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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Parungo en Sábado 21 Agosto 2010 14:23:01 pm
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932010.invest
EP, 93, 2010082106, , BEST, 0, 139N, 934W, 20, 1008, DB
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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::)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
En el satélite se ve bastante bién
(http://i33.tinypic.com/k2bvqp.jpg)
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Sistemas a pares.
9ª Depresión Tropical de la temporada en el EPAC
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep092010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008211938
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
EP, 09, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 139N, 930W, 25, 1007, TD
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...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 93.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.9N 93.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.9N 93.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 13.8N 94.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.7N 95.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 13.7N 96.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 14.0N 98.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Destaco del 1 aviso.....cuidado Kike ::)
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
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De la discusión número 2 ...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/220244.shtml
...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST
THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-60 HOURS. THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS A 85-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A 40-45 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 40 KT OF INTENSIFICATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION
THAT BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ALSO...THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH KEEPS
THE CENTER OFFSHORE...DOES NOT FORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THESE THINGS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DOES NOT CALL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INSTEAD...IT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE BELOW...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
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Imagen del radar.
(http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/1186/ep201009sat.jpg) (http://img836.imageshack.us/i/ep201009sat.jpg/)
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Ya tenemos a FRANK
EP, 09, 2010082212, , BEST, 0, 139N, 950W, 35, 1004, TS
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Así es Kike, y presenta muy buen aspecto.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Trayectorias.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Ships roza los 65 kts en +5 días, pero el ambiente en altura no es muy óptimo, con cizalladuras siempre rondando los 15-20 kts.... :-\
A ver como evoluciona, por que el europeo ha sido muy consitente en este sistema.
;)
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...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.
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NHC otorga en el aviso Nº4 40 kts.
De hecho se plantean que alcance 70 kts
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
Están actualizando ahora.... ;)
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Sale el parte.
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221458
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 2.5
FROM SAB AND 3.0 FROM TAFB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT FRANK IS LOCATED IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THIS...COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS AND A VERY MOIST
LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD TEMPER
INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN 0804 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND 1201 UTC SSM/I PASS WERE HELPFUL IN
LOCATING THE CENTER...WHICH IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
270/6...AS THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE
OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FRANK TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN A DAY OR SO...AND REMAIN ON THAT HEADING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW CLOSE FRANK WILL GET TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS
ABOUT A 20 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AFFECTING ANY INDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.0N 95.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.1N 96.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 14.2N 97.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.6N 99.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.1N 100.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Le suben el pico de intensidad máxima ligeramente. :P
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FRANK se fortalece ...
...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD...CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 95.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Así es, sube a 45 kts.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Eso sí, por otro lado Dvorak otorga 51 kts.
Mucho cuidado no vayamos a tener sorpresas en las próximas 18/24 horas.... ::)
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Modelos dinámicos :
GFDL 12Z : 92 KT en 114 horas
HWRF 12Z : 63 KT en 108 horas
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FRANK se vuelve a fortalecer .
EP, 09, 2010082218, , BEST, 0, 138N, 957W, 50, 1001, TS,
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Esto tiene 50-55 knots fijo.... ::)
(http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/8325/201008221845goes13xvis1.jpg)
8)
Se me coló Kike (otra vez) ;D
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Esto tiene 50-55 knots fijo.... ::)
¡Jodó que sí los tiene......... :o! Carburador puesto a tope y veremos con lo que nos encontramos mañana porque "FRANKi" tiene ganas de dar el cante.
Saludos.
-
Pues otorgan finalmente 50 kts.
EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
...A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER
OF FRANK.
DESPITE SHOWING THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS BY 12 HOURS...THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS HAVE TRENDED SHARPLY UPWARD IN THE
FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING AND AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.9N 96.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 97.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.3N 98.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 100.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 15.4N 101.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 16.5N 104.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
-
Igual, Aviso nº 7, con esos 50 nudos:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 14.3N 97.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 14.5N 98.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 15.7N 101.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.4N 102.8W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 70 KT
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Loop.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
A ver como evoluciona Frank, por que circula muy paralelo a la línea de costa....a ver si no influye mucho en su desarrollo y podemos tener el 3º huracán de la temporada en el EPAC tras casi 2 meses de sequía...
8)
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Pierde fuelle...
EP, 09, 2010082318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 989W, 45, 1000, TS
- Ya lo decía el NHC en su último aviso (nº 8 ):
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 25 KT.
- LLCC parcialmente a la vista:
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/201008231915goes13xvis1km09EFRANK45kts-1000mb-148N-989W100pc.jpg)
-
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/232042.shtml
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO
ERODE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
AT 1800 UTC...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
...
-
Si si....pero el pronostico no lo modifican...
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...THAT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE...ANY SUSTAINED
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.9N 99.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.2N 100.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 101.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 105.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
-
Mantiene los 45 nudos:
- Aviso nº 11: destaco el efecto de la cizalladura impidiendo su organización.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FRANK FROM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.3N 100.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 15.7N 102.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.3N 103.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.0N 105.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.7N 107.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 19.0N 110.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W 45 KT
-
Frank tiene un potencial increíble, pero es que con estos niveles de cizalladura de hasta 20-25 kts no se puede.... :-\
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
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Amanece en el EPAC, y se denota que Frank posee un aspecto muy bueno.
(http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/333/201008241315goes13xvis1.jpg)
Puede que suban a 50-55 kts actualmente.... 8)
-
- ATCF: 55 nudos. ;)
EP, 09, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1011W, 55, 994, TS
-
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 241443
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010
FRANK HAS MADE A RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. A
24/0924Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND
THAT A 75 PERCENT EYEWALL HAD FORMED. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVECTION
IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 OR 55 KT WAS ANALYZED BY BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOTION OF 285/06. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP FRANK MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF U.S. WEST COAST AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND DECREASE THE STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES
FRANK AND ITS WIND FIELD MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANK...THE GFDL SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES NEAR 20 KT CURRENTLY ACROSS FRANK...THE
CYCLONE HAS STILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SIMILAR SHEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FRANK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES AND
WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF
FRANK IS CLOSER TO 15 KT. BY 36 HOURS...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER FRANK BY 48 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANK
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS FRANK WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO WERE DISCONTINUED
EARLIER THIS MORNING.
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALTHOUGH THESE
RAINS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK...THEY STILL POSE A
SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 15.4N 101.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 15.8N 102.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 104.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 106.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.9N 107.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
-
Sagra, en vez de aumentar y poner en negrita al forecaster, mejor será que ''resumas'' la discusion.... ::)
Mas que nada para agilizar un poco el seguimiento....
FRANK HAS MADE A RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. A
24/0924Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND
THAT A 75 PERCENT EYEWALL HAD FORMED
UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES AND
WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF
FRANK IS CLOSER TO 15 KT. BY 36 HOURS...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER FRANK BY 48 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANK
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
;)
-
Tiene muy buena pinta...
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Creo que posee 60 kts, al menos eso pone en el enlace de la imagen, de todas formas creo que el NHC le va a catalogar como Huracán.
No me juego nada, pero..... ::)
-
Pues no, 60 kts
FRANK IS ALSO MOVING
INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR BASED ON UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRANK TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT FORMATION
OF A HURRICANE..
BY DAY
4...FRANK SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
GRADUAL WEAKENING TO ENSUE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 18.1N 108.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 111.2W 75 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 20.2N 112.6W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Todo apunta a que alcanzará la Cat.1
;)
-
No está excesivamente bien organizado (el NHC rebaja su intensidad a 55kt), pero los topes sun una burrada de frios. No me gustaría estar debajo..., o si ;D
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
-
Vuelve a 60 kts en el último parte 8)
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.2N 103.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.6N 105.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.1N 106.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.7N 108.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 18.3N 110.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 21.5N 113.5W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Es un ''quiero y no puedo'' continuo... :-\
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Está a puntito de caramelo....
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
No me fío del Dvorak, que marca 3.4 y 53 kts, poco le falta para alcanzar los 65 kts...
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Yo creo que ya es Huracan. Solo hace falta mirar el satelite ::) ::)
Lo que le hace falta es la mejor formacion del LLCC ;)
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- ATCF: 65 nudos.
EP, 09, 2010082512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1044W, 65, 987, HU
(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q323/parungo/201008251415goes11xvis1km09EFRANK65kts-987mb-165N-1044W73pc.jpg)
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3º Huracán de la EPac 2010:
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES FRANK HAS BECOME
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A VERY COLD CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -86C.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...ALTHOUGH DATA-T NUMBERS WERE A CONSENSUS T5.0/90 KT.
THEREFORE...FRANK IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.6N 104.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 17.0N 106.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.6N 108.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 18.2N 109.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 18.8N 111.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 113.2W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 113.8W 45 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W 35 KT
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He acertado y ya es oficialmente Huracán categoría 1 :D Tiene vientos de 65 kt, lo justo para pasar de estatus ;)
El aspecto es tremendo :o :o :o Solo le falta formar el ojo ;D
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Su trayectória le hace curvarse en unos días al N-NE y encaminarse hacia la Baja California...... Aunque parece que según se desplace hacia el norte las condiciones no serán muy favorable y se debilitará puede dar muchos problemas en esa zona.....
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- ATCF: 70 nudos.
EP, 09, 2010082606, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1081W, 70, 984, HU
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El huarcán Frank mantinene ahora unos vientos sostenidos de 130 kms/h con rachas de cercanas a los 160 kms/h. Parece que aún hoy se podría intensificar algo. Su trayectória sigue siendo sobre al mar sin afectar directamente a las costas de Méjico.
(http://a.imageshack.us/img295/899/2682010frank.gif)
(http://a.imageshack.us/img832/6573/2682010frank1.gif)
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Actualmente posee 75 kts
THE HURRICANE
REGIONAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR
GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE 26 DEGREE C SST ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS AND A MORE STEADY
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME.
Bonito feature
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Frank es un auténtico Crack! Sin duda un huracán fascinante, tanto por su desarrollo como por las condiciones adversas reinantes...
De 10! :master:
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6 muertos y 2 desaparecidos en México que atribuyen a Frank ... aunque lo veo muy alejado de la costa.
http://www.telesurtv.net/noticias/secciones/nota/77220-NN/huracan-frank-deja-seis-muertos-y-dos-desaparecidos-en-mexico/
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6 muertos y 2 desaparecidos en México que atribuyen a Frank ... aunque lo veo muy alejado de la costa.
Tal vez esa nubosidad separada gestada sobre tierra, generada por Frank pero no perteneciente al sistema propiamente dicho.
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Además se ve que la cizalladura comienza a afectarle en el 1º cuadrante....
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FRANK vuelve a fortalecerse..
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.1N 110.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/262030.shtml?
FRANK APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TODAY. AN EYE HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS
EARLIER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED
ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 80 KT.
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Pequeño, pero con estructura compacta
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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FRANK se debilita se encuentra pasando al sur de la isla socorro
AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
ON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 38 KT AND A
PRESSURE OF 997.5 MB.
(http://i35.tinypic.com/2h6axeg.jpg)
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Poco a poco perdiendo intensidad, su trayectória curvará hacia la Baja Califórnia donde seguramente llegará como depresión tropical....salvo sopresas!! ;)
(http://a.imageshack.us/img801/6952/2782010frank.gif)
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Mantiene 65 kts en el ultimo parte, pero con el aspecto que presenta actualmente no pasará de 45-50 kts en el próximo parte... :-X
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
Se espera que se debilite en las próximas 72 horas.
Pobrecillo.... :'(
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Frank comienza a debilitarse claramente.
(http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5289/201008271900goes11xvis1.jpg)
8)
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THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS
La sequedad que siempre domina los aledaños de la Baja California, dicta sentencia
(https://foro.tiempo.com/imagenes/imagen-no-existe.png)
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Y las aguas de la corriente fría de Califórnia también..... ;)
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BYE FRANK... :'(
...FRANK BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.