Tal como comenta el compañero Hard, ojo con este sistema, que está en una zona privilegiada y se puede convertir en un nuevo SANBA. De momento, tanto la Navy como el JTWC van algo "atrasados" en el pronóstico, pero más vale que se pongan a dia y rápido.
Saludos.
Tal como comenta el compañero Hard, ojo con este sistema, que está en una zona privilegiada y se puede convertir en un nuevo SANBA. De momento, tanto la Navy como el JTWC van algo "atrasados" en el pronóstico, pero más vale que se pongan a dia y rápido.
Saludos.
Ayer miraba el GFS para esa zona y se veía un buen bicho tomando mas o menos la misma ruta que SANBA ¿Será este?
Saludos 8)
Uy, uy, uy,............:-X
Mañana puede que sea todo un mínimo categoría 3. ::)
Tabla de vientos: no utilizan la escala Saffir-Simpson, sino que basan la medición de los vientos con una media de 10 minutos en el caso de la agencia japonesa, y la medición con una media de 1 minuto (similar a la utilizada en el Pacífico oriental y central, asi como en el Atlántico) en el caso de los americanos
WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 18W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 65 KNOT INCREASE (55 TO 120 KNOTS)
AND, BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAS ALSO
COMPLETED A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP FROM 07Z TO 09Z. ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY POLEWARD, THE TRACK MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN
VERY ERRATIC AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS MAY BE SIGNALING
ANOTHER LOOP. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
A 10NM ROUND EYE AND STRONG SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 (115 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES/RJTD, RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE
EVIDENT IN IR. TY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX, WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT
OVER ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (93W)
LOCATED ABOUT 695NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 23/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
JAPAN AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE. DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THE
PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW 140 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE EAST. AS 93W TRACKS NORTHWARD, THE NER IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TY 18W, PROVIDING A
NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND THE STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 18W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A 300NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 WITH TWO
DISTINCT MODEL GROUPINGS. THE EASTERN GROUP, COMPOSED OF UKMO, WBAR
AND JGSM, INDICATES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE WESTERN GROUP,
COMPOSED OF GFDN, ECMWF, NOGAPS, ECMWF AND GFS, FAVORS A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL SOLUTIONS; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A
SPREAD SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK NEAR TAU 24 AND SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS POLEWARD FLOW WEAKENS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED IN
TWO GROUPS AND DIVERGE FURTHER WITH A 635NM SPREAD. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF SOLUTIONS, WHICH
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WITH A RE-CURVE POINT
EAST OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 120, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD
OKINAWA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES.//
NNNN
Mirando las "tripas" del ciclón, parece que se prepara un nuevo ERC. Veremos si se recupera de esta ó ya empieza su declive.
Su estructura es dificilmente mejorable, con un anillo central grande muy profundo y complétamente cerrado. En el ojo se puede apreciar ahora mismo un "stadium effect" casi de libro.
Hard, una disculpa ante todo :master:
Y volviendo a JELAWAT, increíble lo que acabas de postear, segundo ciclo de reemplazo de la pared del ojo en menos de 48 horas y este señor sigue tan campante con esos 130 KT como si fuese nada. No se el pronóstico pero dado esto y viendo la estructura que posee me dá que volverá a ser CAT-5 en cualquier momento. :o :o :o
FKPQ30 RJTD 271800 2012271 1850
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20120927/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: JELAWAT
NR: 31
PSN: N2135 E12355
MOV: N 07KT
C: 920HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 28/0000Z N2230 E12400
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 28/0600Z N2335 E12425
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 28/1200Z N2420 E12500
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/1800Z N2450 E12550
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 95KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20120928/0000Z =
wxtlist.k: done
SUBJ: TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 030
WTPN31 PGTW 272100
1. TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.
El misterio de JELAWAT
Jelawat ha tenido una apariencia clásica en las imágenes satelitales durante su larga andadura como supertifón, con un gran ojo rodeado de intensas tormentas con topes muy fríos. No obstante, en dos momentos de su vida--durante varias horas el 25 de Septiembre(Figura 2), y de nuevo cerca de las 08 UTC del 27 de Septiembre--en ambos casos tanto en el visible como en el infrarrojo mostró una frontera muy rara extendiéndose al norte noroeste desde la parte noreste del ojo extendiendose por una 50 millas. Yo nunca he visto algo así en un ciclón tropical, y me pierdo en tratar de explicar que pasó. El Tifón no estaba lo suficiente cerca de áreas terrestres para que fuese un efecto topográfico y evidentemente no había ni aire seco ni cizalladura que hubiese podido causar una perturbación como esa.