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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Parungo en Sábado 13 Agosto 2011 12:37:01 pm

Título: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este y Central)
Publicado por: Parungo en Sábado 13 Agosto 2011 12:37:01 pm
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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Invest 98E
Publicado por: HurricaneMex' en Sábado 13 Agosto 2011 18:43:02 pm
En poco tiempo tendremos nueva DT

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.


(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Invest 98E
Publicado por: Sudoku en Sábado 13 Agosto 2011 20:18:25 pm
En poco tiempo tendremos nueva DT

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.


(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Pues viendo las últimas animaciones, parece que puede pasar directamente de Invest a T.T. FERNANDA. :o
Saludos.
Título: Re: Invest 98E
Publicado por: diego98 en Sábado 13 Agosto 2011 20:20:53 pm
1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ON A DEVELOPING TREND...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

Ya casi da el brinco  :risa:
Título: Re: Invest 98E
Publicado por: heli_hillo en Domingo 14 Agosto 2011 01:18:29 am
Últimas imágenes del Invest 98E....y ya casi dando la cara como Fernanda, a lo mucho en 24 hr será una TT  ;D
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Invest 98E
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Domingo 14 Agosto 2011 12:09:15 pm
A priori, amenaza para las islas Hawaii
Título: Re: Invest 98E
Publicado por: HurricaneMex' en Lunes 15 Agosto 2011 22:47:24 pm
NUEVA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 06E

06ESIX.30kts-1007mb-121N-1311W

(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Depresion Tropical 06E (Pacifico Este)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Lunes 15 Agosto 2011 23:13:57 pm
Ambiente seco y pequeño tamaño, los mayores handicaps del sistema
Título: Re: Depresión Tropical (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: HurricaneMex' en Martes 16 Agosto 2011 14:46:01 pm
Gana Convección ....

(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Depresión Tropical (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: HurricaneMex' en Martes 16 Agosto 2011 16:16:55 pm
Nace "FERNANDA"

06EFERNANDA.40kts-1004mb-123N-1341W
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Martes 16 Agosto 2011 16:37:48 pm
El CPHC ya vigila a la reciente tormenta

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on tropical depression Six-E, located about 1515 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCMEP1 and WMO header WTPZ21. Tropical depression Six-E is not expected to cross longitude 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility until some time on Thursday.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Wednesday night.
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Martes 16 Agosto 2011 16:49:04 pm
Llega el parte oficial

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

...THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL AWAY FROM
LAND...



SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 134.5W
ABOUT 1775 MI...2855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...40KT...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND
COOLER WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT TIME...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...THE FORECAST WILL
STAY LOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW CLOSE FERNANDA
IS TO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.


Mmm, el NHC recula ligeramente. Dice que un ambiente estable y aguas frias al N del sistema, deben contrarrestar el ambiente favorable de cizalladura a corto plazo. No obstante, como los modelos dan mas fuerza a la tormenta, ellos lo contemplan, aunque tiran por el lado conservador
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Martes 16 Agosto 2011 21:43:01 pm
EP, 06, 2011081618,   , BEST,   0, 119N, 1353W,  45, 1001, TS,  34,

FERNANDA crece

(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)

SHIPS no pasa de 45-50% de humedad en los proximos dias, con cizalladura baja tan solo hasta el jueves. Veremos como le afecta
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: heli_hillo en Miércoles 17 Agosto 2011 04:11:11 am
fernanda mejorando...la imagen dice mas que mil palabras....si los factores le "sonríen" a fernanda, para el jueves seria un huracan, a no ser que lo sea antes...saludos  ;D
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Miércoles 17 Agosto 2011 15:53:51 pm
Parece que FERNANDA nota los efectos del ambiente estable en su trayectoria. La convección ha disminuido bastante

IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD
OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR

(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: heli_hillo en Jueves 18 Agosto 2011 06:03:34 am
Mejoró su condición respecto ayer y es un poco mas fuerte..presión: 997 y rozando la categoría de huracan...aun tengo esperanzas que sea huracan y así no romper la cadenita de huracanes en el EPAC  ;)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Jueves 18 Agosto 2011 15:53:09 pm
FERNANDA ingresa en aguas del CPHC. El NHC no emitirá más avisos

06EFERNANDA.55kts-994mb-134N-1405W

(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)

Se adentra en terreno hostil, por lo que no hay previsión de que gane mas fuerza

SINCE
FERNANDA WILL SOON BE MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS AND
OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este y Central)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Viernes 19 Agosto 2011 15:48:36 pm
FERNANDA aguanta con el estatus de Tormenta, aunque ahora mismo es un punto en el Pacífico

(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Título: Re: Tormenta Tropical FERNANDA (06E Pacífico Este y Central)
Publicado por: Torrelloviedo en Sábado 20 Agosto 2011 11:45:43 am
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii issued the final advisory on former tropical cyclone Fernanda at 500 pm HST this afternoon