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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Sagrajeño en Jueves 11 Octubre 2012 20:20:25 pm
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Saludos compañeros, el nhc desde hace unos cuantos dias esta siguiendo este sistema.
Se trata del actual invest 97 E.
Actualmente tiene un 40 % de posibilidades
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111303
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2012, DB, O, 2012101000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972012
EP, 97, 2012101012, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1004W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2012101018, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1015W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2012101100, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1025W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 97, 2012101106, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1035W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1045W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Sube hasta el 40%
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Mejora de forma bastante significativa.
Las posibilidades de desarrollo son de un 70 %.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Posdata: El nombre que toca es Paul.
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Saludos compañeros, el invest 97 E ya esta completamente desarrollado.
Salvo sorpresa, en el siguiente parte que emita el nhc podría ser depresión tropical o bien nombrarla directamente como tormenta tropical Paul.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM IS FORMING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...AND IT HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Un saludo.
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Y rápidamente asciende a Tormenta Tropical y nombrada con el nombre de PAUL.
16EPAUL.35kts-1005mb-140N-1128W
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/tc_home2-8.jpg)
Buen seguimiento Sagrajeño ;)
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Las posibles trayectorias de PAUL.....el pronóstico da para que llegue a huracan y que se venga para a baja california. :o
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Paul alcanza una fuerza de 45 kt con una presión minima de 1001 mb.
Paul tiene 36 horas mas para ser más fuerte , apartir de ese instante comenzará a perder fuerza.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140855
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS A BIT
MISLEADING. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAS FORMED IN RECENT HOURS...AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX....WITH THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATED BY 20-30 N MI. WHILE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...THE 0526 UTC
ASCAT PASS ONLY SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THESE DATA.
PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WESTERLY HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. THE CYCLONE IS
REACHING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
END OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
26N 122W SHOULD APPROACH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
CAUSING PAUL TO TURN ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER 96 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS
VERTICAL INTEGRITY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THE EASTERLY SHEAR PLAGUING PAUL HAS APPARENTLY NOT SUBSIDED...EVEN
THOUGH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A
SHARP INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY IN 48-72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARING IT...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH SSTS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BE
DECREASING. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS...AND COULD DECOUPLE ONCE THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY
HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE LGEM AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS ICON AND IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 14.3N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Paul a punto de ser huracán, ya tiene 60 kts con 991 mb....ya no se espera un impacto directo a la península de baja california, se acercará a eso del martes para ir paralelo a la península y ya el miércoles dar un giro a aguas abiertas :risa:
Editado: Ya Paul oficialmente Huracán, 65kts 988 mb, saludos.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Asi es heliph18 tenemos al huracán de categoria 1 Paul.
Por lo demas es el 10 huracán de esta temporada hasta el momento.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150854
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
PAUL IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -85C NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT INNER CORE OF PAUL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
EYEWALL WIDENING ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING PAUL A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE
HURRICANE IS OVER 26C TO 28C WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND THAT
COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO LOSE
STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED N
MI WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA. THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
CAUSING PAUL TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS ARE ABOUT 80 N MI AT 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 16.2N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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Sube hasta los 75 Kts. y se observa un incipiente OJO en las imágenes del SAT, por lo que ya no debe de andar lejos de la Cat.2 ::)
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Y hace acto de aparición su ojo, con sus 80 kts y 979 mb actualmente ya rosa la categoría 2 :o
Su influencia ya se está dando a notar por la humedad que arrastra y aquí, nublado hasta el miércoles....aun no se sabe si entrará a la península o dará su giro antes de tocar tierra...hay que ver que pasa, saludos.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Alcanza la cat. 2 con 95 Kts - 968 Mb.. A ver esa Cat. 3 si cae esta noche. Impresionante. ::)
EDITO: Alcanza la Cat. 3 con 105 Kts - 960 Mb. por lo que ya es MAJOR :o
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Cambios de la trayectoria prevista para PAUL, por parte del NHC. La Navy aun no se ha pronunciado, pero puede llegar a impactar como Cat. 3 en las costas de Baja California Sur. :cold: :cold:
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Cambios de la trayectoria prevista para PAUL, por parte del NHC. La Navy aun no se ha pronunciado, pero puede llegar a impactar como Cat. 3 en las costas de Baja California Sur. :cold: :cold:
:cold:
Zona muy vulnerable a este tipo de eventos... y mucho más con todo un Categoría 3.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/rbtop-animated-1.gif)
Gracias por el seguimiento, yo ando muy liado ;)
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Tremendo Paul, ha tenido una Ri de libro. :o
La evolución en las ultimas 12 horas ha sido brutal.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152044
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
PAUL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TODAY. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW CONSISTS OF A
SYMMETRIC AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE HAS ALSO
WARMED CONSIDERABLY WHILE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED
TO 5.5 AND LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 6.1. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105
KT...MAKING PAUL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. PAUL SHOULD BE STEERED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CARRY PAUL
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BEND NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE THAT PAUL HAS UNDERGONE TODAY
SHOULD SOON COME TO A CLOSE. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO
MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY DECREASE. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...BUT THE RATE OF
WEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE
SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT
IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AFTER 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION
OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 18.4N 114.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Gracias por la colaboración en el seguimiento.
Un saludo.
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Paul baja a cat. 2 con 95kts y 967 mb...y desde hace ya un par de horas el extremo sur de la península de baja california comienza a sentir sus efectos de tormenta tropical de ráfagas de hasta 50 km/hr....se reporta lluvia de 32mm :o
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
También hay que comentar que la trayectoria se ajusta aun mas sobre tierra :O
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Paul comienza entrar a tierra cerca del puerto de san carlos, baja california sur, como cat 2 con 90kts (970mb)....sigue existiendo el riesgo moderado que Paul brinque la península y golpee el sur del estado de Sonora, esperemos que no haga mucho desastre :cold:
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Paul ya impactó la baja california sur y se degrada a cat1...sigue muy fuerte paul con 80 kts y 975 mb (según noaa)....los modelos ya no ven que entre al golfo y gire antes para ir a mar abierto :o
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Paul se ha desintegrado totalmente después de impactar contra las costas de la Península de California.
(http://i45.tinypic.com/2epilx4.jpg)
Todo el pescado está vendido me parece a mí...