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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: HurricaneMex' en Domingo 11 Julio 2010 21:12:12 pm
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Tenemos un nuevo invest en el EPAC
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EP, 96, 2010071118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 925W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ
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Pues de desarrollarse, toca Estelle.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
A ver que dicen los dinámicos, por que GFS y CMC ven desarrollo, que por cierto, el NHC ya la tenía vigilada desde el atlántico, cuando le dió hace dos dias 0% de chance.
8)
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Sube al nivel NARANJA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
(http://i28.tinypic.com/27ywsjr.jpg)
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(http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/2678/201007111958aquaxvishkm.jpg) (http://img341.imageshack.us/i/201007111958aquaxvishkm.jpg/)
(http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/5848/ep201096sat.jpg) (http://img692.imageshack.us/i/ep201096sat.jpg/)
(http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/517/ep201096model.gif) (http://img338.imageshack.us/i/ep201096model.gif/)
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1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ç
SHIPS y los globales desarrollan, es solo cuestión de tiempo 8)
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40%, rozando el nivel rojo 8)
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Nada destacable en el sat. de momento....
8)
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Cada vez tiene mejor aspecto... 8)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
1. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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Pues sí que va teniendo mejor aspecto; las condiciones también son buenas para ver el siguiente sistema tropical del EPAC.....
(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/7870/147201096e1.gif)
(http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/5259/147201096e.gif)
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Poco le falta para ser DT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(http://i25.tinypic.com/2v2eiap.gif)
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EP, 06, 2010071418, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1067W, 30, 1006, TD
A ver el parte.... 8)
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Pues eso, tenemos depresión 8)
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR
THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS
ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.9N 107.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.2N 112.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 114.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 17.2N 118.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.6N 122.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
8)
Estos primeros partes son la leche.... ;D
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Trayectoria.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
A ver si se organiza y podemos ver a Estelle en las próximas horas.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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mmm....a ver si no va a salir Estelle de aqui.... :-\
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND ONLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAS IT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5...RESPECTIVELY...BUT A 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CAUGHT THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED NO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN CASE THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT IT IS
REASONABLE THAT THIS COULD BE A 25-KT SYSTEM.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26.5C BY DAY 3. NONE OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING BY 48 HOURS WHEN THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 15.2N 108.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 109.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.2N 111.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 112.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.2N 114.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Sin apoyo modelístico, el NHC se lanza a la piscina 8)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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En la discursión sobre el sistema, dicen que la fuerte cizalladura del NNE , está literalmente " friendo " al sistema, que permanece desorganizado y con movimientos erráticos, aunque tiene tendencia de moverse al W y que para cuando esta baje, aproximadamente dentro de tres dias , ya estará navegando sobre aguas de unos 26,5 º C. Así, pocas perspectivas de desarrollo veremos. : (
Saludos.
P.D.: Una última imagen de la 06E en IR. Veremos esta tarde-noche como está en el Visible.
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Pues sí Sudoku, bastante está haciendo....
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
ADT:- CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 997.6mb/ 34.0kt
Como salga Estelle de este ''engendro'', hay que hacerle un monumento.... :P
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Sí, a duras penas se mantiene en una intensidad media de entre 30 a 34 Kt. Y el Visible parece un "Cacaolac" ;D De todas formas, los predictores comentan en el nuevo parte que el sistema se mueve algo más lento de lo que se preveía en un principio y también preveen que pequeñas explosiones convectivas se den alrededor del centro del sistema, una vez que la cizalladura baje de los 25-30 Kt actuales, a los menos de 15 Kt previstos al final del periodo de previsión (36 a 48 h) Los Modelos GFDL y HWRF no le dan más de 40 a 45 Kt. Muy justito lo va a tener :-\
Saludos.
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Cuidado al parte..... ::) :cold:
ADT: CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt
Para mi no es TT, pero a lo mejor para Stewart sí.... ;D
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
8)
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Sin cambios.
UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGED
T2.5/35 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WHILE UW-CIMSS AND CIRA-NESDIS
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT
DURING THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE DATA WOULD GIVE AN
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
SHEARED ABOUT 85 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
DEPRESSION BRIEFLY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY RELAX TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY
36 HOURS. AS THE SHEAR SLOWLY ABATES...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP CLOSER TO AND PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 26C...WHICH
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
En resumen.... ;D
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...WHICH
COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.9N 108.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Stewart...... ???
De verdad que no entiendo nada, ya es baja remanente...
SINCE THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND NO LONGER
SATISFIES THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY.
THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.2N 109.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.8N 111.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 18.6N 115.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z 18.6N 117.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Yo creo que este sistema no ha dicho aún su última palabra... 8)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
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1. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED ABOUT
385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E.
REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
:-[
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Ni el NHC ni JTWC hacen seguimiento de la SIX-E.......... Se acabó!!! ;)