/01/08 20.1S 170.7E 105 Category 2
ROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0818 UTC 2008 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 20.4S 170.8E
AT 010600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35
MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSIST OVER LLCC.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST
STEERING FLOW. CIMSS SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND CENTRE EMBEDDED IN B
SHADE YIELDING A DT=5.0, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.0, THUS
T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY
FURTHER BEFORE WEAKENING IT WHILST ON A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.1S 170.7E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.8S 170.6E MOV S 4KT WITH 95KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC NEAR 22.5S 170.6E MOV SSW 4KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC NEAR 23.6S 170.6E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 011430 UTC.
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GENE continua perdiendo fuerza. Su centro se muestra desorganizado. La cizalladura sobre el sistema supera los 20kt, y siendo un Ciclón Tropical de tan solo 70kt (Huracán cat. 1), es lógico que dicha cizalladura interfiera en su organización. Además, se encuentra próximo a aguas "no-tropicales", con lo que será complicado saber si dicha pérdida de estructura se debe a que quiere comenzar una fase de extratropicalización. Algunos diagramas de fase concurren este hecho.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 170 DECIMAL 9 EAST AT 020600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.0 SOUTH 170.9 EAST AT 020600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 170.8E AT 021800 UTC
AND NEAR 23.9S 171.0E AT 030600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 005
THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY UNDERGOING INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR HENCE
CLOUD BANDS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK IS
BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE LLCC. COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. OUTFLOW STILL GOOD SOUTH AND FAIR TO NORTH.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBEDDED W YIELDING A DT=4.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE THUS T4.0/4.5/S0.0/6HRS. CONSENSUS TRACKS THE CYCLONE SOUTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Perdón por el inciso. Os importa si de vez en cuando hago enlace a vuestras imágenes para visualizarlas en otros foros extranjeros? Son sobre meteorología y náutica, y me interesan los sistemas que afecten a Australia y Nueva Zelanda.
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Perdón por el inciso. Os importa si de vez en cuando hago enlace a vuestras imágenes para visualizarlas en otros foros extranjeros? Son sobre meteorología y náutica, y me interesan los sistemas que afecten a Australia y Nueva Zelanda.
Yo no tengo problema alguno............. En Cazatormentas también tienes amplio seguimiento a los ciclones tropicales :P
Por cierto que GENE sigue ahí... Parece que extratropical pero, en apariencia, no tanto...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)