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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Pacífico Este y Central => Mensaje iniciado por: Pepeavilenho en Martes 10 Julio 2012 22:49:16 pm
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Liebres y liebres por el EPAC, como se lleva comentando días atrás en el Seguimiento General, nuevo sistema con altas posibilidades de desarrollo.
(http://i50.tinypic.com/23ljvd1.gif)
1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(http://i50.tinypic.com/2cwtv8m.png)
Yo creo que Fabio sale de aquí ;D
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Sube hasta el 80%. FABIO cada vez más cerca. ::)
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Cabe la posibilidad que no siga los pasos de Daniel y Emilia, y vire dirección a las costas del sur de la Baja California.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/latest-33.jpg)
Sin cambios a resaltar, 80% y lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica.
;)
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Sube al 100% Me cuesta creer que la estructura y la organización que presenta, tengan tan solo para la Navy 25 kts. ¡Qué conservadores que están este año! ::)
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Según la página de la NOAA, tenemos la 6ª Depresión Tropical de la temporada por el EPAC, a la espera del comunicado del NHC, este es su aspecto actual.
(http://i50.tinypic.com/jfysmt.jpg)
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FABIO a puntito de caramelo. 06ESIX.35kts-1002mb-136N-1069W 8)
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WoW :o
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1495.jpg)
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Bienvenido FABIO ::)
TROPICAL STORM FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FABIO...EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND AN
1121 UTC SSMI PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING A NEARLY
CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD RING UNDERNEATH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THAT BASIS.
A LARGE AND PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS STEERING FABIO ON A WESTWARD
COURSE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8 KT. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN HALF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COUPLE OF CUT-OFF LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST.
UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DANIEL AND EMILIA...FABIO SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY
DAY 5...INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST EXHIBITS
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BECOME IDEAL FOR AN
INTENSE STORM...BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...FABIO SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...AND BE OVER 22-23C WATER BY DAY 5...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LONGER-RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST UNDER THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 13.6N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 14.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.0N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 16.0N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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This GOES-15 image from July 12, 2012 shows the remnants of former tropical storm Daniel heading toward Hawaii, followed by Hurricane Emilia to the east, and further east is Tropical Storm Fabio. Credit: NASA GOES Project.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/603439_413863758660423_1154971032_n.jpg)
www.nasa.gov
06EFABIO.35kts-1002mb-136N-1073W
12/1800 UTC 13.8N 107.6W T3.0/3.0 FABIO
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Se intensifica de manera significativa pues se encuentra en un área con unos niveles muy buenos en contenido de calor oceánico.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/2012EP06_OHCNFCST_201207121200.gif)
06EFABIO.45kts-1000mb-140N-1079W
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/rgb0-lalo.jpg)
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Nuevo comunicado por parte del NHC, donde aumentan ligeramente el pico máximo de intensidad prevista en 70 KT y destacan que se convertirá en Huracán en las próximas e inmediatas horas (36-48 horas), por lo tanto... RI a la vista.
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
FABIO CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THE BAND IS
LONG ENOUGH FOR TAFB AND SAB TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0.
THE WINDS ARE THEREFORE RAISED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A MOTION OF
290/9 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS THE SAME AS EARLIER
TODAY...WITH FABIO EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL
ENVELOPE IS GENERALLY BOUNDED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TO THE EAST AND
THE GFS AND HWRF FARTHER WEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS
HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...
WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
FABIO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING MUCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED
TO OCCUR...HOWEVER...AND FABIO COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS A
TIGHT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARD COLDER WATER IN ABOUT
3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT
THE UPPER BOUND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 14.2N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 14.9N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.6N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.4N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
;)
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Buenos dias.
FABIO se intensifica y alcanza ya los 55 Kts. Su track comienza a curvarse hacia su posible destino: Baja California. Pero según la discursión, la cizalladura moderada de componente NE está afectando al ciclón y continuará haciéndolo, hasta que en unas 48 horas, entre en aguas más frias. De ahí que su tope de intensidad no sobrepase los 70 Kts.
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...FABIO ALMOST A HURRICANE...
Aumenta su fuerza y se sitúa a las puertas de la categoría de huracán - 13/1500Z 15.0N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH - al igual que se incrementa su intensidad máxima prevista - 24H 14/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-254.jpg)
Puede que Fabio termine el día como huracán.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 131435
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS DATA INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS DEVELOPED A
CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK ESTIMATES
AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED AT T3.0...OR 55 KT...AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT JUMPED TO ABOUT 75 KT WHEN AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE
MICROWAVE DATA WAS APPLIED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT
60 KT FOR NOW...AND FABIO APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
HURRICANE.
THE MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO MORE ACCURATELY LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND FABIO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.
A DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO...
AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE OREGON COAST SHOULD
HELP TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FABIO WILL
ULTIMATELY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH BY DAY 5.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING FABIO...BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX FOR A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS ONLY AT 2 PERCENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE NOT SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE FABIO REACHES COLDER WATER
IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 15.0N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.6N 111.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.8N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Berg haciendo horas extras :risa:
;)
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Pues que haga esas horas extras, porque Fabio viene con fuerza.
(http://i47.tinypic.com/2wem8md.jpg)
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Alcanza la categoría de huracán con 70 KT
06EFABIO.70kts-986mb-154N-1110W ::)
;)
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FABIO intensificándose y alcanzando los 80 kts, aunque su aspecto debe de mejorar mucho, en estas próximas 24 h. si quiere resistir los embates de la cizalladura y la futura interacción con una fuerte borrasca atlántica, que entra desde el Pacífico por el W de USA y Canadá.
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Los topes se enfrián, es muy posible que alcance la Cat. 2 en breve. Tiene 36 horas antes de abandonar terreno favorable, pero más por la interaccion con aguas frias, que cualquier otro factor
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Pues no sé en qué estarán pensando los pronosticadores, pero las imágenes hablan por sí solas. En la discursión no le dan "importancia" a que las paredes del OJO cada vez aparecen más firmes y sin embargo, comentan lo de la "cizalladura" del NE que no deja "crecer" al ciclón y de que para cuando decrezca, ya se encontrará sobre aguas más frías. Pero vamos, viendo el caso reciente de EMILIA.... ???
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Monumental fiasco en las previsiones del NHC
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1663.jpg)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/avn0-lalo-18.jpg)
Fiasco con Daniel
Fiasco con Emilia
Fiasco con Fabio...
Categoría 1¿? ::)
Según la previsión del NHC, Fabio tendría que tener en estos momentos 75 KT...
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 957.8mb/107.2kt
:-\
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Boletín especial debido al considerable fortalecimiento de Fabio, aunque creo que vuelven a ser conservadores.
Fabio alcanza la Categoría 2.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142333
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FABIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE
COOLED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT STRENGTHENING...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND WIND RADII
FORECASTS...OTHER THE ADDITION OF 64-KT RADII AT 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
;)
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No os hagáis muchas ilusiones con Fabio...
(http://i46.tinypic.com/ajxc9s.jpg)
Mantiene 90 kts, pero...
THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THIS
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER...AS IT WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS
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Lo de Fabio era esperable. Con una cizalladura favorable, y unos topes enfriandose favorecido por la ausencia de luz solar, que alcanzase la Cat. 2 era posible, y lo fue
Lo he observado muchas veces en el EPAC: lo que más limita su desarrollo es el OHC, sobre cualquier otro factor. Es bastante limitado alejandose de América. Si este fuer a más moderado en el corredor que llega a Hawaii, hablariamos de ciclones mucho más intensos.
En cuanto a FABIO, poco que rascar a medida que suba de latitud, engullido por la masa estable que caracterizan las altas presiones del NE del Pacífico
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Posee actualmente 85 kts, aunque ahora ya sí, va a perder fuelle a marchas forzadas.
THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FABIO MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
(http://i46.tinypic.com/2n7k1e8.jpg)
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Fabio debilitándose rápidamente, la marina le otorga 60 kts, los cuales me parecen excesivos.
(http://i45.tinypic.com/2u55e6a.jpg)
Emilia 2.0
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Bastante está aguantando el bueno de Fabio, 40 kts en estos momentos.
(http://i46.tinypic.com/25s9xcy.jpg)
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Tropical Depression 06E (Fabio) Warning #27 Final Warning
Issued at 18/1600Z
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/tc_home2-1993.jpg)
Buen seguimiento.