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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Sudoku en Jueves 16 Octubre 2014 19:42:30 pm
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Otro más que quiere unirse a la fiesta, en un "mano a mano" con el Pacífico Oeste. Y ya van....... :P
1. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized in
association with a trough of low pressure that extends from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for development of a
tropical cyclone somewhere within this area over the next couple of
days, and if one were to form it would likely move northward or
northwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Regardless of whether or
not development occurs, heavy rains are likely along portions of the
Pacific coast of Mexico from the Gulf of Tehuantepec westward over
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Franklin
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Aumenta sus posibilidades hasta el 80% y cuidado, porque parece que ha puesto ruta directa hacia Acapulco. Lanzada la alerta por formación trpical por parte de la Navy.
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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.4N 99.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT A DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO
12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM THE DEPRESSION WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Veremos a ver hasta dónde llega. ::)
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Nace Trudy como Tormenta Tropical con 35 nudos.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2168/rb0_lalo_sun6.gif)
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Sube hasta los 50kts-999mb, a pesar de estar su centro pegado a la costa. Está dándole a base de bien a los estados costeros del SE mejicanoen forma de lluvias torrenciales que seguro provocarán riadas de lodo y piedras en las laderas. Desde luego este año, está toda la zona del EPAC, que se sale. :o
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Trudy ya es historia tropical.
Even though the cyclone has
dissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly
northeastward over the next couple of days.
Puede que sus remanentes sean parte del germen de un nuevo sistema tropical que se genere en la Bahia de Campeche la semana que viene; o bien que aporte humedad a la zona.