UP30%
LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL LOCALIZADA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE.
ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTA ONDA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A
MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE COMO A 15 MPH.
ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO...DE
CONVERTIRSE EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY
CUBA.
1. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE WEAK REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JOYCE...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...NO
THREAT TO LAND...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 301459
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012
KIRK HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55-60
KT WERE RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT...KIRK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK IS ON
TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST
AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH LIES ON TOP OF
THE NEARLY IDENTICAL TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.
KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS
OF MORE THAN 26C FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE
KIRK IS A SMALL SYSTEM...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERMITTENT
INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT CAN BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS
LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL
IV15.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 27.2N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 28.4N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 30.4N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 32.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 42.2N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 49.2N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Mientras nosotros descansamos Stewart vela por nosotros: :mucharisa:;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Mientras nosotros descansamos Stewart vela por nosotros: :mucharisa:;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
No se que le esta pasando al pequeño gran huracán, esta perdiendo simetria y esta perdiendo el ojo.